Member Info for extrader

The article is adding Vale to the 3 targets already identified for 'price rationalisation' by the new Chinese ore buyers 'coordinator' ie BHP, FMG and Rio.

As you say, time will tell.

If ZIOC DOES end up in the hands of the Gulfies, I hope they'll include offtake terms that say the Chinese can only get the surplus production AFTER all the Gulfies' consumption needs have been met....just to keep them incentivised to build out the full 30mtpa.

Keep those finds coming!

ATB

Seb Maril's latest - v succinct:

A smirky grin GIF of President Xi with the comment

'Don't even think about it'.

A case of'join the dots', maybe ?

ATB

Thanks for this.

I'm a bit puzzled by the references to

(A).." the construction project of a state-of-the-art multipurpose terminal within the autonomous port of Pointe-Noire.."

and

(B) "the creation of a free trade zone .."

(A) fits in with AD Ports' concession terms, alright, but also seems to be what ZIOC says it is working on.

From the 29 Sept RNS

.."Discussions are in progress with a large port infrastructure development firm, including consideration of:

(1) Opportunity for expansion of the existing port of Pointe-Noire; and

(2) Potential development solutions for a large bulk mineral port capable of supporting the Zanaga 30Mtpa staged development project.

Is 'the large port infrastructure development firm' working for ZIOC or is ZIOC 'asking for a friend', ie AD Ports? After all, you'd expect the Concession holder to have some say in what it was looking to manage for the next 30 years !

The large bulk mineral port is mining-specific and (we think?) envisaged as being at Pointe Indienne, AIUI.

Is Pointe Indienne part of 'greater Pointe Noire' - does AD Ports' Concession include it? Little Den mentioned 'portS' in one communication, suggesting that he at least hoped AD Ports' role would expand...

And is the proposed 'Free trade zone' the same as a Special Economic Zone, which PN already is/has ? Note that the earlier COIDIC venture foundered, apparently, on the sovereignty issue. Is this a 'work-around'?

The PN SEZ has already been extended into two parts (by designating an area nearer Cabinda also as PN SEZ) to accommodate a Chinese refinery.

I'm also curious about the mechanics : how does the infrastructure firm go about preparing for its discussions with ZIOC ? Can these be done meaningfully at an abstract, conceptual level or does the company have to go on-site and do surveys etc ? If so, who do they ask ? AD Ports ? PN SEZ authority ?

Or just whoever has the database from previous surveys and discussions?

And, finally : ZIOC has been careful to avoid saying anything that gives a clue as to the identity of the 'large port infrastructure development firm'.

However - hat tip to MM - AD Ports hasn't been reticent about disclosing its new partnership with China's CMEC

https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/07/20/ad-ports-group-and-china-machinery-engineering-group-corporation-sign-memorandum-of-understanding

who seem to have the necessary skillset.....AND were original promotors of the now-Fortescue-run Belinga iron ore complex in neighbouring Gabon.

Oh, and CMEC ALSO has expertise in the HYDROPOWER field, most recently in Cameroon and Senegal-Mali, but also in C-B itself, as far back as 2004.

http://en.cmec.com/xwzx/ztlm/201902/t20190222_204383.html

.."In 2004, it was the first time to sign a large-scale EPC hydropower project in the Republic of Congo—the Imboulou 4x30MW Hydropower Station in the Republic of Congo..."

Are we looking at a 'Chinese take-away' ?

More que

Hi Driving,

I read it that way too, the first time!

But the thing is, we DON'T have MoU's in place, we only have ZIOC aspirations, so far. That's what the s/p (in)action tells me, anyway....

Per the RNS

Corporate strategy approved by the ZOIC Board of Directors, focused on leveraging recent DISCUSSIONS with potential partners in order to PROGRESS the Zanaga Project through positive defined milestones

· Key MILESTONE OBJECTIVES through to the end of Q1 2024 include:

o Feasibility Study update - End 2023

o Hydro power partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

o Port partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

o Strategic partner initiative - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)

I'm sure that they'll try and get inside those 2 discrete quarter end-dates, timing of the first 'deliverable' being a lot more certain (because more advanced) than the others.

