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Hi Eddsy,

Thanks for this.

The summary version I read said "President Denis Sassou-Nguesso has decided AT THE ELEVENTH HOUR to attend a Beijing summit marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative. [...]

Leaving aside the delicate matter of how he's getting there, what prompted his sudden change of mind?

We can but hope..

Incidentally, trawling through the Africa Intelligence back-catalogue, there's lots of interesting stuff:

- several articles on the CommisImpex litigation, not just the Presidential Falcon but also arson at a seized former Congo embassy building in Paris; changes of lawyer team; CommisImpex attempting to block AFD funds; CommisImpex failing to seize a TrumpTower property...

- More legal woes for the Nguesso clan

'Ill-gotten gains': Sassou clan braces for fresh charges

The Congolese so-called 'ill-gotten gains' case : BigDen's granddaughter, Yacine Queenie Bongo, has been summoned by the French courts, with his son, Denis Christel Sassou-Nguesso, in late August.

Politics 26.07.2023

-Gunvor's Congo secrets to be revealed in new Swiss corruption trial

A former Gunvor executive to go on trial .. for the alleged bribery of Congolese officials in the early 2010s. The energy trading firm was itself found criminally liable in 2019 ..

..payments worth more than $15 million to secure Congolese oil deals..to President Denis Sassou Nguesso, his wife Antoinette Sassou Nguesso and his son Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso, in charge of oil sales for SNPC....

Commodity traders 06.10.2023

- a possible explanation for Little Den's recent burst of activity

Congo ministers 'Kiki' and Bouya spar in contest to attract foreign investment

The international cooperation minister Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso .. given the official go-ahead for an inter-ministerial committee to manage foreign investments. His rival, the minister of territorial development Jean-Jacques Bouya, has been kept on the sidelines.

- Movement on a $5BN LNG project

ENI's $5bn 'Marine XII' LNG project in Congo electrifies politicians and subcontractors alike

..substantial investments in an LNG export project off the coast of Pointe-Noire, Italy's ENI has raised hopes of breathing new life into a moribund industry. The Congolese authorities have placed high stakes on the project.

- Big Den took early steps to 'coup-proof' himself

Sassou raises retirement age for his generals

Via two decrees signed in late 2022, Congo's president Denis Sassou Nguesso has extended the tenure of generals who have reached the official retirement age in order to avoid upsetting the delicate balance of his security apparatus.

Politics 27.01.2023

Sassou-Nguesso reshuffles key security posts

...appointed Colonel Basile Boka to take charge of the presidential guard, whose previous boss, General Gervais Akouangué, now runs the gendarmerie.

Defence Politics 09.01.2023

And, most recently/topically...

Continued....

No need to assume, the info is in the 29/9 RNS 'Result of AGM'

It's quite common for companies to want to have authorities in place to raise funds if needed.

It's usually a 2 - parter, a resolution to allow the company to issue a certain %age of shares (often 10%); and then a waiver of pre-emption rights, so that they don't have to offer those to existing shareholders (which requires more info and more admin).

A recent innovation is the use of companies like Primary Bid, as a sop to PI's , allowing them to take part in a limited way in such a fund-raising.

Whether HELD needs to raise money is another matter. Have they provided any business plan/timetable ? Whatever it is/was, there seems to be a consensus that they're behind advertised schedule operationally.

OTOH, they've received grants that may not have been budgeted for.

These would have been good issues to raise at the AGM or for DR's fireside linked-in chats.

NAI, IMO, DYOR

Hi Driving

No. I'm a big fan of Mark Twain, who knew a thing or two about people.

'It's not the things you don't know that get you into trouble - it's the things you know for a fact that just ain't so.'

I post new stuff as I come across it - as much for my own record as anything else. If there's informed pushback, so much the better.

If it's content-free, it gives me a steer about the poster and the likely value of any future comment they make.

Either way, it's a learning opportunity - all grist to the mill.

ATB

Buses, eh ... And now a challenge for AD Ports. It looks as though it is going to need a pretty 'muscular' approach to business to manage its Concession successfully.

