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.."This does not mean that they haven't, but I would understand if they can't show any real progress in that front.."

If the asset recovery people are any good, we'll be the last to know about it...alongside Argentina.

Think of BUR as the Spanish Inquisition...

HTH

Merry Xmas.

Thoughts invited :

If, worth per (a) is

- $1.3Bn when RTZ was a distressed, 'motivated ' seller in a bad market in 2016;

- $ 4 Bn to an 'interested ' buyer FMG in a different market , in late 2019...

and resources per (b) SEEM mostly to be in ZIOC's favour, the $ 4Bn seems reasonable.....and that's before taking account (MM's observation : 'What I'd do first) of the ZIOC presentation comment

.."World class deposit

One of the largest discovered iron ore resources in Africa with a 6.8Bt resource, including the largest known iron ore reserve on the continent : Around 50% of the orebody’s magnetic footprint has been drilled to date, which implies there is further exploration potential along strike...."

ATB

Update - thanks for input.

.."to compare like-with-like, we'd need to know (a) how much Rio spent on its share of the Simandou concession ie strip out estimated infrastructure cost ; and (b) what it got in estimated resources / ore quality in exchange."

Trying to answer (b) first , the ZIOC presentation (vj123 ) shows Rio +Chinalco Simandou (3 and 4) as total RESOURCES 2,640 mt [vs ZIOC 6,890 mt ] and total RESERVES as 1,844 mt [vs ZIOC 2,070 mt].

Curiously, the ZIOC presentation OMITS Simandou (1+2), SMB+Winning, the one Vet 10 refers to....any idea why that might be - just not disclosed, if they're all private co's?

Second, Rio's filings https://www.listcorp.com/asx/rio/rio-tinto/news/mineral-resource-and-ore-reserve-estimates-for-simandou-2967846.html disclose this detail :

(a) Mineral Resource statement :

ZIOC RTZ Fe * Simandou (3+4)

Measured (mt) : 2,330 147 67.1% 327

Indicated (mt) : 2,460 440 66.2% 977

Inferred (mt) : 2,100 773 65.8% 1,717

Total: 6,890 1,360 3,022

(b) Ore reserve estimate :

ZIOC RTZ Simandou (3+4)

Probable Ore 1,296 1,226 65% 2,724

Proved Ore 774 273 66.4% 606

Total : 2,070 1,499 65.3% 3,331

* I THINK (it's not clear) that the above numbers are Rio's entitlement of 45% of the total for the (3+4) Consortium, if so those numbers would gross up as in column (3).

I don't understand the terminology, but on most metrics ZIOC APPEARS to score better than THIS part of the Simandou project.....

Turning to (a) what is 'outline planning permission for undeveloped land - which is what ZIOC has to offer NOW - 'worth' ? And what info do we know about RTZ's view?

1. We're told we've spent some $ 350M in getting ZIOC to where it is now. By the same metric, RTZ has supposedly invested $2Bn (which it wrote down to $ 10M, per https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/07/18/why-rio-tinto-reversed-course-on-the-massive-siman.aspx) and in 2016 was willing to sell its stake (to Chinalco) for $1.3 Bn on deferred payment terms (out of eventual production). OK, a distressed seller, but still...

2. Most of the Simandou 'spend' is on infrastructure, Winning's bid was $ 14 Bn, FMG offered $9bn for the blocks but did not formally promise to build the railway ’.

see https://www.miningmx.com/news/ferrous-metals/39241-consortium-edges-out-fortesque-metals-with-14bn-bid-for-guineas-simandou/

If, simplistically, the 2 x Simandou's are the same size, $ 9Bn x 45% = $ 4 Bn might be what RTZ's 'undeveloped' concession could be 'worth' to a buyer.

T

The key bit, from 'Management Proposal'

.."In view of the strategic review being carried out by the Company's indirect controlling shareholder, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited (“OWHL”), which has the potential to result in an operation involving the transfer of its direct or indirect equity interest in the Company (“Potential Operation”), as disclosed in the Material Facts released to the market on 12 June 2023 and 14 November 2023, the management has structured, with the assistance of specialised advisors, as a way of preserving and maximising the Company's value in a Potential Operation, as well as compensating and retaining the

Company professionals, a retention and non-competition plan for the management...."

GLA

I suspect that Ocean Infinity/Clake's attention is elswehere atm

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/colombia-will-try-to-raise-objects-from-a-1708-shipwreck-believed-to-have-a-cargo-worth-billions

and that SRT is a relative 'divertissement'.