The length of time it takes to rework the feasibility study to contractor specs[both Phases, up to 30mtpa, including costing the slurry /pellet feed processor elements] must (surely?) be pretty known - how long the Chinese EPC Partner takes to share that with ZIOC (or others) may be another matter, of course...

The good thing is (if AbuDhabi is in the frame), we've seen they (and C-B) can move fast from Heads of Terms to Concession Contract pdq if they want to.....

As I see it.

ATB

On Nexus, Simon said at the Open Day that the margin planned is 30-50% retail vs wholesale, blended 40%.

Fortescue has Belinga next door in Gabon...and is pretty far down the track already, it would seem :

In late June 2023 - admittedly, pre-coup, it reported

https://www.reuters.com/article/fortescue-ironore-gabon-idUSKBN2YD03X

.." Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group said on Tuesday that the Belinga iron ore project, located in the northeast of Gabon, is on track for first shipment by the end of this year.

“Early stages of exploration indicate multi-billion tonne potential and high grades,” the company said.

In February, Fortescue had entered into a deal with the Gabonese government to mine iron ore from its project in Belinga, as the world’s fourth-largest iron ore miner searches for high-grade iron ore to blend with its Australian product..."

But maybe 'Twiggy' Forrest would like to hedge his Africa bets with a twin-track approach ? Especially if he doesn't have to earmark funds for his DRC/Inga project....

"With an assessed net worth of A$ 33.29 billion according to the Financial Review 2023 Rich List, Forrest was ranked as the second richest Australian."

Choices, choices... 'money can't buy everything...but it must be fun trying'.

Seb again: There's a 'period for reflection' pre polling that stops news coverage/electioneering.

"[Let's have] fewer comments about Insaurralde and more questions from the moderators about the trials that have cost us fortunes:

- YPF

- Holdouts

- GDP Coupon

- Argentinian airlines

- ICSID

Last opportunity to know the opinions of the candidates."

Reply : the moderators don't set the questions....

Thanks for this.

AIUI, CMRG is China's attempt at offsetting Australia's divide and rule marketing approach, by having centralised purchasing.

It's headed up by BaoSteel management and BaoSteel has apparently said it will use CMRG to source at least half of its needs, it can't do all straightaway, as some is under long-term contract, see

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-new-state-run-agency-start-iron-ore-purchases-bloomberg-news-2022-12-16/

"Beijing created CMRG in July with a registered capital of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion). Guo Bin, executive vice president of Baosteel owner China Baowu Steel Group Co, is general manager of the firm, according to Tianyancha, a Chinese online database of company information."

As to Vale, my understanding was that their interest in the Gulf (apart from their OWN activities in Oman), was to sell expertise/technology (processing, railway, slurry pipeline, management, whatever) to Saudi, the UAE etc and make money on that side of things ie 'collaborate rather than compete'.

Having missed out on Simandou, though, they may want to be part of something else in Africa (remember the claim that Vale was an instrument (or driver, depending on your pov) of Brazil's foreign policy ?).

If you look at the number of companies involved in Simandou, there may be an element of 'safety in numbers' that comes into play here too- and we'll end up with a big consortium with no individual participant having too much exposure to Zanaga ?

We've got 3 Basins this month and COP 28 next month, with an AGM in-between....and Little Den chivvying AD Ports along, as Eddsy has showed.....maybe things will be clearer soon.

ATB

Thanks for this.

AIUI, CMRG is China's attempt at offsetting Australia's divide and rule marketing approach, by having centralised purchasing.

It's headed up by BaoSteel management and BaoSteel has apparently said it will use CMRG to source at least half of its needs, see

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-new-state-run-agency-start-iron-ore-purchases-bloomberg-news-2022-12-16/

"Beijing created CMRG in July with a registered capital of 20 billion yuan ($3 billion). Guo Bin, executive vice president of Baosteel owner China Baowu Steel Group Co, is general manager of the firm, according to Tianyancha, a Chinese online database of company information."

