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Hi Peakhope,

Thanks for engaging, but I think you're wrong re Falcon Group USA being helpful to the SYME case :

From its website https://www.falcongrp.com/about-2/

I see that it specializes in assets-as-a-service ( AaaS) and inventory finance.

AaaS is basically leasing capital equipment to industrial companies (so they can convert lumpy capex into multi year opex). At a personal level, think car lease finance...

Inventory finance - for trading companies- is done using Falcon Group's own balance sheet.

From the website, Why Falcon?

.."Our solutions can unlock capital without sacrificing supply chain resilience. Our proven track record in balance sheet optimisation means we can take genuine risk on GOODS HELD ON OUR OWN BALANCE SHEET.

Building on thirty years of excellence, Falcon has become the inventory partner of choice for leading banks and logistics companies globally. Falcon has transacted over $10bn in the past five years, is audited by Deloitte and RATED BY Moody’s (Ba1).

We have particular expertise in the automotive, healthcare and engineering sectors as well as a long-standing focus on manufacturing, metals and agriculture."

In their logistics description, (pre-shipment/in-transit) they offer something very similar to what TradeFlow does.....

SYME's DD may be very good (for SYME) at weeding out credit duds, but is of little/no comfort to a potential funder, since it has no track record showing that it's good at credit assessment ...and no balance sheet to give a funder any sense of meaningful recourse.

It's a classic chicken-and-egg situation, unfortunately.

AFAICS

This in the context of the exporters, by 2050 being

-M East 35 - 40Mt

- Brazil 5-10

-Australia 20-25

Total 60 to 75 Mt

M East 2 x Australia exports, 4 x Brazil exports....

Importers being

- EU 25-30 Mt

-China 23-28

-JpKorT 12-17

Total 60 to 75 Mt.

Wow!

Hi alwayshoping,

I got interested - as I usually do by your finds - until I discovered that beton a fer/fer a beton is just a fancy term for re-bar.

If a factory in Congo can't make money out of that, then you really have to wonder...

ATB

Absolutely!

The case in a nutshell:

.."Australia’s iron ore will require smelter technology(1) to achieve DR grade, while Brazil has high-grade ore(2) but faces operational challenges at mine sites. The Middle East meanwhile imports ore feedstock from both (3) and will see Vale set up metallics mega hubs going forward. The region already has the DRI technological edge...."

M East has technological edge that Oz lacks; doesn't have Brazil's operational challenges; and currently imports ore from both...once it secures its own supply of high-quality ore, it's unencumbered and master of its fate.

And -also from the article - it'll be cost-competitive in both EU and Chinese markets.

It's almost as though Woodmac's written the blurb for ZIOC's next market communication.....

ATB

syme's core problem persists, despite however many iterations/re-inventions it goes through : its 'true sale' usp (allows/enables off-balance sheet funding) is only attractive to poorer credits.

syme has tried cash margins as credit enhancement (in)famously the purpose of the pledged share loans; sace guarantees; 'pegno non possesorio etc. every time, income-hungry funders appear to have decided that the extra 'reward' still isn't worth the risk.

and if you're selling on price, you don't have a very strong moat, if any moat at all.

few serious funders will lend primarily against security, which is a bit like a 'last resort' atomic bomb : (a) good to have in the ****nal ;(b) you don't want to have to use it (messy); (c) what if it doesn't 'go off' ie work as intended (even messier); and (d) what about the collateral damage ? (let's not go there).

as current headlines are showing, in another, more serious context.

afaics

Seb's latest :

YPF re-enters the fray, cross-cross-appealing on a conditional basis the action taken by Plaintiffs/BUR to appeal Preska's original decision to dismiss claims against YPF when awarding judgment against Argentina....

Seb's laconic observation

🛑Interesting cross-cross appeal on a conditional basis just filed by YPF. I was unaware that this was a legal channel available in the U.S. justice system.

If nothing else, this intervention will surely strengthen BUR's case for a substantial bond being required.

