Member Info for extrader

Thanks for this.

(1) Kami Iron is the project that is examined in the March 2025 Investor Presentation (page 22), headlined

"Champion Iron’s Kami Project transaction provides a compelling value comparable for Zanaga"

- with the sole caveat ("Zanaga provides larger production scale at lower capex intensity, significantly lower opex, and attractive proposition – only DRI potential remains to be confirmed")

since addressed, with a read-across valuation on p 23:

Implied Val'n (Kami Precedent 0.3x NAV)

Value per share (GBP) 1.18 1.62 3.11

Multiple Above Current Price (x) 14.7 20.3 38.9

Avg. Annual EBITDA $1,950 $ 2, 450 $3,950

(2) From your link.."The Japanese steelmaker, which has recently acquired U.S. Steel, has been expanding stakes in coking coal and iron ore mines to ensure a stable supply of essential raw materials..."

(3) From the ZIOC Mar 2025 $ 21.5M Placement RNS : "Gulf Iron and Steel (GIS), a consortium of strategic industry entities seeking to develop integrated steel facilities supplied by high-grade pellet feed iron ore TO THE AMERICAS and the Middle East "

(4) Re your Q 'Maybe they could be a possible contributor for a pellet plant?'

Could be:

'Mitsui Iron Ore Development PTY has 4,649 shares in Binding Solutions Ltd, a 5.3% shareholding'...

(5) Re your aside : 'Denis Jnr visited them in August.' Pls say more!

Cheers....and GLA

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-venture-spend-733-million-222807940.htm

Rio Tinto Group and partners Mitsui & Co. and Nippon Steel Corp. will spend $733 million on developing new iron ore mines in the Pilbara region of Western Australia to sustain output from the West Angelas hub.

Note the partners...

Snippet:

.."Rio is contending with falling ore grades and dwindling reserves across several of its current operations, driving the company to invest heavily in the region to sustain production.

The company needs to build a major new mine EVERY YEAR for the rest of this decade to maintain output.

The problem is not company-specific, with other miners in the region also battling with the problem..."

GLA

Note partners:

Rio Tinto Group and partners Mitsui & Co. and Nippon Steel Corp. will spend $733 million on developing new iron ore mines in the Pilbara region of Western Australia to sustain output from the West Angelas hub.

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-venture-spend-733-million-222807940.htm

Snippet:

.."Rio is contending with falling ore grades and dwindling reserves across several of its current operations, driving the company to invest heavily in the region to sustain production.

The company needs to build a major new mine EVERY YEAR for the rest of this decade to maintain output.

The problem is not company-specific, with other miners in the region also battling with the problem..."

GLA

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Cutifani

Anglo American (2013-2023)

In January 2013 it was announced that Cutifani would become the new chief executive of Anglo American plc, starting his new role on 3 April 2013, replacing Cynthia Carroll.

Cutifani stepped down as chief executive and a member of the Anglo American board in 2022.

So he overlapped with Tarmo.

All grist to t'mill.

His replacement/interim CEO, Tarmo Haehnsen, is ex Anglo:

https://www.manaraminerals.com/Tarmo-Haehnsen.html

Tarmo Haehnsen

Acting CEO & Chief Investment Officer

Tarmo has 20 years’ experience in the global metals and mining industry, leading M&A transactions, investment evaluations and capital planning projects. He led corporate development globally for China Molybdenum Company and was Head of Corporate Finance Base Metals at Anglo American. He started his career at UBS investment bank in the UK and Canada.

His experience at Anglo

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tarmo-haehnsen/details/experience/

included

Head of Corporate Finance Base Metals

Jun 2014 - Oct 2017 ·

... Lead and oversight role for Anglo American Group’s capital planning and investment evaluation processes, focusing on the Base Metals, Iron Ore and Group Exploration business units....

How topical.

GLA and ATB

His replacement/interim CEO, Tarmo Haehnsen, is ex Anglo:

https://www.manaraminerals.com/Tarmo-Haehnsen.html

Tarmo Haehnsen

Acting CEO & Chief Investment Officer

Tarmo has 20 years’ experience in the global metals and mining industry, leading M&A transactions, investment evaluations and capital planning projects. He led corporate development globally for China Molybdenum Company and was Head of Corporate Finance Base Metals at Anglo American. He started his career at UBS investment bank in the UK and Canada.

His experience at Anglo

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tarmo-haehnsen/details/experience/

included

Head of Corporate Finance Base Metals

Jun 2014 - Oct 2017 ·

... Lead and oversight role for Anglo American Group’s capital planning and investment evaluation processes, focusing on the Base Metals, Iron Ore and Group Exploration business units....

Topical.

GLA and ATB

Https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2025/saudi-mining-fund-ceo-pierre-chenard-steps-down?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website

"The CEO of Manara Minerals, the Public Investment Fund’s global mining investment unit, has STEPPED DOWN after less than 18 months in the role.

