Member Info for Ephemeral

At asidall : I think market is being run by wider sentiment. These results are good (not outstanding) but the results do confirm -to me- that the SP is undervalued : we are at mid-pandemic SP levels and business is doing much better with prudent hedging in place. I was hoping for a rise (so I’d feel better about holdings) but I think it might be a much longer hold to 2024 now.

That is what I expected but I was didn’t expect the following : in the RNS > Wagamama and Leisure sales were adversely impacted by heatwaves in July and August (whilst our Pubs sales benefitted from the heatwaves)

Not sure what to make of it.
Sounds good -not- great.
Pleased Management are managing well (doing there job). Hedging of energy costs is a plus.
Mmmn

How does RKH get Falklands onto gov agenda : would they employ a lobbyist? If so how do they even get air time amongst those with bigger wallets? F O&G seems strategic and politically opportune -yet- no one in MSM has mentioned it.

Hope so too. Expect it might go missing in the fog that is announcements on energy etc // though these may super charge a re-rate too. Who knows? (This time tomorrow does).

I remember when going over 220 was celebrated and that was Dec-21 : how is it worth 25% of the value then? Jokes

Well, day-to-day, is not faring well. Results next Thursday : even if good I'm not sure they'll have currency.

At VCB2 my view is RTN will do better than market expectations but sentiment is bearish so won’t read across to uplift in SP. I think it’s well placed to weather storm : -&- for some going to Waga is an affordable treat (I appreciate that isn’t true for all). What I mean to say is it’s not a blow out expense so I think it will still have custom

With all the pain abounding and more to come, this, this is the test of THG : can it by efficiency, scale and with an A-Z service offer hold out in the hard rain as others fall -&- at the same time be the out-sourcer of choice. Exec should be concerned; SP is not healthy -but- (and no with more M&A) they should also be looking for the opportunities all this presents -&- articulating how they will execute to market. This is what I expect in the update.

Is it read-across (however tenuous) from revolution?

In what will be tough times : recall this from Annual Report :
- c.95% of electricity and gas volume hedged for 2022
– c.75% of electricity and gas volume hedged for 2023
and 2024

Sorry this was supposed to be on Rtn : silly me

In what will be tough times : recall this from Annual Report :
- c.95% of electricity and gas volume hedged for 2022
– c.75% of electricity and gas volume hedged for 2023
and 2024

I’m struggling to fathom why govt has not made a b-line to online Falkland O&G in current crisis. Some concern over environmental impact, possibly -but- surely it’s a transitional and available fix that offers a level of independence and £-insulation in next 3-10yrs.
Where is the strategic discussion on this?

Subject to recovering the award : it now feels like RKH is a hold. Cash to enable a start. Possible support from government given strategic significance. Partner that delivers. Unlikely there will be a need for further dilution.

Trading update will be interesting : expect they've done well - but costs up and concern over future revenue (market will likely panic a bit -or- have already built that in). Looks like management have hedged well on energy and interest rates and have enough of a buffer to see out a recession. My view is wagamama will still be seen as a treat and those who visit aren't in deep deep financial trouble : so it'll do okay... but one will have to ride it out.

Surely now is the time to provide support to O&G in the Falklands (for manifold reasons). It is a strategic asset that could be utilised to smooth several transitions. I'm surprised its not been pushed in mainstream media (or on this board for that matter). Hoping RKH Exec are doing such : clearly good for RKH but potentially also for many more.

Hoping the Executive are making it plainly clear to both main parties the security benefits of supporting O&G in the Falklands : it both provides for energy security in a transition to cleaner tech (that may take an age) -&- independence of supply and to an extent price. Further one never knows where a base is needed and a heavily fortified bar is easier to defend in PR terms if it has assets that warrant that defence. Strategically Sea Lion offers much to UK : obvs it also benefits LTSH’s.

230. ish around Xmas. 70p now. How much has objectively changed for such a discount in SP. Some market sentiment (concern over pending recession); some concern over SB non-option; what else? Was 230p already massively out (and a joke) or is 70p a panic price. I don’t feel Board / Exec have performed that badly since Dec-21 (albeit they could have been more communicative). What, please, do we feel is fair value…. I’m seeing c 300p given Xmas price point and recent push backs on take-out offers

This was on the cards (though I had hoped for an amended deal). Surprised it's further depressed the SP. Being brutally realistic the Board have not shared a +VE update for months. The macro conditions aren't great. There isn't an obvious catalyst for a rise in SP (it won't be wider sentiment). September update if +VE will likely move the dial a bit -but- SP would benefit from a series of updates : albeit Board under no obligation to offer such.