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The puzzling thing for me is that - if I go check on spreadex - they're open to go long or short on ZIOC, but not trading at all on KP2.

In my naivety, I'd thought spreadex would stop opening upbets on ZIOC, because they might have to come good on them...BIGLY. Unless they ran a square position at all times.

So maybe the 'market' is less confident than I am...or knows more than I do? What do the chartists think?

Informed comments/explanations welcome!

ATB

Also missing was the sentence immediately beforehand :

.."The minister announced that the Kingdom’s geological survey program has yielded promising results, allowing for a reevaluation of mineral deposits. .."

So, doubly unfortunate.

;-

Missing from that message :

.."He hinted at a significant announcement at the Future Minerals Forum next month, WHERE A NEW ESTIMATION OF MINERAL DEPOSITS, PREVIOUSLY VALUED AT $ 1.3 TRILLION, WILL BE DISCLOSED."

From 2 years ago:

https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3449261/saudi-arabia-says-has-13-trillion-worth-untapped-mineral-deposits

These are domestic mineral resources, so not ZIOC...or anything else outside the KIngdom.

Unfortunately.

Hi atg,

On the old Motley Fool board, there was a very wise poster called Sir Lurkalot, who was not averse to a little 'walk on the wild side' for his own account (where we used to converse), but was very careful about what he put into Lady Lurkalot's ISA, which always represented a different order of conviction/comfort.

That seems sensible for good marital and other family relationships ;-> !

Just as the advice that you should never go into business with a friend -chances are, either the business will suffer or the friendship will.

But the current asymmetry in ZIOC outlook seemed to warrant a modest, 'pigs in blanket'- sized wager !

O/T, I'm looking at other possible 'rising tide' Congo investments, have dabbled with KP2 in the past and then exited when I felt I had enough Congo eggs in my basket.

What's your take on it now?

Happy to continue chat over there, btw.

ATB

A 'buy', in case not obvious!

;->

Yes, odd. Another (part) system failure ?

I recognise a family member's trade amongst the 3 showing up on AQSA.

GLA

Mbalam-Nabeba isn't even close.

(1) You're looking at the capex, which you'd expect to be higher as they're further from the coast (and, I believe, more difficult terrain)

(2) It would be nice to know what notional / actual value they ascribed to the 'land with outline planning permission' , which is what we have/are.

(3) Not only half (maybe less) of ZIOC volume, but also lower quality - 62.6% Fe (cf ZIOC Stage 1 66% > Stage2 68.5%) with LOTS of impurities (see p.13 of the recent presentation):

- Silica 4.4%, ZIOC 3.5>3.0%

- Alumina 2.6%, ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4%

- Phos 0.09% , ZIOC 0.04%

The only bit about the Cameroon news that was 'useful', IMO, was the list of Chinese companies supposedly involved, including 'our very own' CMEC...

As I say in the AGM post, I think it's at least possible that Saudi's already made its mind up.

NAI, DYOR, IMO etc etc

ATB

I tried to make it to the ZIOC AGM on 19th, but arrived late...and folk were presumably hot-footing it to the airport to get to Riyadh.

Here's the relevant subsequent correspondence :

.."Hi Andrew,

I was sorry not to catch up with you at yesterday's AGM.

As your colleague Holly may have explained, I 'missed the cut' and only arrived at 10:05, as a result of a ½ hour delay on my train down to London, 'person struck by train'. Which I suppose puts everything that follows into perspective.

Had I made it, I'd have liked to hear covered by you and/or your colleagues the following questions :

(1)has the EPC Partner, which I believe is Perth, finished its review? and if so, when will the market be informed ? I ask because of the gap between Marty's appointment as CEO per his linked in and when same was communicated to shareholders.

(2)How developed are the studies for the 'teaser ?' ramp-up to eventual 60 mtpa ?

(3)what consequences, if any, will the recent prominence given to Nguesso's 3 Basins initiative have on Project progress, given heightened environmental sensitivities ?

(4)what developments have there been since last report on related parts of the Project, specifically on (i) the hydro side of things; and (ii) on port development ?

There has been almost no port-related news since AD Ports contract award AFAICS, save for an anti-smuggling initiative by Obambi (as head of the business community).

(5)Speaking of Obambi, what has prompted Afrexim Bank to grant Sapro Mayokoa $94m trade finance facility ? Is that mine not dormant?

(6)Related : what is going on at Mbalam Nabeba and what mitigants are there against something like the Sundance and Equatorial/Midus expropriations happening to Zanaga?

(7)what role, if any, does Binding Solutions have in the Project plans going forward ?

(8)For the team : which is more likely to be first to commercial export production, Simandou or Zanaga?

I appreciate that an open forum such as the AGM was the appropriate venue to reply to at least the 'softer' questions and that you may well not be able to answer on a one-to-one basis. I'd be grateful if ZIOC would consider some means of updating the market on these and other issues.

Many thanks in advance for getting things this far, season's greetings to you and yours and the team! "

AT's reply on 20th @ 14:11 : "I’m sorry that I missed you at the AGM. Sensible questions below and I’d be happy to answer them as best I can.

When would you be free for me to call you tomorrow?"

Despite a couple of follow-ups, neither AT nor Gary Vallerius (it was proposed that he might field the questions) got back to me.

I think that - saying he would get back to me and then (uncharacteristically) not doing so - Andrew was under a lot of pressure; possibly already in Riyadh; the tweet just out; and the team is now in 'radio silence' mode.

It's possible we're already down to the short strokes.

IMO, NAI , DYOR

Seems as though it's not just the white man who speaks with forked tongue ;->

This is what your man was saying barely 10 days ago.

https://www.businessincameroon.com/mining/2112-13576-cameroon-initiates-mbalam-iron-ore-mine-construction-amidst-funding-uncertainty

.."Since August 17, 2022, when the Cameroon Mining Company Sarl (CMC) was awarded the mining permit for the Mbalam iron ore deposit, no information has yet filtered out, either on the financing or on the financial partners of this gigantic mining project......

