Member Info for extrader

Hi Livingstone20,

FWLIW, I'm inclined to your interpretation, as you explained in more detail elsewhere (which I rec'd)

.."I’m hoping I’m not just seeing what I want to see but my potential narrative on that is different. Perhaps the auction agreed a share price way back, they have ‘nickel and dimed’ a few extra centavos in final negotiations, or as it has dragged on, as an exiting shareholder they want their income share to the date they exit and they have settled on this strange amount. It just otherwise seems very odd to suddenly introduce a quarterly dividend, in the midst of a sale process with no mention of a new dividend policy. The only party who benefits from a quarterly dividend who couldn’t wait for the regular annual dividend is the majority exiting Wilson shareholder..."

The last line was quite persuasive for me.

We'll find out soon enough!

ATB

Some further related comment from MEED

https://www.meed.com/trkiyes-tosyali-plans-5bn-saudi-steel-plant

.."Government officials in Riyadh have pushed to transition to an economy less reliant on fossil fuels. For instance, in October 2023, Saudi Arabia launched the Neom Investment Fund. The fund serves as the strategic investment arm of Neom, which is a proposed 26,500sqkm new urban area planned by the kingdom to serve as a financial and global trade hub in the country.

Steelmaking plays a major role in that transition, supporting crucial industries such as Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and construction sectors. To put that into perspective, the planned city of Neom requires around 600km of large-diameter carbon steel pipe to facilitate water transmission.

“Steel is the driving force behind the advancement of the economic development of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” according to a statement on Saudi Arabia’s National Committee for Steel Industry. “Steel lies at the heart of progress, from medical instruments to solar power, from high-tech forging to our transportation network. It is the platform of our future.”

GLA

Unfortunately for ZIOC, it looks as though a lot of Bahrain Steel's feedstock requirement is already covered , by a 20 year supply deal with AngloAmerican, signed in 2019 :

From the same link https://www.bahrainsteel.com.bh/#!/media

Bahrain Steel Signs 20-Year Pellet Feed Agreement with Anglo American

- Supporting Enhanced Production Capacity and Sustained Growth

- Contract valued at approximately USD 15 billion over deal lifetime

Bahrain, 29th April 2019 – Bahrain

Steel BSC (The Company) today announced that it has signed a 20-year agreement with Anglo American Marketing Limited (Anglo American) for the supply of pellet feed for its pelletising plants located in Hidd in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The contract, which is valued at approximately USD 15 billion over its duration and will reach a total of 8 million wet metric tons a year, provides Bahrain Steel with approximately 60% of its expected needs for pellet feed at its annual rated capacity of 12 million tons of finished pellets, making the contract a significant milestone in its strategy to maintain full production capacity and the uninterrupted delivery of high quality iron ore pellets to steel producers it supplies around the world.

Signed in London, where Anglo American is headquartered, the agreement provides for iron ore grade to be supplied at a minimum 67% Fe and 2% or less total gangue. Deliveries under the contract have already started, sourced exclusively from Anglo American’s Minas-Rio mine in Brazil.

Bahrain Steel’s pellets are used for steelmaking using either the Direct Reduced/Electric Arc Furnace or the Blast Furnace/ Basic Oxygen Furnace route. The Company’s growth is being driven by its reputation as a reliable supplier of consistent quality Direct Reduction (DR) grade iron ore pellets and currently it has an estimated 26% share of the iron ore pellet market in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where demand is put at approximately 22 million tons ....."

Presumably, GCC demand will be a lot higher now...and going forward ;->

GLA

And, on further reading around (some pretty grubby stuff), there's this snippet :

.."Asperbras also owned private jets, 2 Bombardiers , a Challenger 605 and a Global Express 6000. They were used in the Portuguese corruption investigation 'Rota do Atlantico' , the 'Atlantic Route' being a reference to their round-trip flights between Brazil, Portugal (Cascais) and Congo'...

The mysterious jet PP-FCC that was the subject of some speculation as to possible VALE ownership a while back is also a Bombardier Global 6000 Type GLEX, its flight history includes flts inland from Sao Paolo to Penapolis, home town of Asperbras founders, the Colnaghi family.

So, mystery solved, I would venture.

Interesting, but probably irrelevant.....

GLA

PS On further reading, this 30Bn loan is part of a facility first approved in 2013, for II5 Bn CFA for construction of 12 general hospitals, one in each province of C-B. A workshop for the first was said to be 90% complete on a site visit in 2016.....

