Member Info for extrader

.." When this project hits 30 mtpa (let alone 60mtpa) the pounds we are talking are not the share price but dividends per share..."

What are we missing here? On the face of it, your pov is compelling....why is the price then still where it is ?

There must be any number of HNWI's, family offices, hedge funds etc for whom a shareholding here (until they've chased the price up, and even then...) would be a moment's 'mad money' punt...pull the one-armed bandit as you pass by and keep on walking...stop only if you hear a kerching....only walk back if the kerching carries on long enough....

As things progress, the number of people 'in the know' must increase and - with it - a greater likelihood of being confident of being able to remain anonymous.

'It's a mystery'.

ATB and GLA

For some reason, I'm reminded of this :

https://www.nlpschool.com/games-people-play-yes-but-game/

..."How do you spot if someone is playing a psychological game with you? A good way to work it out is through energy: if after you have interacted with someone you feel your energy has been drained and the other person seems somehow uplifted and re-energised – you have a good clue that you have ‘caught up’ in one of their games.

But what are games? And how can we come to understand them?

What are games?

Eric Berne published his book Games People Play the year I was born – 1961. In his book, he tried to clearly define the different types of games that we are prone to playing with each other.

Perhaps you know someone where they complain about something, and you then suggest a solution and they then say “Yes but…”. This interaction continues until eventually you feel frustrated and bewildered; at that point you have been caught in a game.

How to stop playing games

The key point about games is what Berne called ‘superficially rational’ – the person seems to have a genuine problem, but the hidden truth is they don’t want your help to fix it, they simply want your attention. The reason for this is as they can’t find a way of getting attention in a positive way, they have learnt ways to gain that attention negatively.

So how do you stop playing these ‘games’? As Berne put it in his usual succinct way, “ THE ONLY WAY TO STOP PLAYING A GAME IS TO STOP PLAYING.”

If the cap fits, etc...

ATB

Hi all,

Whilst we look forward to more detail as the story progresses, here's an article for the turf enthusiasts amongst us , with some interesting read-across for business decisions....but which also registers with me - as I try to become more self-aware - in my approach to investment :

https://paulwriter.com/your-thirst-for-information-is-killing-innovation/

Key takeaway : More information doesn’t improve the ability to make good predictions, and can actually create a confirmation bias that leads to bad decisions.

In ZIOC's case, the big picture has always been that it's a fantastic resource, promoted by serious people, held back by some (surmountable/addressable) obstacles...and that - under favourable conditions and other things being equal - it's got a better than evens chance of working out, when ' the causes and conditions are right'.

And I invested , 6 or 7 years ago now, on that basis.

Some might say, ah, but the devil is in the detail.

Perhaps. But 'more detail' - ' the small stuff' - doesn't in itself change 'the big picture'.

Step back a bit and look at Vet10's question re possible participants : interesting 'detail' (and I'm probably more guilty than most in being keen to speculate !) ...but whether it's other Gulf SWF's; Vale; BaoWu; Australian/Indian/Japanese/Korean mining houses and/or steelco's, whatever...the 'detail' is secondary, the key takeaway is that they're all 'world-class'.

The numbers may change (I'm now well above my own 'prudential/comfort zone' limits), but the big picture remains.

GLA and ATB

Could be.

Obambi's certainly a busy boy these days, he's just signed up for a logistics upgrade of Douala Port, Cameroon.

https://billionaires.africa/2023/12/26/congolese-businessman-paul-obambi-to-invest-74-million-in-douala-port-project/

.."Sapro Logistics Cameroon, the Cameroonian arm of the Sapro Group led by Congolese businessman Paul Obambi, has secured a $74 million agreement with the Autonomous Port of Douala (PAD) to modernize port infrastructure and ease congestion.

The deal, signed on Dec. 21, 2023, follows a three-year selection process where Sapro emerged victorious. The ambitious project, starting at an unspecified date, will be executed under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model with an estimated three-year timeline.

Sapro Logistics Cameroon pledges to shoulder the entire $74 million investment (excluding taxes) independently, without financial support from Douala Port authorities or the Cameroonian state. This self-funded approach underscores Sapro’s confidence in the project’s viability and potential to transform the port’s infrastructure and alleviate congestion..."

Hi StarBright,

Would Shard - as a broker- have to disclose straight away any subscriptions it filled?

Since it hasn't bought the shares in the first place, how close to the 'live' price does it have to be ? It doesn't have a book to match, it just picks up 5% of any sale proceeds...AIUI

But that reminds me : in all of today's other news, there's still a GLEN loan falling due on/by 31st, IIRC.

Guess we'll find out before close of business tomorrow ?

