Member Info for extrader

Seb's tweet re a Panorama-type expose of YPF.

'YPF case: the great scam in Argentine history? Tonight's guest on Odisea Argentina: Bernardo Saravia Frías. Monday 10 p.m. By LN+.'

LN+ is part of La Nacion, per wiki .."La Nación (transl. "The Nation") is an Argentine daily newspaper. As the country's leading conservative newspaper, La Nación's main competitor is the more liberal Clarín. It is regarded as a newspaper of record for Argentina."

Frias ('BSF') -- under Macri's administration - was "head of the National Treasury Attorney's Office,which provides legal advice to the National Executive Branch and dependent agencies, represents and defends the State in lawsuits, directs the Corps of State Attorneys, conducts investigations and administrative enquiries, and registers and audits lawsuits in which the National State is a party."

This is a link to the 29 minute programme

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPxiFtqFK7s

Given this/his background, BSF spends a fair bit of time talking about the practical and legal obstacles that the incoming Govt will face in getting its programme through.

The YPF bit starts at min 13:00.

BSF basically (my understanding) says that Argentina's initial defense team (Miami-based, for litigating an NY case, itself a 'curious choice'), didn't exploit certain legal defenses (eg discovery), because to do so would have exposed the dubious background to the original 'privatisation' by the 'Santa Clara' group - the province, its then governor (later President Kirchner), the Santa Clara Bank and its co-owners, the Eskenazi family(Petersen Group).

He refers at the outset to the unaccounted-for $ 650M that Santa Clara province received on YPF privatisation (compensation for loss of its provincial YPF-related royalties), deposited at Sta Clara Bank and then 'disappeared' (sorry) to Switzerland and related opaque dealings.

At some point, he alludes to Rockefeller and a comment to the effect that 'the only thing more profitable than a well-run oilco is a poorly-run one'.

BSF concludes that Argentina is now in a pickle : Preska's conditional agreement to stay (lodging of YPF shares as surety for an expedited appeal) leaves - his view - Burford in a very strong negotiating position : why should it accept a drawn-out and risky deferred payment plan if/when it controls YPF shares ?.

My questions for Seb would be :

- is BSF likely to be part of the Milei team ? Macri seems to have given Milei his backing during the campaign and is now supplying members of his government.

- why now? is this expose intended to muzzle Peronist/Kirchnerist opposition with the threat of exposure? BSF is likely to know where the bodies are buried...

Interesting times.

E&OE, NAI, etc etc

ATB

Fair point re SM, shaun86. If even SM can find a backer...

From what I've seen it's a trade finance facility, and not for the serious spend needed for capex (mine and transportation).

The ref by AfreximBank to Gabon in the same press release makes me wonder whether it's intra country risk cover for whatever SM exports. The last publicised export was the shipment down to PN on the rickety Congo Atlantic railroad, which took a month, with several derailments en-route. Maybe this time SM hopes to go via Franceville ?

Without further detail, we're left -as so often- guessing.

Hopefully all will become clear in the next few weeks.

ATB

The problem with this thesis is that

(a) everyone accepts that the Holy Grail is high quality iron ore - MM himself has quoted 67% Fe (which, incidentally, ZIOC achieves);

(b) Sapro Mayoko (= Mayoko Lekoumou) struggles to get at most 65%, amidst an awful lot of lower quality stuff;

(c) Equatorial (= Mayoko Moussendji) sold out their stake in Lekoumou when they realised this, keeping Moussendji - which meets the higher specs, but was subsequently expropriated and is now being litigated.

.."Equatorial CEO Welborn also alluded to possible cooperation between the two projects saying they may be stronger together. His comments come amid further controversy that the real reason for Exxaro’s problems with Mayoko-Lekoumou may be geological.

A report by Macquarie Research on June 25 said that the write-down [Rand 5.3 Bn/? US$ 480Million] related to problems that were more “technically fundamental” than a failure to agree a rail or port tariff or the decline this year in the iron ore price.

“Essentially, in order to build a project of sufficient scale (i.e. 12mtpa) and life, more magnetite ore (of lower grade) than initially thought was required to be mined – with significant implications for both capex required (magnetite requires a lot more processing kit) and operating costs, thus making the project return unacceptable,” said Macquarie Research in its report..."