From today's 'depeches de brazzaville'

Paul Obambi (cf SaproMayoko, widely considered a 'front' for Big Den), wearing his hat as head of the business community, rails against 'a local mafia that for the last 2 years has been by-passing the container scanner at PN, to avoid import duties'.

He's head of the scanner co, Global Access Congo, so might be said to be talking his own book : it's a moot point as to where any import duties would end up [cf DP World and Banana Port /DRC issues].

The scanner project contract, was signed on March 31st, 2021 between the Republic of Congo and the company IDA Holding represented by Global Access.

https://www.idaholding.org/about-us tells us that IDA .." has duly integrated the need to adopt integrated and interactive intervention strategies to effectively support the structural ambitions of African economies..."

Behind it stands Ocorian, a privately-owned Jersey-based provider of trust, administration and fiduciary services for companies, institutions, individuals and funds .

The company operates in Luxembourg, Ireland, the Netherlands, Malta, the Isle of Man, Guernsey, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Mauritius, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates.

Despite the mostly 'exotic' locations, Ocarion (1,500 employees) seems to be a (much) smaller version of Swiss-based SGS -98,000 staff - which provides inspection, verification, testing and certification services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGS_S.A.

Ho hum

And another 2 x 250K clips ('unknown') go through today....

This is the story, the denouement of (part of) the CommisImpex claim.

https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/04/seized-sassou-nguesso-plane-sold-at-auction-for-71-million-euros/

Speaking of aircraft, I see that PP-FCC has been in the States since 30 September, currently Tucson, AZ.

''Onwards and upwards'.

BrazzaNews is obv anti Govt : recent clips show downtown flooding in PN/Brazzaville (lack of drainage system) and a story about the disputed ownership of the recently-auctioned Presidential plane , a Dassault Falcon 7-X, reg TN-ELS.

Ho hum

PostScript re CMEC:

While poking around on twitter, apart from the usual Little Den puffery as he drums up business, I chanced across @BrazzaNews, with this gripe (which may, of course, be totally without foundation):

.."🇨🇬 IMBOULOU Dam, the scam of the century?

Brazzaville is in the dark because this Dam is useless, a real financial pit that could be directed towards the creation of SOUNDA. Do you know that the IMBOULOU dam is not operating at full capacity? The experts had warned of major works before the creation of this toy which cost more than 180 billion XAF (Chinese loan), because the Imboulou site on the Léfini was unsuitable for this type of infrastructure.

Worse, the Chinese company (China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC)) responsible for building the Imbouilou dam on the Léfini had never built a dam in its life. Imboulou was therefore his first attempt.

The Congo is in trouble, future generations will repay a loan for an infrastructure that does not work because of the irresponsibility of the Ministry of Major Works (Jean Jacques BOUYA)"

If there's any substance to the claim, let's hope CMEC's standards have improved since 2004.

Strong stuff indeed!

Congratulations to BUR's wordsmiths for expanding my vocabulary of American English!

I'd never seen in print before the image they conjured up when describing Argentina's assertion of what faced it as 'the parade of horribles'.

Wikipedia tells me that the phrase 'originally referred to a literal parade of people wearing comic and grotesque costumes, rather like the Philadelphia Mummers Parade. It was a traditional feature of Fourth of July parades in parts of the United States in the 19th century, and "Horribles Parades" continue to be part of the Independence Day celebration in several New England communities'.

Here, by extension, 'a rhetorical device whereby the writer argues against taking a certain course of action by listing a number of extremely undesirable events which will ostensibly result from the action.'

The Motley Fool mission is "to educate, amuse, and enrich.”

BUR is already delivering on the first 2 counts, I look forward to the hat-trick !