ATB

More flavour here : https://www.businessnewse.com/2023/12/28/uae-and-congo-brazzaville-finalize-terms-of-a-comprehensive-economic-partnership-agreement/

.."Abu Dhabi, UAE, 28th December 2023: The United Arab Emirates and the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville have concluded the terms of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), a deal that will facilitate greater trade and investment flows as the two nations pursue deeper economic ties. The conclusion of negotiations was confirmed by the signing of a joint statement by His Excellency Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, and His Excellency Jean-Baptiste Ondaye, Minister of Economy and Finance for the Republic of Congo-Brazzaville.

Once ratified and implemented, the UAE-Congo-Brazzaville CEPA will reduce or remove tariffs, eliminate unnecessary barriers to trade, improve market access, enhance customs procedures, and create platforms for investment and private sector collaboration in strategic sectors.

The deal builds on growing bilateral cooperation between the two sides, which in H1 2023 saw non-oil trade increase 134 percent over H1 2022 to reach $US2.1 billion. The deal also follows the signing of three strategic agreements between the nations in early 2023 including a double taxation avoidance agreement, an investment promotion and protection agreement, and an air transport agreement....

For Congo-Brazzaville, His Excellency Jean-Baptiste Ondaye said: “I have no doubt that the strategic partnership agreement with the United Arab Emirates that we have just concluded today will greatly contribute to THE FINANCING OF STRUCTURING (sic) PROJECTS IN CONGO.”

Congo-Brazzaville, officially known as the Republic of the Congo, is located in West-Central Africa, bordered by Gabon, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Angola. The total value of non-oil trade between the UAE and Congo-Brazzaville reached approximately $2.2 billion in 2022, a growth of 5% compared to 2021 and a growth of 29% compared to 2020. According to 2022 data, Congo-Brazzaville is the twelfth largest trading partner of the UAE among non-Arab African countries, with the UAE ranking eighth largest export market for Congo Brazzaville and thirteenth largest import market.

The UAE accounts for about 72% of Congo-Brazzaville’s non-oil trade with Arab countries..."

ATB

This was Little Den's tweet of 6th October :

.."On October 6 at Dubai Expo City, I met HE Reem Ebrahim Al Hashimy, UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation. I reiterated to herthe invitation from the Congolese authorities to the United Arab Emirates to participate in the Three Basins summit, focused on environmental preservation, which will take place in Brazzaville at the end of the current month.

We also discussed the ambitious project underway with ADP ( @ADPortsGroup ): the construction of a multipurpose terminal at the autonomous port of Pointe-Noire, for which the concession agreement was signed in June 2023. I requested the support from the UAE government to ensure the success of this already initiated project.

Finally, we had discussions on the free trade agreement between Congo and the United Arab Emirates that we must sign at the next COP, then we talked about the possibility of establishing a direct air link between our countries . These two initiatives aim to stimulate commercial and cultural exchanges between the United Arab Emirates and Congo."

Ref to port and to free trade agreement.....

Another duck just quacked IMO.

ATB

Worth comparing today's RNS with the Key Milestone Objectives per Interim Results RNS of 29 September.

(A) What EPCPartner/Perth was tasked with :

(1) Phase 1 Feasibility Study update re Stage 1 (12 mtpa) and Stage 2 (30mtpa) Projects . Status : DONE.

(2) Phase 2 Processing technology application study : Beneficiation technology, with further potential cost savings.

Status : UNDERWAY

Comment : Perth has just (13 Dec 2023) announced a pre-contract for design of a 12mtpa plant , for Vale, see http://www.psei.com.cn/news/219.html.

Coincidence ? Maybe...but the workings re costings, engineering process flow etc are presumably 'transferable'...and certainly timely.

(B) Port infrastructure discussions underway

o Discussions are in progress with a large port infrastructure development firm, including consideration of:

§ Opportunity for expansion of the existing port of Pointe-Noire.

§ Potential development solutions for a large bulk mineral port capable of supporting the Zanaga 30Mtpa staged development project.

Status : NO UPDATE TODAY

Comment : I've recently queried with AT AD Ports' apparently 'masterly inactivity' since securing its 30 year concession back in June, over 6 months ago. AFAICS, little news, save for an anti-smuggling initiative by Obambi (as head of the business community).

Which apparently involved suggesting that the already installed container scanners should be switched on, btw..... ;->

Today's RNS brings CMEC into the picture re hydro ( usefully green , btw) ...and potentially also re any port expansion, AFAICS :

MM has helpfully pointed to the MoU between AD Ports and CMEC for extensive global co-operation, SIGNED A MONTH AFTER AD PORTS WON THE PN CONCESSION.

Another coincidence ? Maybe.

But maybe more : It's one thing to 'break cover' and talk hypothetically with the authorities (if at all) about geologists and engineers traipsing around investigating random up-country hydro projects, it's a lot more delicate (and very visible) doing detailed investigative work around PN, the infrastructural jewel in C-B's crown.