..Pierre Chenard, whom Manara confirmed had RETIRED recently, was a veteran mining industry dealmaker hired as Manara’s first full-time CEO in May 2024 to lead the kingdom’s PLANS TO BECOME A MINERALS HUB BY INVESTING IN GLOBAL RESOURCES THAT COULD BE EXPORTED TO SAUDI ARABIA FOR PROCESSING AND RE-EXPORT...

..Manara was launched in 2023 and has completed ONE MAJOR DEAL [ Ed.: the stated ambition was one per year, to include nickel, copper/gold, iron ore and lithium]: a $2.5 billion investment to acquire a 10% stake in a copper and nickel-focused spinoff of Brazilian mining giant Vale.

Ed.: Manara's planned stake in Reko Diq, the P*kistani copper/gold project led by Barrick seems to have faltered.

"Chief Investment Officer Tarmo Haehnsen has been named acting CEO, Manara said in a statement..."

Doesn't sound like there was much succession planning. No comment from Chenard himself, it rather looks as though his retirement may have been news to him too...;-<

Another curiosity, the accompanying 'stock' photo is identified:

'A section of the Serra Norte iron mine, operated by Brazilian miner Vale. Amanda Perobelli/Reuters.'

Ho hum

Https://www.semafor.com/article/10/06/2025/saudi-mining-fund-ceo-pierre-chenard-steps-down?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website

"The CEO of Manara Minerals, the Public Investment Fund’s global mining investment unit, has STEPPED DOWN after less than 18 months in the role.

..Pierre Chenard, whom Manara confirmed had RETIRED recently, was a veteran mining industry dealmaker hired as Manara’s first full-time CEO in May 2024 to lead the kingdom’s PLANS TO BECOME A MINERALS HUB BY INVESTING IN GLOBAL RESOURCES THAT COULD BE EXPORTED TO SAUDI ARABIA FOR PROCESSING AND RE-EXPORT...

..Manara was launched in 2023 and has completed ONE MAJOR DEAL [ Ed.: the stated ambition was one per year, to include nickel, copper/gold, iron ore and lithium]: a $2.5 billion investment to acquire a 10% stake in a copper and nickel-focused spinoff of Brazilian mining giant Vale.

Ed.: Manara's planned stake in Reko Diq, the P*kistani copper/gold project led by Barrick seems to have faltered.

"Chief Investment Officer Tarmo Haehnsen has been named acting CEO, Manara said in a statement..."

Doesn't sound like there was much succession planning. No comment from Chenard himself, it rather looks as though his retirement may have been news to him too...;-<

Another curiosity, the accompanying 'stock' photo is identified:

'A section of the Serra Norte iron mine, operated by Brazilian miner Vale. Amanda Perobelli/Reuters.'

Ho hum

Https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/03/bhp-iron-ore-china-reported-ban-has-wide-ranging-ramifications-heres-what-to-know

Seems a fair assessment.

.."While the ban could prove short-lived, given Chinese steel mills can’t easily replace BHP ore, CMRG’s intervention might more constructively be seen as an opening salvo.

China is developing the so-called “Pilbara killer” in the African nation of Guinea where the Simandou project is on track to become the world’s largest and highest-grade new iron ore mine.

[ Ed.: 'Look behind you ! ;->]

Production at Simandou is majority controlled by Chinese companies, although the British-Australian miner Rio Tinto is also a significant player.

Simandou boasts high iron-content ore, referred to as high grades, and has been developed at a surprisingly fast pace this year, given its history of legal disputes and past development problems in the mountainous region.

CMRG’s negotiating hand should strengthen in the coming years...."

GLA

Hi glenmorangie,

Thanks for this.

I was aware of these numbers when I wrote para (1), the bit that interested me was the basis for the subsequent claim

.."And then in the next para:

.." The Board is satisfied that the Company and Group will have sufficient funds to meet their own working capital needs up to, and beyond, twelve months from the date of approval of these accounts. "

I don't know when these (interim) accounts will be approved, but a year from today sees us to OCT 2026....."

My working assumption is that there's either still room under the Shard facility or they'd hope to get away another one (in extremis)...and as much as anything a 'note to self' that we don't know what availability (if any) there is under the Shard facility or whether - as some have speculated - it's been the source of some of the round number, late reported transactions we've seen reported recently.

HTH and ATB

Hi,

(1) We're agreed on the denominator/total shares in issue : 832,379,966. Neither that nor the various shareholdings (the nominator(s)) are an issue.

The issue is the arithmetic: in both approaches I took, when you divide the relevant numerator by the (common) denominator, you get over 50%, not the %age that ZIOC quotes on its website/interim report.

(2) The 1.5 million shares are MK's , as I stated, not Sir MIck's, whose holding is unknown (and as others have commented, may never be known, if he's split amongst his family to below 3% disclosable levels, for tax planning purposes.