.."It's worth noting that the project to build construction of general hospitals in the twelve departments of the Congo was launched [in 2013]. This project is part of the national health policy 2018- 2030, entitled Programme

santé pour tous du Congo. The first sample of of these general hospitals was visited by the Head of State in Kinkala, capital of the Pool department, in February 2016. This site, whose level of execution work is nearing completion 90%, is built on a five-hectare site.

According to the technical specifications, it comprises a 12,000 m2 hospital building with a hospitalization capacity of 200 beds and a conference hall with 146 seats. ..."

Let's hope any ZIOC consortium is made of sterner stuff.

...and depeches 19 Jan carries a story re Central African Development Bank granting a 30 Bn CFA loan (($48 M approx), for construction of 2 x hospitals in Sibiti and Ouesso, by a company called Asperbras, which I looked up as possibly Brazilian...

Which it is, a diversified manufacturing co https://asperbras.com/en/

It turns out, however, that a few years back, Asperbras was implicated in a corruption/money-laundering case involving Big Den, Gilbert Ondongo (then Min of Finance) and a Euro 6.9m villa in Cascais, Portugal.

See https://expresso.pt/sociedade/2016-11-23-Caso-Jose-Veiga.-Multimilionario-brasileiro-veio-a-Portugal-de-proposito-para-ser-constituido-arguido

Seems that 'there is life after death'...

Ho hum.

Depeches carries a 16 Jan story about Petromal, part of National Holding Group, looking to invest in C-B hydrocarbons

https://www.nh.ae/our-businesses/petromal/

.."Based in Abu Dhabi and the oil and gas branch of the National Holding Group, Petromal is active in upstream and downstream oil and gas, while developing through direct investment or strategic public-private partnerships. The Petromal team, together with the heads of finance and treasury and business development managers from

ADNOC, came to Congo to explore potential opportunities for collaboration in the hydrocarbons sector..."

The reported ADNOC involvement suggests a semi-governmental role.

It already has a J/V with Petronor and, through them, with Perenco, an O + G explo company with a colourful past

https://www.perenco.com/our-group

Interesting FT article today, arguing that China's renewables drive will eventually lead to its being in a position to argue FOR climate-friendly policies, instead of dragging its feet eg on the coal power station front.

Relevant to ZIOC is this bit...

.." the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. (CBAM)... is making Chinese producers of the affected sectors work hard to reduce their carbon footprint so as not to be locked out of European markets. Here are two important observations about that. The huge resources Beijing has sunk into green tech should make it a lot easier for its companies to adapt to policies such as CBAM.

Meanwhile, on the EU side, the fact that the policy works — both in protecting green EU industry from being undercut by dirty competitors and in encouraging decarbonisation efforts elsewhere — will make it easier to expand CBAM to downstream products.

The political and economic logic for this to happen is after all undeniable: it doesn’t do to protect green but expensive steelmaking while ignoring that carmakers, say, still face being undercut by producers using cheap and dirty steel..."

Even an ill wind powers turbines...

GLA

Guys,

The Piraeus offer is highly conditional and very short on substance.

The facilities discussed are :

(1) Export factoring = discount of receivables ie any payment risk on buyer, AFTER HELD has jumped hoops on performance (production, quality etc);

(2) APG's in respect of grants ALREADY applied for ie self-liquidating discount of (short term?) receivables ie primary payment risk on grantor, not HELD (other than secondary recourse);

(3) unquantified working capital for plant expansion (presumably above that plant already (?) commissioned - isn't that enough for a while?)

No detail re amounts of ££ involved, facility tenor, facility pricing or security terms.

It also requires a detailed reworking/updating of HELD's business plan (the original IPO version presumably now superseded by the recently acknowledged 'pivot' in business model), to be submitted by an independent third party consultant acceptable to Piraeus. Apart from the additional cost, that's not exactly a vote of confidence in HELD management, is it?

Nor does it seem likely to be a quick process, IMO.

A step forward, to be sure, but not quite as it's been bigged up to be, AFAICS.

GLA

I've emailed AT asking for clarification as to whether Gary attended FMF and who (apart from himself) will be attending the PIF Feb event.

It may just be a coincidence, but our EPC Partner Perth signed a month ago a 12mtpa beneficiation plant contract with an un-named Brazilian company..

http://www.psei.com.cn/news/219.html

Perth has been awarded a current contract for a 12 million mt/year iron ore roll drying option in Brazil

Release time:2023-12-13 16:59:33 Popularity: 108

Recently, Perth was awarded the current contract for a 12 million tonnes/year iron ore roller drying option in Brazil.