See https://www.miningmx.com/news/ferrous-metals/22351-equatorial-distances-itself-from-exxaro/

Separately, this report https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/mayoko-project/?cf-view

shows the variability of (Sapro) Mayoko's ore quality .

.."A similar survey conducted on the remaining 780km² in 2010 increased the exploration target to 1.6-2.6 billion tonnes of ore graded at 30%-65% Fe. Between 320Mt and 520Mt of target ore graded from 40% and 65% of Fe corresponds to potential and beneficial DSO.

A 30,000m oxide resource definition drilling programme was started in February 2011 at Mt Lekoumou and Mt Mipoundi to increase the volume of the existing haematite, DSO, beneficiable DSO and inferred resource.

Results of the first batch drill confirmed the DSO grade of 50%-60% Fe and beneficial DSO at 40%-45%...."

My reading is that

(1) AfreximBank has recently agreed to provide TRADE FINANCE to Sapro Mayoko for reasons that are unclear, but may be political (ref to Gabon in the press release);

(2) AfreximBank has separately written an article saying that there'll be large scale iron ore projects in Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville

(3) On the (ore quality) face of it , Sapro Mayoko doesn't qualify as one of them.

All credit to MM for 'joining the dots' , but on this occasion, I think the dots lead to a dead end. If he thinks my observation is incorrect, he should explain why.

End of.

If you listen to the commentary, World Bank's interest is exclusively in financing social projects, such as clean water, electricity and support for the agricultural sector - which would indeed be 'transformational' for C-B's benighted population.

This is under the aegis of the 'Fonds bleu' initiative, promoted by Big Den and Ollivier.

https://www.lefondsbleu.africa/fr/

After commending C-B for its efforts to sort out its finances generally, the WB VP for Africa indicates it'll be supporting the Fonds bleu programme 'as a reward for C-B's recent 3 basins gathering' with a contribution of USD 5 million (his words)....which the voiceover misstates as USD 5 billion.

'Unity is strength'.

ATB

Interesting tweet courtesy baynet elsewhere

https://twitter.com/HumasBakamlaRI/status/1731595341877924049/photo/4

Aviation Reconnaissance Sensors to Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) training starts today

Apart from attendees all practicing their 'haka' poses, the backdrop event 'sponsors' appear to be UNODC's Global Maritime Crime programme, HMG's (?)Joint Maritime Security Centre and a flag 'from the people of Japan'....

UNODC is the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

Hmmm...

Hi Vet 10,

https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/metalmorphosis-how-decarbonisation-is-transforming-the-iron-and-steel-industry

Useful overview and re-cap of the consensus (?) understanding on this board.

Of special interest, the section :' Not just any old iron, the rise of green DRI', we see the case 'for' Zanaga succinctly expressed

..Brazil....is well positioned to produce high-grade ore, though it faces operational challenges at mine sites.

The Middle East is well placed to expand as a pellet hub, as it imports more high-grade iron ore from Brazil and UPCOMING HIGH-GRADE ORE PROJECTS IN AFRICA. Brazil’s Vale is also setting up mega-hubs in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman to feed DRI furnaces.

Technology and tie-ups: the Middle East already accounts for 40% of global DRI production, giving the region the technological edge....."

When PIF turns its attention from buying 'trophy assets' like football teams, hotel chains and airports, maybe it'll go further down the food chain...

Here's hoping.

ATB

Hat tip to triskelion, Goldman Sachs asks the difficult question :

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/11/goldman-asks-is-curing-patients-a-sustainable-business-model.html

.."“The potential to deliver ‘one shot cures’ is one of the most attractive aspects of gene therapy, genetically-engineered cell therapy and gene editing. However, such treatments offer a very different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic therapies,” analyst Salveen Richter wrote in the note to clients Tuesday. “While this proposition carries tremendous value for patients and society, it could represent a challenge for genome medicine developers looking for sustained cash flow.”

Same could be said of the NHS, social services etc. Nobody's interested in a 'cure'.

Turns out that ethics isn't an area on the outskirts of London.

Well, that didn't take long to get to you, did it?

;->

.."However why share what I know with the majority of unresearched individuals and duplicitous accounts..."

Well, that's certainly one way of explaining your lack of 'value added' up to now.

GL

Amidst all the bluster, I notice that you didn't actually answer the question as to whether you were a shareholder.

Just as you never 'came out' re a share price target...much less what, if anything you would give to charity - any charity, for your good fortune.