ATB

Newlands is a serial investor

https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/David-Newlands-0C86TH-E/biography/

David Newlands

Public asset : 33,575,251 USD

Linked companies :

No connection available

Holdings of David Newlands

Name Equities % Valuation

Serica Energy plc (SQZ)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 3,096,500 0.81% 9,793,641 USD

Filtronic plc (FTC)

(Communications & Networking) 26,010,000 12.1% 5,438,171 USD

Iofina plc (IOF)

(Specialty Chemicals) 14,335,000 7.47% 5,131,500 USD

Trinity Exploration & Production plc (TRIN)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 3,907,500 10.2% 4,233,425 USD

AIREA plc (AIEA)

(Home Furnishings) 4,239,000 10.3% 1,691,997 USD

Afentra plc (SEY)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 4,972,500 2.26% 1,557,586 USD

Plant Health Care plc (PHC)

(Agricultural Chemicals) 9,440,000 2.76% 1,118,451 USD

Kromek Group plc (KMK)

(Industrial Machinery & Equipment) 15,640,000 2.64% 1,020,666 USD

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc (BOR)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 34,250,000 4.69% 954,890 USD

Totally plc (TLY)

(Healthcare Facilities & Services) 6,275,000 3.19% 844,803 USD

Byotrol plc (BYOT)

(Personal Products) 28,320,000 6.24% 645,979 USD

CAP-XX Limited (CPX)

(Electronic Equipment & Parts) 24,830,000 3.47% 479,716 USD

Wentworth Resources plc (WRL)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 713,000 0.40% 248,459 USD

Evgen Pharma plc (EVG)

(Biotechnology & Medical Research) 8,314,815 3.02% 242,294 USD

SDX Energy plc (SDX)

(Oil & Gas Exploration and Production) 3,470,000 1.70% 173,674 USD

List shows his (earlier) 5m AET holding.

ATB

Hi rifteastafrica,

Stocko says that they were previously at 5m and 2.26%, based on an Aug 25 2022 RNS

HTH - assuming this is correct.

ATB

Continued...

.."The shift in the strategic balance that Netanyahu wants is political and regional, not military and local, and much of it coincides with what MbS wants. Reducing Turkey’s support for Hamas reduces the influence of the Saud dynasty’s enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood. Displacing Hamas from Qatar helps to pull Qatar out of the Iranian orbit.....

....Hamas is not just an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood or Iranian imperialism. It has its own nationalist and territorial goals too, and it keeps its Sunni options open through its links to Turkey and Qatar. When Anwar Sadat launched the Yom Kippur war in 1973, he wanted to break Israel’s image of invincibility, recover lost territory and, above all, force the Americans to the negotiating table. Perhaps the Hamas leadership in Doha launched their attack on Israel on the 50th anniversary of Sadat’s surprise attack with a similar aim.

...This time, however, it will not be the Americans alone who redraw the map. Only MbS and MbZ can provide the legitimacy that Israel craves...."

This article may seem somewhat O/T, but I think shows how the times they are a-changing, hopefully in ways that will work in ZIOC's favour.

ATB

Long article in today's Spectator 'The Middle East's new grandmasters' that uses chess analogy to describe the roles played by these two .

."The Middle East has long been a chessboard of mutual loathing. As American influence ebbs, the region’s historic patterns are reemerging. The non-Arab powers on its northern and eastern margins, the Turks and Persians, have resumed their imperial efforts to control the fractious Arabs. The Sunni-Shia schism is now expressed in the struggle between two visions of regional integration, one imposed by Iran, the other led by the Gulf Arab states IN CONCERT WITH ISRAEL.

... the leaders whose opinion will matter most in Jerusalem won’t be outsiders like the presidents of American or Russia. They will be ,,, the double act known as MbS and MbZ. With the prospect of a nuclear Iran dominating the region, these two Sunni autocrats are aligning themselves with Israel.....

..In carrying out their attack last weekend, Hamas has used the terrorists’ veto to delay ‘normalisation’. Yet Hamas’ use of Iranian funds and weaponry, and its coordination with Iran’s regional strategy, demonstrate precisely why the Iranian threat has pushed MbS towards an alliance with Israel. ....