Season's greetings.

But this may be Bradesco just drumming up business/interest.

Story continues

"..It is worth noting that, according to a June report in the newspaper O Globo, MSC was negotiating the purchase of 57% of Wilson Sons in a transaction of approximately R$5 billion or R$8.8 billion for 100%, which caused the shares to soar at the time.

However, as reported by the company on November 14, Ocean Wilson confirmed that during the competitive process, the controlling shareholder received several non-binding offers.

In the house's view, the offers could raise the acquisition price to the upper range of R$19.90 to R$25.60 per PORT3 asset or a multiple of 9 times to 11 times the EV/Ebitda multiple (EV = market value + debt; Ebitda = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for 2024. "This could lead to a 23% to 58% rise in the shares compared to Wednesday's closing price," says the bank.

In addition, this unexpected proposal to approve a non-compete and retention plan could also be part of the closing conditions of the deal, suggesting that a binding offer and, consequently, the announcement of the deal seem imminent.

BBI continues with an outperform recommendation for Wilson Sons' shares with a target price of R$ 18.00 for the end of 2024..."

GLA

Https://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/wilson-sons-port3-plano-de-retencao-indica-acordo-iminente-de-compra-e-pode-ser-catalisador-para-acoes/

BBI Review

Wilson Sons (PORT3): Retention plan indicates "imminent" purchase deal and could be catalyst for shares

In Bradesco BBI's view, MSC seems to be the favorite candidate to acquire Wilson Sons

InfoMoney Team

2023-12-21 10:13 AM • Updated 21 hours ago

Yesterday (20), after the market closed, Wilson Sons called an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) for January 23, 2024 to propose a non-compete and key executive retention plan.

The move is due to the possibility of an M&A transaction confirmed by its controlling shareholder, Ocean Wilson Holdings Limited (OWHL), on June 12 and November 14.

In Bradesco BBI's view, the news indicates that a deal seems imminent and MSC appears to be the favorite candidate to acquire Wilson Sons. PORT3 shares recorded gains of 0.68%, at R$ 16.33, at 10:06 am (Brasília time) in the session this Thursday (21)...."

FWIW, DYOR etc etc

Hi Vet10,

"We have a 50m market cap but Simandou went for 15billion USD?"

The only number I've seen recently is the $ 6.2 Bn that Rio will be spending on its 45% share of Blocks 3 and 4, BUT that includes its share of the infrastructure. So 100% of that concession + development spend would indeed cost' around $14 Bn.

ZIOC 'only' has the concession and associated permits and the architecture plans , but no infrastructure spend (which should in any case be lower because of shorter distance and less challenging terrain).

I think that to compare like-with-like, we'd need to know (a) how much Rio spent on its share of the Simandou project concession ie strip out estimated infrastructure cost ; and (b) what it got in estimated resources / ore quality in exchange.

I don't think I've seen those numbers but will poke around a bit - unless someone else has the info to hand ?

ATB

Ugh!

Here's a good write-up on Ocean Infinity/ Clake

https://blog.geogarage.com/2023/11/hedge-fund-tycoon-anthony-clake-doubles.html

'Underwater' MDA ....coming to a business near you ?

GLA

Thanks for the link.

I see Trahar senior of BSL fame is an advisor.

And I wonder whether 'the Digger' held on to any ZIOC shares from his Xstrata days, if only for sentimental reasons?

Check out this guy, at 1:00 in the PSEI video

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ron-derammelaere-551b8313/details/experience/

.."His career began at Bechtel more than 40 years ago, where he was assigned as a field engineer in South Africa. Later, he transferred to San Francisco where he joined a highly specialized team known as the “Slurry Group,” where long-distance pipeline technology was first developed. He participated in the design, construction and commissioning of several major slurry pipeline projects that helped to build the framework that defined his career. He was seconded to Energy Transportation Systems Inc as VP of Operations for a 2000 mile coal slurry pipeline.

In 1995, he joined Ausenco (then known as Pipeline Systems Incorporated (PSI)) as project manager for several significant slurry pipeline projects, including Samarco in Brazil. He was subsequently promoted to senior vice president of operations, and in December 2001, he was appointed as president and chief executive officer. He successfully served in that role until negotiating the sale of PSI to Ausenco in 2008. Derammelaere continued serving as President of what became known as Ausenco PSI until he accepted his present position as Senior Advisor/Chief Technology Officer [ based in Novato, CA] in early 2011. "

The 3rd contract at 1:04 in the PSEI video is the 2007 Da Hong Shan project, client KISCO, which was acquired by BaoWu in 2021.

