The elephant in the room...25 Feb 2024 19:27
Long article in today's FT
..."How Germany’s steelmakers plan to go green
Europe’s biggest producer is moving away from carbon-intensive blast furnaces and towards hydrogen-powered processing..."
The gist :
- steel production is 7% of global CO2 emissions, 25% of Germany's;
- carbon credit offset (currently free/subsidized) will be phased out, therefore production > more expensive;
- historically, BFO was most popular route (1,400 units worldwide), because coal was a cheaper input than the electricity needed for EAF , feedstock scrap iron;
- solution ? switch to DRI, using sustainable hydrogen. Ta - dah !
- problem (for Germany) - how to produce H cheaply and at scale - so far unresolved;
- side-comment : DRI works with blue/grey hudrogen (ex natural gas) as well as 'green ' hydrogen (ex renewables), that's why most existing DRI plants (2022) are in gas-rich countries :
mtpa : India 40, Iran 35, Russia 8, Saudi 7, Egypt 6 , Mexico 5, US 5, Qatar 2, Trinidad 2.
[Ed.: India / Iran lead the pack because they have an historic local industrial base/demand; note all these DRI users total barely 110 mtpa];
- for Germany, there's an issue over availability/cost of its 'mandated/proposed' green hydrogen : Thyssen Krupp points out that its tender for 143K tonnes hydrogen feedstock alone would = 15% of all planned H production by 2030, which itself needs 500 x wind turbines;
- current H production (2022) meets only 2% of Europe's energy consumption....and 96% of that 2% is blue/grey ie from natural gas.....;-<
- forecasters estimate that 7% of Germany electricity would need to be dedicated/diverted to hydrogen production...so (ironically), the target of ending (dirty) coal for electricity is quietly being pushed back from 2030 to 2038...
- Germany's under more pressure to resolve this quandary , because it (still) has a sizeable manufacturing base (20% of economy), vs barely 10% in e.g. US, France or the UK [Ed.: we've offshored to China, so we have offshored this particular problem, but face the same self-inflicted immiseration in the long run, IMO...;-< ;
- article concludes that the solution (for Germany and maybe others in the Western consuming nations) is tariff barriers to make ITS steel still commercially viable. 'Going green' is desirable, the problem is 'how to get from here to there' ?
The article is specifically about Germany's problems and a (possible) solution for Germany, but it throws useful light/info on issues facing others.
The biggest unaddressed elephant in the room is the emergence of a 'cleaner, greener, objectively cheaper' solution elsewhere (mainly in the M East).
A second unaddressed elephant in the room is that wherever DRI is seen as the solution, the other key feedstock that will AIUI improve metrics (cost/quality/price premium/emissions) is iron ore....
GLA and ATB