.."There are also internal factors at work. The Gulf states have survived the Islamist waves that destroyed Iraq and Syria and incapacitated Egypt. Their monarchies float on a lake of oil money, but the wells will eventually run dry. ....As the balance of the global economy moves rapidly eastwards across Asia, India and China are investing heavily in the Gulf....

...MbS and MbZ are trying to future-proof their states for the post-American order and the post-carbon economy. This is about survival and material interest: fending off Iran, making money not war, and using the last decades of the oil age to reboot carbon economies to tech, renewables and leisure....

...See for example IMEC, the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor. ..., IMEC is an alternative to China’s Belt & Road Initiative.....a train link from India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel [HAIFA] and Greece. The MoU is between the governments of India, United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and European Union....

..Demographic, economic and political realities have lowered the price of Arab recognition of Israel and raised the value of collaborating with their once sworn enemy. The Palestinians’ dysfunction makes it easier to pass them the bill....

..A complicating factor is Qatar which, by hosting the biggest American military base in the region, the Hamas leadership and the al Jazeera propaganda channel, functions as the Casablanca of the Middle East.....

Continued...

Sebastian Maril

2h

Argentina appeals 8 years of rulings in YPF case:

1. Judgment Sep. 2023 (established USD 16,100 M)

2. Judgment May. 2023 (reconsideration)

3. Judgment Mar. 2023 (blamed Arg. x exprop. YPF)

4. Judgment Jun. 2020 (Inappropriate Forum)

5. Initial ruling of Sep. 2016.

And doesn't wait for Judge Preska's decision on whether a bond is needed to appeal or not.....

Can't see Her Honour being impressed by this demarche.

ATB

Hi Driving,

You likely understand these things better than me: what do you make of those 2 x 250K clips , said to be 'unknown' ?

Will we get a better idea from the end-of-day price action?

TIA

HELD used the words 'on track' in the 31st July RNS, saying that it will produce 'for sale' during Q2 (which ends 30 September) ie within 60 days of the RNS statement.

Today 11th October (72 days from 31 July), we're told that it has BEGUN cultivation.

Allowing 6-8 weeks for the cycle, the earliest HELD will see a 'sale' is end Nov to mid Dec.

Be conservative and say 11 Dec.

That's 345-212 = 123 days, vs. an explicit ' within 60 days'.

In my book, that's quite a 'miss'. And quite a misrepresentation.

ATB

Bogart's strategy picked up by Seb

El CEO de Burford acaba de tirarle un centro al próx. Gob.:

"Nuestra estrategia es encontrar la manera de iniciar un diálogo constructivo antes de buscar activos para embargar. Elliott finalmente logró cobrar dialogando con el [nuevo] gob.".

Translation:

.."Burford's CEO has just sent a message to the next Gov:

"Our strategy is to find a way to start a constructive dialogue before looking for assets to seize. Elliott finally managed to get paid by talking to the [new] government."

GLA

Correlation isn't causation...unless it is!

;-

Peso weakens as Milei touts dollarisation

(ex reddit)

Argentina’s official exchange rate has been fixed at 365 pesos to the dollar since August. But on Monday its black market exchange houses — where Argentines go to convert their savings into dollars — were charging 945 pesos a greenback, a 7.4 per cent increase from Friday.

365 > 945 in 2 months....hard to imagine.

.."In a radio interview on Monday, Milei advised Argentines against keeping their savings in investment instruments denominated in pesos.

“Never in pesos, never in pesos,” he said. “The peso is a currency emitted by Argentine politicians, so it can’t be worth excrement, because those pieces of trash don’t even work as fertilisers.”

'Desperate times call for desperate measures'.

Quite !

A $ !00m bridge loan to help out your partners (on a $ 16 Bn project..).

This money is.." expected to support ONGOING STUDIES for the infrastructure until a FINAL FEASIBILITY STUDY is conducted and FUNDING AGREEMENT SECURED.

Belinga may be fast track, Simandou's definitely in the crawler lane, let's see if ZIOC can pull out into the overtaking lane.

ATB