...a group of Chinese companies have joined the project.

They include China Railway 20 Bureau Group Corporation (CR20G), China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), and China National Chemical Engineering Heavy-Mechanized Corporation Ltd (CNCEHMC), as well as CCC Mining Group Limited. Most of these are construction and infrastructure companies, or mining companies. No financial partners appear on this list......

...Many observers in the Cameroonian mining sector remain puzzled by how a company (CMC), established on March 16, 2022, managed to secure a mining agreement with the State just two years [Ed.: I think that's 'weeks', from context} after its inception (by March 31), followed by the issuance of an operational permit within a mere five months of its establishment. All this on a world-class iron ore deposit.

There is also a lack of transparency surrounding the awarding of this concession, as with all others in the country. In fact, like all the other active mining permits in Cameroon, the CMC mining permit has still not been made public to date, in violation of Article 144 of the 2016 Mining Code (a new one has just been promulgated by the Head of State, ed)...."

You saw the thread re AustSino's recent update on the legal position.

I can't see it taking off, myself.

Somewhere - I can't locate atm - I read something to the effect that they were hoping to start on the railway in August 2024.....how long do you reckon to build a 500Km railway to the coast ? And the guy talks of exporting by year-end?

By the truckload, maybe ?

GLA.

Chinese Horoscope 2024 – Year of the Dragon

.."The Chinese zodiac marks the start of a new cycle with the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, when one animal gives way to another. On February 10, 2024, the Year of the Dragon begins.

The Dragon is a powerful and auspicious creature in Chinese mythology, representing courage, creativity, and innovation. 2024 PROMISES TO BE A YEAR FULL OF POSSIBILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES....."

Even the stars seem to be aligning.

GLA

Chinese Horoscope 2024 – Year of the Dragon

.."The Chinese zodiac marks the start of a new cycle with the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, when one animal gives way to another. On February 10, 2024, the Year of the Dragon begins.

The Dragon is a powerful and auspicious creature in Chinese mythology, representing courage, creativity, and innovation. 2024 PROMISES TO BE A YEAR FULL OF POSSIBILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES....."

Even the stars seem to be aligning.

GLA

This partnership is for nickel and lithium...but hopefully provides a blueprint (or change of scope ?) for ZIOC's iron ore.

'The trend is (hopefully) our friend'.

GL and HNY to all.

We're agreed on something !

;->

ATB

Sigh. That was 15 years ago, the world was a different place ...and in-between there have been quite a few hiccups along the way.

Look at the shenanigans around Simandou and the trajectory of South Africa towards 'failed state' status, to name two big examples...and any number of AIM-quoted mining companies that have failed to deliver on Africa's promise.

Sometimes even bankers learn from experience.

And very timely Little Den's 'chaser' to the Japanese:

.."On November 27, I had an exchange by videoconference with the vice-president of the Japanese Cooperation and Development Agency. We discussed subjects essential to the consolidation of our bilateral relations with Japan. This discussion is a continuation of our previous dialogues, initiated during my visit to Japan, and focuses on strengthening our cooperation, particularly on the economic level.

One of the major points of our meeting was MY proposal to establish an office of the Japanese agency in Brazzaville, modeled on the model of the one operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This initiative is CRUCIAL for us because it aims to FACILITATE AND ACCELERATE THE COMPLETION OF LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS ON OUR SOIL.

We also discussed the importance of QUICKLY finalizing the technical cooperation agreement between our two countries. I INSISTED on the need to sign this agreement BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR, in order to integrate our joint projects into Japan's annual budget which is generally adopted in March."

Not sure what the etiquette-conscious Japanese will make of this, but Little Den's eagerness is palpable.

IMO

Very prescient of Vet 10 - 2 days ago :

.."In terms of stakeholders we know about so far -

Glencore

CMEC

PSEI

AD Ports

RoC Government

Who is next!...."

Japan cosying up to Saudi coincides with Nippon Steel's bid to take over US Steel

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/18/nippon-steel-us-steel-acquisition

which may face US domestic pushback, esp in an election year.

Always good to remind people that you've got a plan B - which you may even pursue if you succeed with plan A.

Which can be read both ways (ref US and ref Saudi) of course.

Great spot, Vet 10!

And Manara Minerals seems to be on a roll atm

https://english.aawsat.com/business/4757026-saudi-arabia-discovers-massive-gold-reserves

GLA

At a guess, client relationships with Elphick / Gem Diamonds and Mick Davies/ Xstrata.

thanks for today's 3 posts, i concur pretty much with all, esp. the 'africa' factor ;-<

i periodically check in on twitter to see if there's anything from zioc, big + little den and a couple of others for 'flavour'.

brazzanews periodically shows clips of intermittent power failure, capital city flooding, main street potholes, unserviceable schools etc ..and the uncensored below-the -line comments make clear the mismanagement, incompetence and venality of c-b's government.

i'm hopeful that a consortium that included gulf swfs, vale, the chinese and -preferably - a western multilateral (world bank, ifc, at least miga insurance cover) will emerge, broad-based and strong enough to 'corral' the local kleptocrats*

* who can be astonishingly bare-faced : i was involved in a project in ****stan (ici - pure terapthalic acid (pta) used in textiles , so you'd think pretty well-connected), where some local politician acquired a 'ransom strip' of land needed to access a key water supply route; and where the local gangsters (with police connivance), would occasionally just throw a rope across the highway and demand ( backed up by ak-47s) a fee to 'permit' your vehicle to pass - octroi it's called, a suitably medieval concept.

ho hum