As to Vale, my understanding was that their interest in the Gulf (apart from their OWN activities in Oman), was to sell expertise/technology (processing, railway, slurry pipeline, management, whatever) to Saudi, the UAE etc and make money on that side of things ie 'collaborate rather than compete'.

Having missed out on Simandou, though, they may want to be part of something else in Africa (remember the claim that Vale was an instrument (or driver, depending on your pov) of Brazil's foreign policy ?).

If you look at the number of companies involved in Simandou, there may be an element of 'safety in numbers' that comes into play here too- and we'll end up with a big consortium with no individual participant having too much exposure to Zanaga ?

We've got 3 Basins this month and COP 28 next month, with an AGM in-between....and Little Den chivvying AD Ports along, as Eddsy has showed.....maybe things will be clearer soon.

ATB

Per this

hTTps://www.zyri.net/2023/10/07/expropriation-of-ypf-the-request-that-argentina-made-before-judge-loretta-preska-to-avoid-depositing-us16000-million/

it looks as though the requested enforcement date starts 16 October...

PS Didn't somebody suggest that BUR's tactic/reply might be a 'goodwill' compromise,in which it recognised all of the above... and suggest that a bond for $4-5 Bn would be a compromise way forward...

AFAICS, BUR asked for a 30 day 'grace period' before it could start enforcement, back on 22 September.

First round of the elections is on Sunday 22 October.....

Timing might be awkward for Preska.

(1) Klein earned his chops negotiating between 2 egos, Ivan Glasenberg (GLEN) and Mick Davis (Xstrata);

It seems as though he's also well in with the Saudis :

.."Klein has strong links with the PIF too. In 2017, for example, he reportedly advised the fund on its global investment strategy and advisory plans. In 2019, he played a key role in the IPO of Aramco, in which 2% of the company was floated and the proceeds moved to the PIF. The PIF has also worked with Klein in relation to some of the SPACs he's been running in recent years. .."

https://www.efinancialcareers.co.uk/news/2022/12/michael-klein-credit-suisse

(2) Blair has been longtime advisor to Mubadala of the UAE.....and has credibility with /trust of African dictators ('a prophet in his own country' ?)....as does Jean-Yves Ollivier (Rusatom hydropower connection) specifically with Big Den.

(3) MBS and MBZ relationship looks to be a rerun of Ivan/Mick...;-<

Maybe the answer is to get Klein, Blair and Ollivier together and let them get on with it, leaving them to sort things out, respecting GLEN's redline issue (the marketing arrangements) and Elphick's (the money).....

We can but dream....

PS Note the reference to Klein's SPACs expertise....

Cheers, Eddsy.

The UAE news is the important bit ;->

The Mauritius swerve is a 'Brucie bonus' : 2 x ducks with one shot ?

ATB

Thanks, Renegade.

Arg: "Paying would impose irreversible harm on the pop already suffering from high inflation and eco consequences of a severe drought."

Argentina: "The Republic currently does not have the ability to issue public debt on the international capital markets.”

Argentina: "Under Argentine law, the only payments the government can make in the current year are those included in the budget approved by Congress".

Argentina: "[The] bond represents 20% of the Republic’s annual budget".

Argentina asks J. Preska for a pre-motion conference to waive the bond requirement to appeal w/o risking embargoes...

Seb is too kind to point to the Argentine comment that the appeal bond market is finite and would have difficulty accommodating 'even to judgment debtors with excellent credit'.

Argentina also mentions the 30 BUR attachment experts - bailiffs, to you and me - it would have to go after for recovery, in the event of a successful appeal.

Back to Preska....

PS 'Some might say that this is another duck being lined up......'

"You might very well think that. I could not possibly comment."

ex 'House of Cards'

Hat tip to Frank Urq

Hi Eddsy,

Can you check the link, pls ?

On a quick read , it's about Little D's meeting with Mauritius Govt, chastises Mauritius for not pulling its weight..and then invites it to take part in Big Den's 3 Basins initiative :

.."The Congolese minister stressed that the implementation of these agreements had not been satisfactory and stressed the need to give a new direction to this cooperation.