A case of 'every little fits' ?

ATB

Alan Bates’s next campaign is on behalf of Burford and other litigation funders, enabling them to carry on business in the UK! www.ft.com/content/1b11f96d-b96d-4ced-9dee-98c40008b172

Interesting to see the story in the FT : from having been dismissive of BUR for a while, the FT has done a 'reverse ferret' and is now running an article saying what a Good Thing litigation finance is...

.."Alan Bates: Why I wouldn’t beat the Post Office today

Litigation funding is vital in supporting ordinary people in their fight against corporate giants — now it is under threat"

GLA

Meanwhile, Depeches on the 10th carries a report that C-B and UAE are moving ahead on a long-negotiated 'Global economic partnership agreement' GEPA

Denis Sassou N'Guesso and Sheikh Mohammed ben Zayed Al Nahyane have decided to " take the initiative to make a concrete contribution" to the global fight against climate change, by developing a major a major project to provide the Congolese population with access to electricity, through of gas-fired power generation, with zero and renewable energy.

renewable energy. They also decided to set up an agenda of investment projects in the main Congolese economic sectors as contained in the GEPA...".

Hi Jiving,

C-B has 10% free carry on an equity stake, AIUI, though not clear whether at TopCo or further down.

In any event, its 'shareholding' might normally imply a pro-rata share in offtake. Maybe there's scope for a trade-off, where GLEN is able to use its debt leverage with C-B and C-B's notional 10% to assuage Manara....

Meanwhile, DAK if Nagle was in Riyadh ? If he stayed away, that might equally be a pointer to wanting to avoid being put on the spot.

Who knows?

Che sara, sara.

You don't think that the CEO of GLEN (whose marketing/royalty agreement is likely its primary interest in ZIOC) would be interested in cultivating /mentoring a 'junior' fellow trading house ?

Or that Manara aspires to get involved throughout the entire chain - 'from the farm to the table', as the moderator put it?

Or that part of Manara's 'tradeable' offtake (ie the bit not required as its own feedstock) might come from a Zanaga producing in excess of the consortium members' own requirements ?

If you don't think this is interesting/potentially relevant to ZIOC, what sort of thing WOULD you consider substantive ?

Serious question!

...Which (Gary Nagle whereabouts) may segue neatly into the Manara Minerals thread that MM is running that touches on all things 'offtake' and an eventual MM trading arm a la GLEN or Trafigura....

Hmmm.

Hi ShrewdDude67,

I suspect/hope that ZIOC has now moved beyond the need for 'PR for PI's' (unlike Vision Blue, an assumption?) and AT (Corporate Development and IR Manager) can now best 'serve the cause' by saying nice generic things about the hosts and current state-of-play in the industry that leaves everyone feeling good...and encouraged to do deals.

I'm with Mitch 984, in that I imagine Marty and Jonny are mainly in the frame now, with Gary Valerius (CFO) and Colin Harris (Lead Technical Expert) getting into the nittty-gritty.

Which begs the question : did Gary Nagle eventually put in an appearance at FMF, was he conveniently nearby in case anything needed a top-level 'nudge'? DAK ?

GLA

Agreed, Jiving !

Then there's this link, from MM :

"Manara's ...management are looking around, finding different assets to buy or to partner with different countries."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-ups-mineral-resource-estimates-25-trillion-minister-2024-01-09/

.."Al-Khorayef has also said previously that the kingdom plans to move beyond exploration and extraction to processing and manufacturing.

"Saudi Arabia could be a good place for processing of different minerals where we see minerals being mined in Africa being processed here."

Indeed it could, Bandar !

The choreography - if it be such- is looking pretty good, IMO.

GLA

From your link...

.."Al-Khorayef has also said previously that the kingdom plans to move beyond exploration and extraction to processing and manufacturing.

"Saudi Arabia could be a good place for processing of different minerals where we see minerals being mined in Africa being processed here."

Indeed it could, Bandar !

" Sometimes it pays to post the reverse of what you are actually up to!"

Well, at least you're open about being intellectually dishonest. Some people are unintentional timewasters, who deserve our sympathy, deliberate ones don't.

You've joined a fairly exclusive club - posters I've bestirred myself to filter.

Good-bye.