Member Info for Ephemeral

Bantham I'd welcome a fair value assessment from you pls? You've been proven to be appropriately circumspect and bearish. What would you see as a fair value for THG? And could you lay out some rationale? Conscious you may get some stick for it but I'd really welcome it.

Article states ‘rockhopper declined to comment’ right action on their part in my book.

Rockhopper mentioned alongside RWE on energy litigation : doesn’t mention OM specifically. Can’t seem to send a link

Not sure what MM could say : we are busy executing our strategy? Obviously sentiment is awful. awful. There maybe a gremlin none of us have picked up. Or it will pass when the next scheduled update arrives. 106p does feel well below par. I’m trying to do a break up value calc… help much appreciated.

Note how Clipper Logistics (more back end) is being bought out. There is buy out activity in motion.

I think will be tough. Some good posts on this. Not THG specific but it could kick-off in Ukraine -&- I don’t think THG will comment -&- sentiment for online / £-of-living etc is poor. I’m not sure what THG can do to allay this and -ve SP w/o looking amateur (& we don’t want that). Announcement of a Chair would be good but if THG is genuinely looking to go private itself that is a mute point and if THG is fending off buy-outs that makes it difficult for a Chair to bed in. I’m going to send £10K to my stocks account and watch : if we have a run I’ll buy more. Lastly can anyone do a quick ‘break-up’ value for THG : let’s say you just firesale it and repatriate that to SP. Thank you.

So what the F are we still waiting for before an ‘award’ is rendered?

At hereshopin if PE bid 3-4 publicly is see SP in 5’s for it flushes out a base price and removes much of the basis to short (and we must accept (if not congratulate) those who have shorted and profited). SoftBank in money seat. If I were they and on THG board I’d be adopting the wait and see / focus on execution approach

Thank you hereshopin. Oh to be a fly on the wall at the weekly THG strategy meeting.

I can’t read it either. Looks like it’s beauty focussed. I can understand suppliers being concern with THG discounting but in my book it’s a good thing (a) THG keeping consumers (b) encouraging purchases (c) building a rep for being the right price seller… do suppliers not think Amazon etc will do the same? Really suppliers should ask ingenuity to manage direct sales on their behalf…. Oh jeez there maybe an integrated business model in this … oh jeez the institutions realise on Monday … and start piling in.

Whey ££ an issue for THG, an issue for all providers and consumers : who will still consume. But THG will not sink or swim on s-term whey spot prices it’s just turbulence. Key factors are vertical and cross integration and cross sell // size effect // ingenuity // governance. Feels this is getting bought out as management are too entrepreneurial for LSE or FTSE to accommodate.

I disagree commonsense : I think they will have consciously decided to not comment and probably took advice on this. I see no reason for that rationale to change. Yet. If it’s all over Sunday papers they maybe forced to comment but my read is that they would rather not comment if they can possibly not (else they would have). It is a sensible strategy -&- that doesn’t mean I/we need to like it : but it is for BoD to decide.

I guess market is not taking rumour seriously / discounting it. Me thinks SoftBank are in the box seat here > they could Go/NoGo a buyout with their option by simply exercising it and forcing PE to then buy at that price. I would be extremely upset if this went out below IPO but that’s an emotional and not rational basis… I just feel buyout at IPO is sad : but acceptable all round. I’m ave at about 160 now but way way over exposed. About 25% of life savings in this sitting at 113 on a 160 b/e. No need to exit quickly so hoping I find my patience is available to me.

SP running on sentiment alone. May continue to go South. Reverse on numbers. Numbers due in April. Or reverse on news. We have no indication when news will arrive. Frankly news unlikely to send shares further South. So meaning when news arrives likely to offer a bounce. Just need to fast forward six months. What I haven’t factored into the ££ is my wasted time being (a) concerned and (b) checking SP through the day : why can’t I just leave it in the drawer for a few months… argh..

1388 to 217 in 8 months. Do they explain why they perhaps got it wrong (in their eyes) : I can’t get hold of their notes

Well said lejjb : no one can price ingenuity with confidence. But softbank - did convince themselves of a 5.96 for a piece of THG. A good Chair / governance would really help with communication of value in this regard

And whilst many (inc market) believed that to be OTT. News, performance, market conditions since do not warrant a drop to 124 (my view). Patience. I don’t hide however that id feel a lot better if my position was in the blue.

Thanks for all the helpful posts. Per some my intention is also to sell on award (whatever it maybe). I think IF and it’s a massive IF award is +ve and arrives before 31-Mar-22 I may wait to see outcome of Navitas deal. But for all here - closure, a simple closure on OM is sought : then we can move on >> either positively or by regrouping. I would find it pathetic if OM award is not rendered by 31-Mar-22 … how long can you drag it out?

At £50m have SP at c.20p
At £100m c.30p

Pls could someone remind me what OM award does to SP. If at £50m post expenses and £100m. Clearly it’s the liquidity (subject to actually getting hands on award) subject to +ve award that is of import.