Member Info for extrader

Hi Vet10,

Thanks for this.

There's a lot of MoU about, let's hope for some substance in ZIOC's next update.

The rush to green ore is being challenged by the realities of Chinese economic slowdown, per the CRU consultant " the high-grade ore from Simandou would be preferred when steel margins were favourable.

“In the current scenario, where steelmakers are struggling with the weak margins, they would still opt for lower grade ores to control their productivity, making ores from Australia preferable,” she said".

That, of course, hardly addresses China's strategic desire to wean itself off dependency on Australia!

The article ref to Mbalam Nabeba on the one hand - and to Tsingshan Group's building a US$1.5 billion steel plant in Zimbabwe- is interesting, Tsingshan is name-checked as a possible offtaker in the Chinese consortium proposed (April 2023), see https://www.businessincameroon.com/mining/1304-13043-chinese-tsingshan-bids-for-mbalam-iron-output

.."Chinese Tsingshan International reached a binding Memorandum of Understanding with CCC Mining Group Limited, an associate entity of Bestway Finance on the Mbalam iron project, to acquire part of the project’s output. ...other participants named are China Railway 20 Bureau Group Corporation (CR20G), China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), and China National Chemical Engineering Heavy-Mechanized Corporation Ltd (CNCEHMC)..."

This is interesting (if confusing!) because 'our' CMEC is IN, while BaoWu and Yantian Port (named Feb 2022) appear to be OUT, see

https://www.businessincameroon.com/mining/0103-12371-mbalam-nabeba-project-the-five-chinese-firms-eying-the-exploitation-component-revealed

.."a consortium, possibly with Chinese firms Yiantian Port, China Railways Corporation Co (CRCC), Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC), China Baowu Steel Group, Shanghai Tsingshan Mineral Co Ltd, and the partner of the Nabeba project...."

Reminder : Mbalam-Nabeba concession is currently being litigated for 'illegal expropriation' (Sundance Resources) and the journalist acknowledges the lack of transparency in the reported offtake proposal.

The 'evolving' structure of the Mbalam-Nabeba consortium suggests to me that they're still 'winging ' it.

From ZIOC's point of view, maybe it's helpful that BaoWu is seemingly no longer 'spoken for' ?

GLA and ATB

Https://libertysteelgroup.com/liberty-steel-signs-mou-with-ad-ports-group-to-explore-plans-to-host-a-green-iron-production-facility-in-kezad/,

which claims that it will source quality magnetite from Australia.

The Gupta group is pretty 'entrepreneurial' , seems to be mainly good at harvesting subsidies from the naive and unsuspecting, see

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-59332620

Lots of bees around the honey-pot...

GLA

Thanks, Vestry!

Do you have links to the other 'trade expansion' stories, pls?

I'm interested in finding out whether the Gulf Arabs (mainly Abu Dhabi/AD Ports) are 'in the mix'.

TIA and ATB

.."And if this share price increase by 85% from Jan 10th….i’ll eat my pants!!.."

34.9 x 1.85 = 64.565p.

Popcorn at the ready. Filtered until then.

That was an easy decision.

ATB

Oops!

I should have made clear that GGAL and YPF prices are those of their NY-listed $ denominated ADR's....

Hi Forensic 505,

My guess is that the mark-up is a considered reflection of changing prospects on a blend of Argentina's ability AND willingness to pay. A court judgment-improving enforcement/recovery prospects- must improve the 'willingness (gritted teeth)' metric ?

Argentina sovereign debt prices in the secondary market have risen from a low of 18c 2 years ago, through 22c a year ago and currently stand at around 34c (on the dollar).

Although not strictly comparable (and there's an added factor in that they're in differing sectors, with their own specific characteristics), here's what's happened to the share prices of 2 businesses in Argentina : Grupo Galicia (GGAL) - a financial services group - and YPF itself over the last 3 years.

The share-price is a fair proxy for (1) the 'smart money's ' assessment of likely realisability of the company's business plan and (2) associated 'country' risk.

-GGAL has progressed from $7 through $9 to $10 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $24;

-YPF has progressed from $4 through $4.30 to $ 9.50 as at 12 months ago and today stands at $ 18.30;

Again, we're not comparing like-with-like, but BUR's evaluation doesn't seem to be an outlier. And, presumably, it's been passed by its auditors....

AFAICS/NAI/DYOR

GLA and ATB

Two comments from elsewhere

Highly Geared13 Mar '24 - 19:18 - 1073 of 1075

Indeed. I think the CEO mentioned $40m - $50m FCF from the end of this year. So about £35m. I’d value on about 5x FCF, which doubles the current share price.