GL.

Let me jog your memory...

"MinorMiner Premium Member

Posted in: ZIOC.GB.PL

Posts: 8,520

Price: 7.25

Strong Buy

RE: Pellets and briquettes etc fao MM1 Dec 2023 07:18

Morning alwayshoping - I'm not sure about the expert bit, though I do have too much time on my hands to obsessively google all things 'iron ore' and 'green steel'!

There persists something of a misnomer about what constitutes 'high grade' iron ore, and the article is no exception. The media and others tend to label anything above benchmark 62%Fe as 'high grade' or at least 'higher grade'. The true differentiator is whether the iron ore is suitable for Direct Reduction Iron, and that is 67%Fe +..."

For once, you seem incapable of joining the dots.

ATB

Hi MM,

Here's the yardstick that you used only a couple of days back :

.."There persists something of a misnomer about what constitutes 'high grade' iron ore, and the article is no exception. The media and others tend to label anything above benchmark 62%Fe as 'high grade' or at least 'higher grade'. The true differentiator is whether the iron ore is suitable for Direct Reduction Iron, and that is 67%Fe +..."

I totally agree with your assessment then that this is an an important yardstick, so don't see why you (or others such as Eddsy) seek to dismiss/belittle/ignore what appears to be solid evidence that neither Sapro Mayoko nor Lobe 'make the cut'.

It's precisely because I'm 'looking for insights that support imminent development' that when something is presented that DOESN'T appear supportive USING YOUR OWN YARDSTICK , I query it.

Oh...and using a popular, if somewhat misleading , yardstick : I've never been as highly invested in ZIOC as I am now.

Out of interest, can you say the same?

Have a good weekend.

Hi Eddsy,

I'm not sure what your problem is : the links I've put up are hardly vague : amongst other things, they specifically state that the ore quality at Lobe and Sapro Mayoko are low relative to 'target' green ore requirements. Feel free to refute, in many ways it would make life easier.

Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't happen to like the message. Play the ball, not the man.

And maybe read about the genesis of the 10th man rule.

ATB

Googling ' Mbalam litigation' came back with this

.."The Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project has been the subject of a number of legal disputes. Sundance Resources, an Australia-based company, filed a US$ 8.8 billion ICC claim against the Republic of the Congo in March 2021 for the alleged illegal expropriation of its interests in the project. Sundance claims that following the revocation of its licenses, these were then granted to a China-backed company which reportedly has no previous experience of mining in the country. Sundance Resources also filed an ICC claim against Cameroon in June 2021 in relation to the same allegations 1. In August 2022, the Government of Cameroon issued a mining permit for the Mbalam iron ore deposit to Cameroon Mining Company, a subsidiary of Singapore-based investment vehicle Coconut Logic Holdings. Sundance Resources has issued dispute notices and raised a claim for compensation with the International Chamber of Commerce ."

You'd be right to assume that a bank would/should do due diligence. You'd be wrong to assume that it in fact does...

As I know from bitter personal/professional experience.

'Trust is good, checking is better' as that cynic Lenin was apparently fond of saying/practising.

As to Lobe, from the link you provided, it also appears to have quality issues, barely reaching 60% Fe content, if I've read correctly..

.."Sinosteel Cam aims to mine 10 million tonnes of ore with 33% iron content annually.

It would enrich this to produce 4 million tonnes of ore with 60% iron content, which would then be shipped. High-grade iron ore is particularly valued in making steel because it results in lower carbon emissions than lower grade ore..."

This was 18 months ago, when you'd expect every man and his dog to be newly 'sensitised' and looking for 66%+.....

Again, AFAICS.

ATB

Well, they may have an axe to grind, but this is what Equatorial (Mayoko Moussondji) had to say about Exxaro ([Sapro] Mayoko Lekoumou) at the time

https://www.miningmx.com/news/ferrous-metals/22351-equatorial-distances-itself-from-exxaro/

Equatorial CEO Welborn also alluded to possible cooperation between the two projects saying they may be stronger together. His comments come amid further controversy that the real reason for Exxaro’s problems with Mayoko-Lekoumou may be geological.

A report by Macquarie Research on June 25 said that the write-down related to problems that were more “technically fundamental” than a failure to agree a rail or port tariff or the decline this year in the iron ore price.