AFAICS

Ashmore (ASHM) take on the first round election result :

Argentina: At the General Elections on Sunday, with 97% off the vote counted, Sergio Massa held 36.6% of the vote ahead of Javier Milei with 30.0%; and Patricia Bullrich trailing with 23.8%.

The result sets the stage for a second round between Argentina’s far right and far left parties on November 19th.

The voter turnout was low at 74%, compared with 81% in 2019 elections and 79% in 2015.

Milei needs to dissociate himself from currency depreciation and come to the centre. Milei will also need a higher voter turnout outside of the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA), which historically has hurt the Peronist Party.

The Peronist Axel Kicillof [of 'we'd be stupid to pay compensation' fame] was re-elected Governor of the Province of Buenos Aires with c. 45% of votes. Massa received 43% of the votes in the PBA.

Bullrich said Juntos por Cambio (JxC) would never support communists.

Whoever wins will struggle to govern, because the Peronists, albeit losing the majority, still have the largest minorities in both houses.

The Senate (72 seats) split has 34 Peronists; 24 JxC; 8 Milei’s party; 6 others.

The Lower House (257 seats) has 107 Peronists; 94 JxC; 39 Milei’s; 17 others.

On economic data news, Argentina’s trade deficit was unchanged at USD 1.0bn in September, against expectations of a USD 200m surplus.

GLA

Hi Divvyup,

Funny you should suggest a 'doppelgaenger'.

Here's the 'real' Zamboni

hxxps://alessandrozamboni.com/

Also from Milan, also entrepreneurial, heavily into online marketing, with some interesting 'side-gigs'

hxxps://jvupsell.com/alessandro-zamboni-summer-deals-2022/

The only 'hit ' I got from googling AZ/Credit Suisse, btw, was a reference to the hire of Buxton and Cavanagh after the Credit Suisse Greensill-related implosion, where they both worked.

You live and learn!

ATB

.."- the Chinese reportedly have 6 warships in the Gulf region. Will they stand-by and watch their new friend Iran attacked?.."

If I were in Taiwan, I'd be concerned about possibilities nearer home.

Bill Clinton's reported question at a similar moment - 'Where are the carriers?'

GLA

Hi Divvyup

.."AZ having previously served as the head of innovation at Credit Suisse,.."

Doen's it stike you as odd that AZ doesn't mention his Credit Suisse background on his linked-in profile ?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/alessandro-zamboni-2124412/details/experience/

Or on his SupplyMe profile ?

https://www.supplymecapital.com/who-we-are/leadership/

Or in the RegTech prospectus ?

https://regtechopenproject.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Air-RTOP-Prospectus-1.pdf

Surely, in each case, this background would have added greatly to his credibility?

And certainly it's something anyone would want to check out, no?

Good luck.

Hi beardozer,

You've name-checked me , but I'm not sure what you're asking.

Are you familiar with the Lassonde curve theory and, if so, where do you think we are on it?

'How much is 'enough' ?' For some folk, no amount will ever be enough, others have more modest needs or aspirations.

You may well be in a different place from every other ZIOC investor, both in terms of where you are in your life journey and what you want to do in whatever time remains - and 'how much' you 'need' to accomplish that.... so only you know what's right for you....and what's important to you.

I didn't know about the Lassonde curve; or much about Africa; or anything about Jean-Yves Ollivier; or the role of Congo-Brazzaville for the Free French in WW2; or the Cuban revolutionary adventures in Angola; or the shambles that is/was Belgian Congo (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_River:_A_Journey_to_Africa%27s_Broken_Heart); or whatever.....you get the picture !

I don't know where we'll end up, though I'm more optimistic now than I have been at various points in the past. And , by definition, we're nearer the 'end game now' - whenever it is - than we were yesterday, never mind 3, 5, 7 or however many years ago it was that you first got involved.

I hope you have kept a number of 'irons in the fire', so that you can take some money off the table from time to time.

Good luck (to us all) and hope to see many of you when we have a reason to celebrate !