It looks to me as though CMEC is in the frame for the port development and AD Port's 'masterly inactivity' has been deliberate : the Port Concession contract was as a 'place-holder', whilst other ducks are lined up.

It also suggests that AbuDhabi will have a major role to play in the Consortium, going forward .

IMO, AFAICS, comments welcome.

GLA

Maybe BUR could compromise on a discount, for part (early) settlement but with a 'return to better fortunes' clause that gave a second bite of the cherry if the country's economy improved.

The argument being that it would be THIS settlement that is the starting gun for the country's turn-around...

BUR is incentivised to go for a 'prompt payment' deal because of the capital that it could (a) redeploy into other assets and (b) make a special dividend to shareholders (and management); while removing the 'one trick pony/YPF overhang' would surely prompt a re-rating as investors looked at BUR's other 3 pillars.

AFAICS

Thanks.

From a scan of his posting history, I see what you mean.

ATB

Agreed re 'just continue to hold'.

But you still haven't said who the Earl is ?

Intrigued.....

Cryptic!

Who's the Earl ? Winnifroth styles himself 'sheriff'...

TIA

Hydro progress : one of the AGM Q’s I had for AT.

C-B is publicly - and officially - ‘ on notice’…..

All good AFAICS.

GLA

Seb's latest :

.."t is the first time since the beginning of the YPF trial that a Government shows intention to change the legal strategy. I applaud it.

I understand the responsibility of our leaders to exhaust all legal avenues and not close agreements without first having a final ruling. But this strategy has led us to lose 9 out of 10 trials and pay close to USD 17 billion. Repsol, Holdouts, ICSID, etc.

I do not question the professionalism of the lawyers who represent us and represented us since they have had to defend cases that were (and are) difficult to defend.

I only express the need to save USD 1.2 billion each year in interest and legal costs by defending cases that, 9 out of 10 times, we lose.

Today, significant discounts can be negotiated with judgment beneficiaries. With each passing day, those discounts will be exponentially smaller and, as taxpayers, we will have to pay them as we have already paid.

It is time to close each of these trials..."

Amen to that.

Hi BlueWiley,

Quite.

There's been a discussion elsewhere about which might be the Sovereign wealth fund (SWF) that co-invests with BUR - M East; Norway; Singapore ?

Others have pointed out that BUR's largest shareholder is from Saudi - Mithaq Capital SPC (10.5%) and that there's a reference to Sharia treatment in the relevant sub-fund BUR accounts.

Mithaq is an investment vehicle of the AlRajhi family, founders/principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world. Market cap currently $89.26 billion.

Interestingly (maybe), you'll see from the link below that they're quite open-minded to who they do business with.

hxxps://www.arabnews.com/node/2130566/business-economy

Given the Saudi drive for natural resources - agriculture, hydrocarbons, lithium, water - I'm hopeful there'd be equal creativity in working out some kind of deal between Argentina and BUR....

To coin a phrase 'It'd be rude not to'.

AFAICS

GLA and ATB

Hi shaun86,

Very droll.

In your keenness to make your point, you're overlooking that it was I who initiated the post removal.

;->

Hi Jiving,

Thank you.

The other implication of the Sundance update, IMO, is that if Mbalam-Nabeba concessions are provably illegal, the mines are unlikely to proceed, as exported product would be seizable. Raising finance might also be a problem.

A bit more tenuously, BUR's biggest shareholder would be aware of this.....and share with his colleagues at PIF and higher up in the 'majlis' *

* an Arabic term meaning "sitting room", used to describe various types of special gatherings among common interest groups of administrative, social or religious nature ....

Both arguments strengthen the investment case for ZIOC....and are therefore hardly 'off-piste'.

AFAICS

Hi shaun86,

The posts disappeared because I suggested it.

After various exchanges, in the last my sharing the Saudi /AlRajhi connection, I left matters as

.."This is unedifying and unworthy of both of us.

I've no objection if you wish to report and delete the entire thread..."

I can 'reappear' them over on advfn and leave others to judge, if you like, but I can assure you that it won't support your

point of view.

ATB

The other bits of the pulled thread that I felt were of interest :

- BUR recently won a protracted case against Argentina, also for illegal expropriation of a national asset YPF, an oilco. Award : $ 16 Bn.

- they only tend to invest in cases that they expect to win , in one year only 60 out of 1500 cases considered;

- BUR's biggest investor @ 10.5% shareholding is the AlRajhi family of Saudi Arabia, owners of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world. Market cap currently $89.26 billion.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2130566/business-economy

AlRajhi is involved in financing Essar Group's $ 4.5Bn green steel project in-Kingdom :

https://www.essar.com/saudi-mega-steel-project-eyes-local-global-banks-for-4-5bn-investment/

GLA

Good call. Thank you.