74tom13 Mar '24 - 21:51 - 1074 of 1075

He said $50-60m free cash flow PA, so £43m at the midpoint, which at 5x would put shares at 98p.

We can debate whether a 5X FCF multiple is the right one, but the overall outlook on that metric is favourable, IMO.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

Mind you, check the poster's history....and you can see where he's coming from...

Sent 29 Dec 2023, share price 37p

.."…just a pre warning that you might want to short this! I’m in here for a few k and already down. My last two stocks were bad.

Dev_clever lost me (100%) £20k in investment and over £100 before they went bust unexpectedly. They did a voluntary suspension and then went bust.

Helium 1 lost me about £2k (50%) when I sold and a then dropped further to a total of 86% down in 5 weeks .

So I am the kiss of death. Currently 5% down, so good luck to you all. You’ll need it with me on board..."

As my father always said, when reading an article' 'Consider the source'...

GLA and ATB

Thanks for this!

Hopefully, there'll be an update shortly, to factor in the end 2023 numbers...

pp 22 and 68 list 'recent acquisitions'and seemed to suggest 'open to offers/look what we've got';

pp 54 shows geographic expansion plans (S/T Uruguay and Guyana, longer term Colombia, Ecuador, Peru). Curious that there's no ref to the J/V in Chile (?);

pp 17 and 32 show existing connections. I look at the gap across to Congo (Pointe Noire), where expansionist AbuDhabi Ports has just taken a 30 year concession and wonder if they're in the frame...

ATB and GLA

Today's BrazzaNews carries a story about imminent disposal (for scrap) of an EquatorialCongo EC Air Boeing 757 (Congo's former national airline) that has sat abandoned at Brussels airport for the last 7 years, for unpaid debts.

Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_Congo_Airlines, says

..."The airline commenced operating in September 2011, and it was reported that the carrier's business plan does not expect it to become profitable until its third year of operation, i.e. 2014. No annual reports have been published, and the main sources for business information are press releases and reports. According to Swiss journalist Marc Renfer in an article published on official media, ECAir lost over 450 million Euros between 2011 and 2016...."

By contrast, Ethiopian Airlines shows what CAN be achieved, if managed properly :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines

.."Ethiopian Airlines is Africa's largest airline in terms of passengers carried, destinations served, fleet size, and revenue. Ethiopian is also the world's fourth-largest airline by the number of countries served..."

GLA and ATB

It's Ramadan, guys, anything could happen...or nothing until after Eid.

As-sabr jameel : 'patience is a beautiful thing'.

GLA

.."My mistake.They aren't Israeli owned-i was getting mixed up with MTI Wireless Edge,another of ST's shares..."

Mebbe worth clarifying that this ST = Simon Thompson of the Chronic Investor and not Simon Tucker of SRT !

I nearly had a heart attack, on first read ;-<

ATB

Ashmore's comments this week :

.."Argentina: Vehicle sales increased to 33.2k in February from 15.9k in January as production increased to 37.5k from 22.6k over the same period, the highest level for the month in five years, but still below the average over the last 10 years. Vehicle exports rose to 23.6k from 15.3k (highest since 2015). Construction activity dropped by 10.3% mom in January, a drop of 21.7% in yoy seasonal-adjusted terms. The central bank continued to accumulate FX reserves and Bloomberg reported locals have deposited USD 2.3bn in dollar-denominated accounts in local banks since Javier Milei took office, a 17% increase to USD 16.4bn."

GLA

Hi Hardboy,

SRT's website shows shareholdings as :

Significant Shareholders

Mr and Mrs Persey Ordinary Share: 30,726,184 Holding: 13.56%

Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) Ordinary Share: 24,796,425 Holding: 11.14%

Ocean Infinity Group Limited Ordinary Share: 19,800,000 Holding: 8.89%

Mr & Mrs Brierwood Ordinary Share: 20,558,567 Holding: 9.23%

Directors Ordinary Share: 18,366,999 Holding: 8.25%

Interactive Investor Ordinary Share: 15,603,468 Holding: 7.01%

Mr Ian Michael & Mrs Caroline Elizabeth Laing Ordinary Share: 7,867,570 Holding: 3.53%

Mr J M Horne Ordinary Share: 7,740,100 Holding: 3.52%

The first named (as opposed to nominee) II appears to be Toscafund, on about 1%

Chair is Kevin Finn, Rogers is a (founder) NED.