So, on the plus side , PSEI has the Ausenco /Brazil pipeline expertise and experience. ...and BaoWu will know of PSEI through its subsidiary KISCO ...but that appears to be the extent of BaoWu 'connection'.

ATB

Expropriation.

HTH

It's pretty much a given that, if you employ consultants, their first recommendation is usually that you take them on full time...or for something bigger...

TBF, the calibre of Chinese co's has probably improved significantly with an extra decade of experience under their belt ( and - cough!- road).

GLA

Intra-day RNS, all resolutions duly passed..

Let’s see what tomorrow brings, now the permissions are in place.

GLA

Hi Jiving,

From Jul 11

..’ A google search had previously thrown up this co, KISCO, working with Ausenco, the slurry pipeline specialist behind the Minas Gerais pipeline in Brazil that resembles ZIOC's requirement.

https://ausenco.com/projects/da-hong-shan-scada-system-for-high-pressure-slurry-pipeline/

It turns out that the client, Kunming Iron and Steel Group Co KISCO was acquired by Bao Wu Steel group a couple of years ago.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2183760-chinas-baowu-acquires-kunming-steel-eyes-shandong.…”

Not sure if the 2 x Kunmings are connected, other than shared place- name….

Away from desk atm, may look into it tomorrow…

ATB

There's a ref to slurry pipelineback in the 2014 FS, IIRC.

Maybe Perth has been n 'in contention' all along...

And there we were, thinking Perth was a city in W Australia...

.."Could be for Vale...(see MM's post earlier today)..."

Could also be Vale ' asking for a friend', of course.

Hopefully, some of the present 'cloud of unknowing' will be dissipated tomorrow.

GLA

Could be for Vale...(see MM's post earlier today).

Hmmm...

ATB

Hi atg,

I believe that the EPC partner is this company, Perth International Technology & Trade (Beijing) Co., Ltd,

website http://www.psei.com.cn/, based on

(a) a reverse image search of upper left photo on p7 of the Nov presentation;

(b) this description (under Company News) :

.."Perth overseas part of the project dynamics

Release time:2023-10-16 11:22:56 Views:195

Perth overseas part of the project dynamics

1.Iron Ore Project （Congo）

The project is located in the Democratic Republic of Congo and develops 30 million tonnes of high-grade iron ore concentrate per annum in two phases. The project includes mining, concentrators, slurry pipelines, ports and infrastructure. At present, Perth is in the process of updating the feasibility study, which is a feasibility study for bank-grade loans of international standards..." and

(c) under 'Scope of services', this description :

.."General contracting of the project

Release time:2023-10-31 15:33:45 Popularity:817

Kunming Perth has the qualification of construction engineering design, procurement, and construction general contracting (EPC), and can provide customers with the whole process of design, procurement, construction, commissioning and commissioning services. In terms of long-distance slurry transportation pipelines, we have an excellent design, construction and commissioning team, and rich team experience will create higher economic benefits for customers; According to customer needs and the actual situation of slurry pipeline engineering, Kunming Perth will provide the following targeted services:

1. Design, procurement, construction general contracting services (EPC);

2. Design, procurement, construction management, commissioning and commissioning services (EPCM);

3. Design, construction management consulting, commissioning and test services;

4. Design and procurement services (EP);

5. Design and technical services..."

(d) See also under 'scope of services' : Pipeline transportation ; and - first item under News- this :

(e) Perth has been awarded a current contract for a 12 million mt/year iron ore roll drying option in Brazil

Release time:2023-12-13 16:59:33 Popularity:30

.... Recently, it has been favored by Brazilian iron ore miners and won a pre-contract for the design of 12 million tons/year iron ore roller grinding and dry separation process in Brazil.

In 2023, Perth Beneficiation New Technology has signed research and design contracts for 3 large-scale iron ore concentrators in South America and Africa. With its high efficiency and process optimization, the new process of Perth beneficiation saves a lot of investment for the owner and reduces the production cost..."

Ignore the ref to DRC in (b....and note the dates under (b) to (e) - and the (perhaps) coincidence of a Phase 1 sized 12mtpa beneficiation plant pre-contract just announced in 'Brazil'.

'Geographical inexactitude ' or deliberate misinformation? Could be for V

As you were...

GLA