ATB

AGL (Africa Global Logistics, former Bollore, now part of MSC Group) is on a bit of a roll atm :

- per depeches, it's just delivered to C-B and DRC fibre optic cable as part of the “2Africa” project, which aims to build the world’s largest fibre optic submarine cable, linking Africa to Europe and the Middle East."

https://www.logupdateafrica.com/shipping/agl-moves-2africa-fibre-optic-cables-in-drc-congo-

In Congo-Brazzaville, 45 tonnes of cables sent by ship from France were delivered to the Congo’s territorial waters. For this project, AGL mobilised equipment dedicated to delivering cables on the high seas. The company also handled customs clearance and administrative formalities for this exceptional operation.

Implemented by an association of technology companies led by META (formerly Facebook), the “2Africa” project aims to guarantee reliable, high-speed Internet connectivity for three billion people across Africa, Asia and Europe. It is expected to connect 16 African countries, including the DRC and Congo-Brazzaville. This project, which is part of the digital transformation of the African continent, is one of the challenges to which AGL is contributing as part of its growth strategy in support of Africa’s transformation.

- and it's also secured the concession for the Lobito terminal (terminus of the eponymous Corridor)

https://www.porttechnology.org/news/agl-awarded-port-of-lobito-terminal-bid/

.."The Angolan authorities have announced that Africa Global Logistics (AGL) secured the bid for the container and conventional terminals at the Port of Lobito.

This follows a call for tenders issued in January 2023

Supported by MSC, AGL’s industrial project aims to enhance connectivity at the port platform, stimulating regional trade and supporting industrialisation initiatives.

The Port of Lobito, the second-largest port in Angola, is positioned strategically for the global energy transition and serves as the primary Atlantic gateway to the Copperbelt region, enabling the transport of crucial minerals, such as copper and cobalt, to international markets.

AGL is confident that the Port of Lobito’s integration with the pre-existing 1,300-kilometre Benguela railway network and the forthcoming railway link to Zambia will lead to substantial reductions in transit times to Europe and the Americas."

Having secured the PN concession only in June 2023, AD Ports will be wanting to generate some news of its own before long...

ATB

Another good find!

These people signed one of the 6 contracts agreed during the forum, part of Jindal Group.

https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1144319/business/economy/pacts-signed-for-6-major-projects-at-duqm-sez

A total of three agreements linked to the Vulcan Green Steel project at DuqmSEZ were signed as well. An affiliate of India's JIndal Shadeed Group, Vulcan Green Steel plans to set up a plant with a capacity of 5 million tpa of green steel at a cost of $ 3 billion.

Jindal Group are already sniffing (so far without reported success) around iron ore mines in Guinea...and elsewhere.

ATB

Another good find!

These people signed one of the 6 contracts agreed during the forum, part of Jindal Group.

https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1144319/business/economy/pacts-signed-for-6-major-projects-at-duqm-sez

A total of three agreements linked to the Vulcan Green Steel project at DuqmSEZ were signed as well. An affiliate of India's JIndal Shadeed Group, Vulcan Green Steel plans to set up a plant with a capacity of 5 million tpa of green steel at a cost of $ 3 billion.

Jindal Group are already sniffing (so far without reported success) around iron ore mines in Guinea...and elsewhere.

ATB

The 'Chronic Investor' is often - not always! - something of a contrarian indicator* so actually quite encouraging.

* A bit like The Economist front-cover, in my experience.

GLA

In other news, I see that Hollywood scriptwriters are no longer on strike...

Latest from Seb

"Judge Preska agrees to hear Argentina's case on the possibility of waving the guarantee bond issue. Will review a series of documents and make a decision after November 7."

Argentina to present arguments by 26 October (max 20 pages)

Plaintiffs to reply by 2 November (max 20 pages);

Argentina reply by 7 November (max 10 pages).

Election 1st round 22 October

Run-off 2nd round 19 November.

Interesting timing...

ATB

And hydro too, I know, I know...;-

And while you're at it

.."This is confirmed in writing that the shares had to be returned..."

Pls provide evidence supporting this claim.

Or withdraw it.

Map of Lobito corridor, so you can see what I mean.

https://constructafrica.com/news/lobito-corridor-rail-line-planned-angola-drc