Member Info for extrader

Well....

- it's interesting to me that despite a 17% shareholding AND offtake arrangement, GLEN's stake in HZM doesn't appear to figure in its Resources statement, discussed a few days back

https://www.glencore.com/.rest/api/v1/documents/static/a53e27b1-6025-4ef2-9be8-f3be543dfb26/GLENCORE-Resources-and-Reserves-report-2023.pdf

where there was discussion about the significance (if any) of the earlier comment

'Glencore is no longer an active participant in the previously-disclosed Zanaga project'...

It would seem that GLEN can be actively involved in a project under development and not feel obliged to disclose it, AFAICS.

So, why the change , for Zanaga, now?

HTH

MBS and MBZ may (or may not) get along locally, but they (and other Gulf SWFs) can clearly co-operate when it suits....

https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/abu-dhabi-sovereign-wealth-fund-in-talks-for-heathrow-airport-stake-alongsi/

.."Reports suggest that the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is considering an investment in London’s Heathrow Airport, potentially joining forces with Saudi and Qatari investors.

The potential deal, as reported by Bloomberg, could see the UAE’s Mubadala Investment Company partnering with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Qatar’s Investment Authority to acquire stakes in the West London Hub..."

GLA

Meawhile, this development elsewhere may be something of a negative for GLEN's interest (or otherwise) in being involved with a greenfield project .

"Glencore-backed nickel miner Horizonte issues finance warning"

I don't follow HZM, but there seems to have been a serious blow-out on project development costs (doubling to $ 1 Bn) and first production - already postponed to Q3 2024 - has now been pushed back to Q 1 2026.

"The mismanaged budgeting is a blow to Glencore, which holds 17.7 per cent of the company’s shares and is entitled to future supply from the mine for 10 years."

It's not clear from the article what the causes of the delay/over-runs are, hopefully there's no read-across to ZIOC's greenfield site.

If the ultimate cause of the go-slow is prospective over-supply of nickel, the same cannot be said AFAICS for 'green ore',

quite 'au contraire' in fact.

GLA

Meawhile, this development elsewhere may be something of a negative for GLEN's interest (or otherwise) in being involved with a greenfield project .

"Glencore-backed nickel miner Horizonte issues finance warning"

I don't follow HZM, but there seems to have been a serious blow-out on project development costs (doubling to $ 1 Bn) and first production - already postponed to Q3 2024 - has now been pushed back to Q 1 2026.

"The mismanaged budgeting is a blow to Glencore, which holds 17.7 per cent of the company’s shares and is entitled to future supply from the mine for 10 years."

It's not clear from the article what the causes of the delay/over-runs are, hopefully there's no read-across to ZIOC's greenfield site.

If the ultimate cause of the go-slow is prospective over-supply of nickel, the same cannot be said AFAICS for 'green ore',

quite 'au contraire' in fact.

GLA

.."detractors ( TW, EX,TA,L, etc etc) which have contributed..."

Can't speak for anyone else you've mentioned, but I fail to see how my pointing out discrepancies, inconsistencies, falsehoods or implications of things SYME/AZ has done, said or RNS'd is a 'contribution' to the present situation people find themselves in.

GLA

From today's FT

‘Strings attached’: Saudi Arabia steps up demands in tech deals with China"

..... There is a hidden motivation for the increased investment relationship between China and Saudi Arabia,” said Chris Vassallo, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “The kingdom is maybe sitting on a large pile of renminbi from selling oil to China, the uses of which are not manifold. One way is to spend on Chinese goods and services.”

'Every little helps'.

GLA

From today's FT

‘Strings attached’: Saudi Arabia steps up demands in tech deals with China"

..... There is a hidden motivation for the increased investment relationship between China and Saudi Arabia,” said Chris Vassallo, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “The kingdom is maybe sitting on a large pile of renminbi from selling oil to China, the uses of which are not manifold. One way is to spend on Chinese goods and services.”

'Every little helps'.

GLA

Ashmore on Argentina

"Argentina: The Treasury reached an ARS 2trn primary surplus in January, the first monthly surplus excluding interest payments since 2011, a sign that the country is moving forward with its aggressive fiscal consolidation despite political challenges. Argentinian Eurobonds rallied last week after reports that Milei was considering breaking down the omnibus bill into several “digestible” bits and deepen its alliance with Macri’s Juntos por Cambio, a pragmatic turn. CPI inflation increased to 254% yoy in January, from 211% in December, slightly less than expected. In mom terms, CPI inflation fell from 25.5% to 20.6%."

GLA

.."Its AZ and some investors investing €1.5 million so the Stock Company can buy the inventory..."

It may be semantics, but surely its more a case of AZ and some investors putting up a security margin to encourage the lender to provide finance so the Stock Company can buy the inventory...?

Priming the pump, to coin a phrase.

AFAICS

Let's see if history rhymes.

Remember this article ?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X22001113

"The South–South investment that never happened: Vale in Guinea"

.."In Agnelli's strive to convince shareholders about the importance of investing in Africa, President Lula (2003–2010) turned out to be an unexpected ally for the pursuit and operationalization of Vale's ambitions. The Brazilian President not only supported Agnelli's international aspirations, but he also put the state apparatus at Vale's service. “Everyone was mesmerized with the velocity with which Brazil expanded its outreach in the region where Vale planned to expand its business”, according to a source.9 Along with the wave of new cooperation projects in Mozambique, discussed in greater detail in other articles of this special issue, the Brazilian government also announced the opening of a network of embassies in West Africa, from Guinea to Liberia and Sierra Leone, countries where Vale would need strong diplomatic support from Brasília. In the process, Lula and Agnelli forged a personal relationship based on a shared vision of Brazil as a global player and on their complementary personalities. Agnelli's personal yet aggressive negotiating style paired well with Lula's union leader skills based on dialog and concertation. Inside Vale, the symbiosis between Agnelli and Lula created the impression that the company's fate was tied to that of the Brazilian foreign policy..."