In addition, Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso informed the Mauritian Prime Minister that his country is invited to actively take part in the Three Basins Summit that the Republic of #Congo will organize from October 26 to 28, 2023, at #Brazzaville . This aims to develop a common strategy to stimulate investment projects intended to combat climate change and preserve biodiversity on a planetary scale..."

Not without interest, though - Mauritius is a big offshore banking centre : it's where Terry Smith of Fundsmith fame has his (personal) base :

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/terry-smith-pockets-30m-as-fundsmith-sends-156m-to-mauritius/a1494383

as do some other, less savoury characters :

https://www.icij.org/investigations/mauritius-leaks/treasure-island-leak-reveals-how-mauritius-siphons-

.."Treasure Island: Leak Reveals How Mauritius Siphons Tax From Poor Nations to Benefit Elites

Based on 200,000 files, Mauritius Leaks exposes a sophisticated system that diverts tax revenue from poor nations back to the coffers of Western corporations and African oligarchs..."

'International co-operation' can take many forms...

HTH and ATB

Thanks, StarBright,

This was the GLEN/Xstrata story

https://www.reuters.com/article/glencore-xstrata-banks-idINL5E8GVDS320120531

And it seems Klein's still in thick with GLEN

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/klein-emerges-from-credit-suisse-saga-with-glencore-teck-role

Dealmaker Klein Emerges From Credit Suisse Saga With Glencore-Teck Role

Veteran dealmaker has been advising Glencore on its Teck bid

Klein previously worked with Glencore as go-between on Xstrata

'Maybe, baby?'

A good weekend to one and all.

StarBright commented a few days ago

.."Typically this requires a true deal-maker, motivated and capable of getting both parties to accept reality. I’m not sure who that deal-maker is here..."

and I volunteered Jean-Yves Ollivier, who has a RusAtom connection and something of a track record in bringing disparate parties to the table.

Looking at Guinea /Simandou for read-across and spotting the existing UAE interest /expertise in Guinea Alumina Corp, a little further digging threw up this guy as a possible intermediary...

https://www.thisissierraleone.com/tony-blair-expands-his-african-empire-into-mineral-rich-guinea/

Some light reading for the weekend....;->

Stranger things have happened.

ATB

Pehaps AZ can ask AZ whether the transfer's gone through?

Reminder : £515,750 By 5 p.m. (London time) on 4 October 2023

Then AZ can tell AZ that it'd be a good idea to tell the market ...oh! and maybe the shareholders (= 'owners', quaint concept) too..

..Continued

How will demand for green steel change the supply outlook?

The long-term transition towards green steel puts suppliers of high-grade, low-impurity ores in pole position.

This structural shift is already impacting capital investment decisions, with developers showing a clear preference for high-grade iron ore resources. Brazil looks well positioned, while Guinea’s giant Simandou project is set to become the most significant addition of high-grade iron ore supply in recent history, notable both for its planned production capacity (up to 180 Mtpa) and quality (high-grade 65% Fe fines iron ore with combined silica and alumina lower than 4%).

The transition towards green steel poses a challenge for producers of lower-grade ores, notably Australia. We forecast Australia’s iron ore exports, currently around 60% of the global total, peak in the next two years before entering gradual long-term decline. Australian miners are responding to the changing market by investing in technology to make their iron ore suitable for direct reduced iron (DRI) processes and decarbonising existing production.

What does this mean for prices?

In the changing outlook for iron ore, the quality differential will be the key to future pricing. We expect rising demand for high-quality lump and pellets and supply constraints will drive a growing premium for these products over the long term. Meanwhile, prices for low-grade ore delivered to China will fall by around a third by the early 2030s as Chinese demand softens.

Our forecasts for high-grade pellet prices to rise by over 20% through the same period are an indication of how the push for green steel is disrupting the market.

The mood music remains positive...even though the author hasn't replied to my challenging his view that ZIOC wouldn't go ahead...

ATB