AFAICS

Hi MM,

Intriguing find !

The Pro-active interview was apparently 'disappeared' on 26 Oct 2020, 4 days before the 30 Oct 2020 AGM.

The interview dates from 19 Dec 2019 (ie just pre-Covid) a follow-up to the 11 Dec 2019 RNS about the Framework Agreement struck with Coidic and (colour me cynical) the 30 Aug 2019 RNS about Management Incentivisation Scheme, approved at the 3rd Sept 2019 AGM.

Apart from COIDIC's activities down at PN and the SEZ, including poss. steel mill, AT spoke about co-operation at the mine itself, namely (1) the process plant (3:58) and mentioned that COIDIC partners had built process plants and (2) hydrodams in Congo (between 4:50 and 5:30).

This would be consistent with the 11 Dec 2019 RNS

.."Aspects of the cooperation

The Parties envisage that if discussions progress in a mutually beneficial way, there is the opportunity for them to agree and enter into a number of agreements, including separate Joint Development Agreements, for specific aspects of the relevant area of the Zanaga Project and also a capacity agreement with MPT (including tariff provisions and usage of port facilities).

The cooperation could also include the GENERATION OF TECHNICAL AND OTHER STUDIES studies for the development of the Zanaga Project and its infrastructure needs and DEVELOPING AN INVESTMENT MODEL FOR THE PROJECT..."

This seems to tie in with the scope (and expanded scope) of the studies by our EPC Partner, believed to be PSEI.

PSEI seems to have displaced the members of COIDIC that are 'planners and designers'....and just-announced CMEC ( MoU 28 Dec 2023 re hydro) appears to have displaced COIDIC member China Gezhouba.

Both CMEC and China Gezhouba fit the description 'have built hydrodams in Congo' : CMEC was responsible for Imboulou (120 Mw , 2011), cost $ 377M, WITH 85% SOFT LOAN FUNDING BY CHINA.

https://www.hydroreview.com/world-regions/120-mw-hydro-project0/

After 12 years, this dam ALREADY needs rehabilitation, per https://constructafrica.com/news/concession-signed-congo-dam-rehabilitation-project (July 2023, Little Den signs).

while Gezhouba was responsible for Liouesso (19 Mw, 2017), cost about $ 110M

https://www.hydroreview.com/world-regions/africa/congo-republic-s-19-9-mw-liouesso-hydroelectric-project-

funding unclear.

After 5 years, this dam ALSO needs rehabilitation, which Gezhouba (!) will do - along with 2 x new dams, 230Mw at Morala and 101 Mw at Nyanga, per

( May 2022) https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/chinas-gezhouba-group-will-build-two-dams-totalling-331-mw-congo.html, no details re funding (PPP) or progress since signing.

Consortium partner Energaz is an Obambi vehicle, see him with Little Den here

https://www.afrik21.africa/en/congo-cggc-and-energaz-sign-ppp-for-two-331-mw-hydroelectric-plants/

Conclusion : we're still broadly following the COIDIC gameplan, with different actors. And Little Den 's 'involved'...

AFAICS

ATB

Https://www.mining.com/web/vale-ceo-to-keep-job-through-2024-as-miner-seeks-successor/

Bartolomeo's CEO role ends May 2024, he wants to stay on. Compromise agreement : he gets to stay on to Dec 2024 and is retained as an adviser to 2025.

.."The outcome follows weeks of drama over the selection of Vale’s next leader amid mounting pressure from the Brazilian government to intervene in the succession process. The wrangling has put a spotlight on the government’s influence in the mining sector, even though the metals producer was privatized in 1997...."

.."The market has recognized Bartolomeo’s legacy on safety, including a plan to eliminate dozens of high-risk tailings dams and a $7.6 billion settlement over the Brumadinho dam collapse in southeastern Brazil. On the flip side, investors have been concerned about operational performance and costs control, along with the perception that Vale could better navigate relations with states and the federal government.

Vale could play a strategic role in efforts by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to reboot Brazil’s economy. For the metal producer, government support could help cut through bureaucracy on issue such as environmental permits and railroad concessions that have hobbled the company’s ambitions..."

Bartolomeo signed various Gulf mill MoU's but the vision is (so far) incomplete ; Lula wants to re-boot the Brazilian economy; Vale ambitions (with Simandou) was seen as a manifestation/driver of Brazil foreign policy....