Tick tock.

Big Den and Lula go back a long way.

Asperbras Angola was allegedly the source of a lot of the Lula presidential campaign advertising money. After his election victory, Brazil rescheduled/forgave a chunk of C-B's trade debt (some $ 280m?) within the IMF Paris Club commercial debts restructuring.

It's easy to be generous with 'other people's money'!

Ho hum.

Of only tangential interest here, BUR's largest (10.5%) shareholder, Saudi's entrepreneurial Mithaq Capital has just swooped on a distressed US retail company :

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/children-s-place-s-stock-pops-21-after-investor-group-takes-majority-stake/ar-BB1ijZ9S

Market comment highlights aggressive, contrarian and opportunistic approach to business.

Mithaq is the family investment co of the principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world by capital and one of the largest joint stock co's in Saudi Arabia.

GLA

And, from your first link :

Total - 1002 Mt @ 66.63% Fe, 1.21% Al2O3, 2.32% SiO2,1.17% LOI, 0.030% P

Mbalam Nabeba

- Silica 4.4% vs. ZIOC 3.5>3.0% Simandou 2.32%

- Alumina 2.6% vs. ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4% Simandou 1.21%

- Phos 0.09% vs. ZIOC 0.04% Simandou 0.03%

ZIOC better than Simandou on alumina, not so on silica, AFAICS.

Is one (low impurity level) more attractive than the other ?

From your link, Zanaga gets the barest of mentions, under 'Other' p32-33.

After running through various 'contenders/outliers' in Brazil, Canada and Australia, we see, right at conclusion:

..."In Africa, Glencore owns 50%100 of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in Congo-Brazzaville,

and proposes to mine up to 30Mtpa of 66% Fe hematite and 68.5% magnetite...."

taken from the Zioc Mar 2019 Investor Presentation.

The authors seem to share the Wood Mackenzie blind spot re Africa...

WM are the people, remember, more confident re Mbalam-Nabeba than re ZIOC . And yet, there we see

Mbalam-Nabeba isn't even close.

Not only half (maybe less) of ZIOC volume, but also lower quality - 62.6% Fe (cf ZIOC Stage 1 66% > Stage2 68.5%) with LOTS of impurities (see p.13 of the recent presentation):

- Silica 4.4%, ZIOC 3.5>3.0%

- Alumina 2.6%, ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4%

- Phos 0.09% , ZIOC 0.04%

Maybe the penny will drop before long...

GLA and ATB

It seems to me that we have here a replay of the 'transition arrangements' question facing the climate change issue as a whole, ie the pace and direction of the migration from the old to the new.

The starry-eyed climate changers are forcing the pace on 'renewables' whilst ignoring the practicalities of costs/possible complications, whilst ignoring the vast investments sunk into existing (working) arrangements.

This is replicated in the 'narrow' green ore debate : everyone's agreed it's 'desirable', the question is - at what cost to the existing 'world order'- and who will pay ?

China isn't going to mothball serviceable steel mills until it makes economic sense - it's certainly not doing that with its expansive coal-power plans : it's twin/multi-tracking its energy supply arrangements.

Australia - facing a potential double whammy threat to its 2 x major exports - coal and iron ore - will be even keener to postpone even what may eventually be 'the inevitable'.

Something similar seems likely to be the future of 'green ore' : less rapid adoption than the advocates would like, commensurate with 'affordability'.

I've already pointed to the article re Simandou - 'a bet on decarbonisation' - link originally provided by MM, ironically, which acknowledges this underlying dynamic/tension.

The Gulfies are investing for the future, not defending the past / present and don't have the 'legacy capital' issues facing others.

Being 'unencumbered' gives them a different outlook, hopefully more favourable to Zanaga.

All AFAICS.

GLA

Hi atg,

I was aware of the Falcon, that was seized in Toulouse (there for maintenance), when someone switched the AISC back on...that was many years ago.

My question was more as to whether BigDen still had access to the Sheikh's 757 VP-CAL as reported a while back (which would be definitely 'interesting' in itself) or has acquired some other benefactor (ditto).

Eddsy ?

TIA

Encouraging, certainly!

What call sign are you tracking?

The news prompted me to do a quick check on PP-FCC, but that's been in Florida the last 10 days, I'm pretty sure it's Asperbras-owned, the folk behind the recently resurrected 2013 12x hospitals contract.

Let's see what Monday brings. Some progress would certainly be welcome.

ATB

PS the PN stuff is in an ad by CMA-CGM somewhere in the middle.

.."Friday's depeches carries 2 x snippets of general interest :.."

https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/

Cover and last page Friday 9th Feb.

ATB

د. ثاني أحمد الزيودي

@ThaniAlZeyoudi

·

Feb 9

The UAE and Congo-Brazzaville are forging a trade partnership rich in potential. In December, we finalized terms of a CEPA, which will build on the $10.9bn in non-oil bilateral trade recorded in the first 9 months of 2023 – an 83.1% increase on the same period in 2022

د. ثاني أحمد الزيودي

@ThaniAlZeyoudi

·

Feb 9

I was delighted to meet HE Jean-Baptiste Ondaye, Minister of Economy & Finance, today and begin plans for the CEPA's implementation. As their 8th-largest export market, we also discussed ways to leverage the UAE's role as a key global gateway for Congo-Brazaville's exporters.

HTH