“Essentially, in order to build a project of sufficient scale (i.e. 12mtpa) and life, more magnetite ore (of lower grade) than initially thought was required to be mined – with significant implications for both capex required (magnetite requires a lot more processing kit) and operating costs, thus making the project return unacceptable,” said Macquarie Research in its report."

If lower grade ore was a factor back in 2014, it's surely even more of a factor now, no?

Which makes Afreximbank's support all the more curious.

AIUI.

Interesting find, MM.

The ref to 'Cameroon and C-B' suggests that they're talking about Mbalam-Nabeba, the resources that straddle the border , much further 'up-country' than the 2 x Mayokos and Zanaga.

This is the project that WoodMac deemed 'more likely' to go ahead than ZIOC...which I've queried with them repeatedly, but to no avail.

This is the ex-Sundance project, expropriated a few years back and handed to the Chinese, Sangha Mining Development of Pointe Noire, owned by Bestway, an HK incorporated entity.

https://www.mining.com/web/congo-republic-signs-deal-on-revoked-iron-ore-licenses-with-sangha-mining/

Burford (BUR) the litigation finance company, is funding Sundance's $8.76 Billion claim.

https://litigationfinancejournal.com/sundance-resources-secures-litigation-funding-from-burford-capital/

The Cameroon promoter seems to have hit headwinds per Africa Intelligence :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2023/10/10/alexandre-mbiam-will-struggle-to-keep-his-promises-on-mbalam-nabeba-iron-ore-project,

Cameroon, Congo 10 Oct 2023

Alexandre Mbiam will struggle to keep his promises on Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project

The Cameroonian businessman, who has good links with the authorities in Yaounde and Brazzaville, is trying to give the impression that his legal battle with Sundance, which was deprived of the project in late 2021, will affect neither the Chinese financing he hopes to get for it or its production date.....

This was the 'pitch' on the C-B side :

.."Sangha Mining said on Saturday that it will invest $10 billion to develop the projects.

SANGHA IS A LITTLE-KNOWN COMPANY BACKED BY CHINESE INVESTMENT WHICH IS EMBARKING ON ITS FIRST MINING PROJECT

“We plan to start work in the fourth quarter 2021, with a plan to start exporting in 2023 and eventually have an annual production of over 100 million tonnes of iron ore,” Manuel Andre, the chief executive of Sangha, said at the signing ceremony on Saturday.

Sangha is a little-known company backed by Chinese investment which is embarking on its first mining project. Andre did not comment on how the investment would be financed...."

I suppose stranger things have happened, but still...

ATB

True - and I suppose it might suit Big Den NOT to advertise Sapro Mayoko....

In more detail :

There are 2 'Mayoko' mines

(1) Mayoko Moussendji, formerly of Equatorial Resources, now Midus, which is litigating agst C-B for expropriation and delivery of the concession to Chinese interests.

This is the mine that Big Den name-checked yesterday, incl ref to 917m tonnes reserves.

(2) Mayoko Lekoumou, ex Exxaro, aka Sapro Mayoko, currently owned by Paul Obambi, alleged front man for Big Den, recipient of the recent Afreximbank trade finance facility, note : trade finance, not capital expenditure, so probably country risk cover.

The location of the 2 Mayokos (close together) is shown in slides 3 and 6 of this presentation

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/EQX/01596937.pdf

as is the relative distance (to the rail) of Zanaga.

Another 'wrinkle' is that (1)'s ore quality , at 64%, is higher than (2)'s...and both are lower than Zanaga's.

'Clear as mud'

HTH and ATB

There are 2 'Mayoko' mines

(1) Mayoko Moussendji, formerly of Equatorial Resources, now Midus, which is litigating agst C-B for expropriation and delivery of the concession to Chinese interests.

This is the mine that Big Den name-checked yesterday, incl ref to 917m tonnes reserves.

(2) Mayoko Lekoumou, ex Exxaro, aka Sapro Mayoko, currently owned by Paul Obambi, alleged front man for Big Den, recipient of the recent Afreximbank trade finance facility, note : trade finance, not capital expenditure, so probably country risk cover.

The location of the 2 Mayokos (close together) is shown in slides 3 and 6 of this presentation

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/EQX/01596937.pdf

as is the relative distance (to the rail) of Zanaga.

Another 'wrinkle' is that (1)'s ore quality , at 64%, is higher than (2)'s...and both are lower than Zanaga's.

'Clear as mud'

HTH and ATB