Q : Will Bartolomeo/Vale/Lula get a chance to wrap things up before he steps down.... or the Chinese make their move ?

Interesting times.

GLA and ATB

And, coincidentally/conveniently - hat tip to MM - we learn that PIF is usefully 'cashed up' :

"(WSJ) Saudi Arabia has moved a roughly $160 billion stake in its state oil giant into its main sovereign wealth fund...."

Ho hum.

Hi Jiving

Not your typical contribution! Comes a bit out of left field, as it were...

;->

https://www.geordiebootboys.com/takeover/carla-dibello-opens-up-on-the-saudi-backed-newcastle-takeover-pif-staveley/

.."Staveley tried and failed to buy the club previously, but this time she is working with the financial muscle of PIF. That appears to have been the gamechanger for PCP.

Would PIF and Staveley have came together without DiBello? Possibly not. She has worked a lot in Saudi Arabia, and spoke about PIF’s investment plans..."

This lass is at least easier on the eye than most of the 'intermediaries' that usually crop up when big deals are hatched.

Whatever it takes, IMO.

Have a great weekend.

ATB

Another take on Argentina, from Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cognitive-investments-welcomes-jacob-l-130000396.html

.. I think there’s a lot of interesting things happening around the world, but I really do think Argentina is an interesting place to keep focused. Now, I’m not saying that Milei is going to be able to turn it around, and he’s got a long road to hoe, but part of me wonders, is this... Brazil had a moment like this around ‘94, ‘95 where they had hyperinflation, and they really had to reset things, and they had to think very clearly about structural reforms. It took them until about now to get to the point where all of that was starting to pay off.

I wonder if Argentina is at the very, very beginning moments of that, where we finally ticked bottom, and that Milei is a signal that people want real change there.

It’s interesting because from a geopolitical perspective, Argentina has everything you possibly could want. It’s the entrance to the Rio de la Plata, really doesn’t have any rivals around it that are going to threaten it, it can play all sides, ample resources that it can export. They have their own version of the shale revolution happening, so they’re going to add hydrocarbons to the list.

If you could just—but people have been saying this about Argentina for 100 years too—but if you could just get them to change their culture... and maybe it takes a guy who communes with his dead dog to get election strategy to be the man to push it forward.

As we’re looking back at 2023 and 2024, I wonder if we’ll say, “That was the year that Argentina finally started to change.” It’s a very interesting political experiment that’s happening..."

GLA and ATB

I listened to YPF Q4/FYE results presentation the other day.

Presentation by 3 x execs, in English, somewhat wooden 'talking to teleprompter' and slides supporting commentary that were difficult to read and only shown briefly. Interesting background footage of YPF operations and the Argentine countryside.

My summary take-away :

- YPF has a 4x4 plan - to quadruple the share price in 4 years. The way it hopes to do this shows the extent of economic mismanagement (but also potential):

- it wants to divest a large part of its bloated historic businesses (60% of its oil production + 40% of its gas production) that together contribute barely 1% - 1% !- to the bottom line;

- it hopes to have awarded an arranger mandate for multiple discrete privatisations by end Q1 2024 and have the divestment process underway by Q3 2024;

- use the proceeds (+ external funding + 'strategic partner') to develop its world-class LNG potential (hitherto unexploited) over the next 3-4 years (leasing floating LNG plants to kickstart the process), with eventual targets of 25-30 mtpa and $ 15Bn pa export earnings;

[Ed.: for comparison, Qatar 77mtpa; Australia 44mtpa; Malaysia 24mtpa; Nigeria 22mtpa; Indonesia 16mtpa; Algeria 12mtpa; Russia 10mtpa; Trinidad 10mtpa; Oman 8mtpa];

- divestment/privatisation is expected to unlock the 'hidden value' of assets-for-sale (hidden by bloated workforces, financial mismanagement and unproductive past 'politically-directed' investment), YPF counting on est. cost-savings of $ 800m pa as much as on actual sale proceeds [Ed.: management understandably reticent to quantify these];

- all the while, YPF expects to build on the 25% contribution of renewables (solar/wind) to the current bottom line.

Management fielded questions from UBS, JP Morgan, Santander, BTG Pascual and - I think- Seb Maril's LatAm Securities, with what I thought were fairly vague answers to a lot of the harder questions, perhaps understandably so, given the 'uncharted waters' that Argentina is now in.

I've had a shareholding in both BUR and YPF for a while now, am comfortably up on both and see no reason atm to divest.

NAI, DYOR, E&OE etc etc