(3) Greymount's reduced take in Tranche 2 was to acccommodate Gupta, who wanted an extra $ 300K, see the 26 Mar RNS : '"Following a request from Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of Arise, who also invested in the Fundraise, to increase his investment in ZIOC, Greymont Bay has provided Gagan Gupta the right to commit a further US$0.30 million of the Additional T2 Subscription, reducing Greymont Bay's Additional T2 Subscription to US$1.20 million."

HTH and ATB

Guava's and Greymount's undertakings not to buy, sell pledge etc (fully restricted lock-in) is, surely, a commitment they've given to the Company - and hence the market - not just to the strategic who requested it (where the AI alternative mechanism of NDA's could apply)?

When AI says : "Other interested parties know they have until roughly February 2026 to make a move before EXCLUSIVITY lapses...", I think it has misunderstood the situation: the lock-in is a general standstill, benefitting any interested party .

I wonder under what circumstances ZIOC - as beneficiary of the undertaking - would be prepared to bring forward the 26th February 'release' date : suppose A.N.OTHER (eg Fortescue, who seems to have written off its Belinga chances, see recent post), were to 'jump the gun' and bid high/blind/a variant (as it did with Simandou)?

Interesting times, for sure.

GLA

Apols!

I see it's covered in your second (3) @ 09:10.

Cheers.

Makes perfect sense, MM !

AI has articulated the benefits accruing to the potential strategic from tying down a sizeable shareholding and - de facto - securing first mover advantage.

By the same token, the scope for a competitive bidding situation has lessened - if it hasn't, pls explain why not?

If it HAS lessened, pls invite AI to speculate what the 'quid pro quo' given to the now-locked-in might be.

Thank you

Hi G_G_G,

I didn't answer your Q re ZIOC's cash position. They've told us

(1) The Company and Group had cash reserves of US$3.9 million as at 30 June 2025 and a cash reserve of US$2.9 million as

at 25 September 2025.

Following the completion of the 2025 Fundraise, the Company is in a significantly stronger financial position. Based on the

current cost base at the Zanaga Project, the board of directors of ZIOC believes that the Company and its Group will be

sufficiently positioned to support its operations IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND INTO Q2 2026.

And then in the next para:

.." The Board is satisfied that the Company and Group will have sufficient funds to meet their own working capital needs up to, and beyond, twelve months from the date of approval of these accounts. "

I don't know when these (interim) accounts will be approved, but a year from today sees us to OCT 2026....."

So, which is it?

'Yer pays yer money, yer takes yer choice'!

ATB

Worth noting that the arrangement with GIS has been downgraded/downplayed/diluted, somewhat tersely per the Interim hardcopy :

.."As part of the transaction, MARKETING RIGHTS over 20% of the iron ore products from the Zanaga Project WILL be

ALLOCATED to Gulf Iron and Steel (GIS)...."

ATB

Hi hxulcolrdoh,

Thanks for this.

I think it's wrong, but don't know whether that's an accident or deliberate.

I've looked at it two different ways and in each case come up with 'over 50%', see below :

(1) The 3 Mar placement RNS told us that 416,860, 475 would be issued. The nearest declaration of total shares issued is the 23 May RNS that told us about MK's exercise of his 1.5m options, after which shares in issue were 832,379,966.

Subtract 1.5m and you get to 830,879,966 shares o/s before that date.

416,860,475 / 830, 879, 966 = 50.171%

If you assume that MK's holding is 'non-public' and add it to the numerator, that = 50.261%

(2) Looked at another way:

- your source (the June report p 32) says that Greymount, Gupta and Regatta total 293, 604, 652 (152,131,783 + 83,333,334 + 58,139,535) and that this = 35.273%.

- since 416,860, 475 were issued, the balance 123,255,823 were issued to other subscribers (Mick Davis, MK , AT + the Saudi?).

It seems safe to argue that - while these shares may not be 'significant = disclosable' - they are also 'not in public hands'.

They = 14.807%

- Sum of the 2 = 50.078%

Either way, by my calcs they're over the psychological/potentially relevant 50% and not as stated.

E & OE, if I've misunderstood something, pls correct me.

There's another apparent error - over Elphick/Guava's holding - that I raised with the Company a while back, which they've not addressed, much less refuted.

Ho hum.

GLA

I missed this headline:

The Australian

https://www.theaustralian.com.au › business › mining...

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) exec Gus Pichot visits Gabon to confirm …

Sep 3, 2025 · Fortescue does not expect to complete a feasibility study on building the mine UNTIL DECEMBER 2026."

The rest of the article is behind a paywall.

A look at https://www.fortescue.com/en/what-we-do/our-growth-projects

shows nothing for Africa.

I can't see the Gabonese being happy with that timeline/apparent lack of prioritisation.

Absent any evidence to the contrary, Twiggy must surely be looking for a replacement source for the high-grade ore needed to blend with his Pilbara rust.

AFAICS

GLA

.."Well, I have heard directly that the company are investigating both hot and **COLD** pellets at Pointe Noire...."

It's a pity that your source didn't also clarify the GIS offtake 'allocation' arrangement before you raised such a hue and cry and went all negative on the Co, making various unfounded allegations.

;-