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Pressing this a little : given limited ability to create positive FCF where do we see fair value for THG? I don’t think market really knows (hence SP). I’m around 120p ave (eek). What would be necessary for SP to rtn to IPO? Presumably its all ingenuity. Relieve it from beauty and nutrition to make value of those BU’s clearer -or- ingenuity picks up significant 3rd party fees : or SP isn’t returning to IPO unless a BO war starts

Thank you at Okehurst. All the more reason to spin out beauty and nutrition. Or find a huge slug of external work for ingenuity; maybe QIA can act on later.

I think he makes a good point. Price protection earlier in the year was questionable. Separately, customers get used to frequent discounts and so in the end devalue the brand : a brand that doesn’t need to discount holds value. What I’m unclear of is if this is simply necessary now from a customer relationship

I think Q4 trading might not be so great. But all the management work on paying down debt, hedging energy, buying interest caps will make a meaningful difference.

At Craig, was it busy?

I agree Allan has put money on the table : there is a level of conviction in that. Guess we wait for a Jan trading update. My concern is spare capacity that carries cost and still too many exceptional items. Separately, Movementum looks interesting : higher end pitch than Myprotein.

RTN at 23p.
1st lockdown just begun.
I find it crazy it is now at 28p (having touch 140p since).
Is it just out of ‘fashion’ or is there a serious issue at hand : from my analysis it’s good to Q4-24/Q1-25 with hedging etc. Is the market view that demand will completely evaporate leading to collapse - if so at the very least can there be some read-across to the housing market that has done most - no good - for too long

Hope your right : would put me back above water

I think on all of this we don’t have good visibility on recent drop in input costs (whey) and stickiness of beauty spend in a recession. Guess we will get an update in Jan on Q4 sales : I think these might be below mark but that margins will be higher than expected : who knows and even less so what mkt reaction will be

I agree Teddy : but it is when and if the pivot comes… it could well be a year / 18 months. Provided THG can sit it out (I think they can) then well set for upturn. What I would like some visibility on is pending rent renewals and ability for THG to negotiate those costs down (and/or lock them in).

I think it will be that long (hope not) but x3 in 18 months : I would not complain. If there’s a sudden dip I’ll put some more in : else trying not to look daily (need to get better at this)

It’s HMSO debt and maturity that concerns me // can it sell assets quickly enough in not a great market whilst it’s own NAV drops? I should have sold at 40p

Going to be a slog before value reflected in SP. We’re sitting a lock-down levels - jokes.

Suspect trading will be slightly sub-par (not massively … on limited primary research) the Q will be whether this couples with the energy and interest hedges plus rent renegotiations create a profit margin… who knows … I think it will be wobbly for 18 months but it maybe a lot of the competition falls by the wayside and/or and these levels a buyout is on the cards…

Oh look I’m very keen for a rise… have a lot in here (and bought a chunk last Christmas at ~225ish - have averaged down a bit). It’s more that SP has a complete life of its own…. and my view is it’s not really related to how the business is performing… I guess even the markets don’t fully understand THG (and it’s the job of Exec and Board to ensure they do)… so yep >> very keen for +£1 (at +£4 and I might get on the housing ladder).

How are Wagas faring?
Camden busy : but staff a bit so-so on welcome - kinda walking around w/o seating customers when space exists. Busy / empty elsewhere?

£1 by next w/e requires a +25% uplift from Friday close : feels fanciful. What would drive such a rapid re-rate. Stakebuilding? I don’t really buy all this shorts closing in a panic business.

…. and possibly fanciful. (I’m still underwater but a lot less so… ).

Oh it’s a bit ramper-ry but do we ever think we’ll get up to IPO levels again? Guessing that’s 2024 space with strong tail winds and positive cash flow.

I don’t think II shorts will be in deep water (as SP has fallen a lot over year) but agree THG has positive momentum. Hopefully THG updates can feed into this.