Member Info for Ephemeral

… on fund raising : do any on this board have a working theory as to when funds might run out? One would think fund raising starts about 3 months prior to that? At Latic you forget OM but absolutely no one knows when (if ever) a judgment will be made (and that’s not cash in bank either).

Thank you for your line of enquiry Musclehead : got me thinking. I feel a heavyweight chair would instinctively be wary of possible MM pitfalls (which would help MM grow) and need to communicate better with markets. Much here - I think - is (a) comms and (b) sentiment that’ll clear. Heavyweight Chair : quickly would be great, perhaps an ex ARM Holdings chair or similar who understands need to comm value to market.

may I encourage we steer clear from ‘ramping’ & ‘deramping’ w/o context pls. My reflection: bad wk for THG in a storm for all in a sea of time. My action : extend investment time horizon to Q3’23. Learning to carry forward : I was greedy / fool hardy to expect ‘lift-off’ and must keep some on the side. Next time I will cut my investment to 75% of what I want to commit and hold 25% to buy-in if I got 1st call wrong. We move on. Wishing all well for week ahead

Well said Cantona : well said. And I would add until those issues unravel (that a good Chair would steward) it will be hard to easily see the underlying value. Not knowing / understanding is a RISK. And a lot of RISK is priced into the SP. Chair is a big +VE move that would enhance MM and all. Hoping its soon and a heavyweight.

Hi Ste. Trying to look at this board sparingly. Always welcome your comments but disagree a little with this. I didn’t think these results warranted a c.25% slip in SP nor can I think it fair the Board did. What is right is that a good Chair would ensure there is a back-up plan or another card to play quite quickly and my hope is one is in place soon so we don’t continue to be choppy when it could be a little smoother. Hoping one is in soon, by 31 Mar certainly

Thank you Anacott : I agree Chairman would have steadied ship and countered unnecessary exuberance and look forward to said appointment. I don’t buy the vendetta shorting : think (maybe wrong) that shorters are too smart to be emotionally driven but accept it may be at work. Separately you mention it’s a long-term play : please could you share your investment horizon? Mine is short-ish : Q2/Q3-’23. But would like to be in +ve territory (+£2) much much sooner (and I know it’s silly but emotionally just feel better when that’s the case).

superbigmac : preference for objectivity over positive energy. Objectively:
1/ I am unclear as to why Q4 results + forward guidance have led to a circa 25% drop in SP from a circa 60% drop in Oct.
2/ There is no consensus on how to value Ingenuity
3/ Market is unconvinced with Governance arrangements and broad Board / Exec skills
4/ How much will the £1B in investment yield in operational efficiencies
5/ Why is THG Beauty not values on 'cosmetic multiples?
6/ How much of the SP drop is momentum led?
7/ Almost everyday more buys than sells in no. of shares traded and value : odd for such a slide.
8/ What is a sensible 'take-out' £ and why? Who would take-out?
9/ If A.N.Other retailer presented these results would it have had a +20% SP fall? If not why not?
How do we make sense of all the above?
What leading indicators of +VE and -VE performance are we to screen for?

Mac38 what is your ‘notion’ // working theory // sense of what you are reading into pls.

@ ryanf : yes I’ve - and am responsible for - taking a larger position than I would want (overconfident) and am underwater. Req. 30% rise to be even. The Q I pose myself : would I buy now at this price? Yes as a ‘speculative’. Meaning I would but at a lower quantum than I hold. Risk here that we get into and service a collective hysteria. Is it bad : yes (from Oct’21) has performance warranted that : no. Poor comms + sliding sentiment. That can change. This will be a good learning for me in applying patience. It’s sentiment now until next update.

It’s been a difficult day. Pleased I did not allow it to consume me. And self-reflection helpful. I am over-invested (personally) not at risk of causing immediate issue but hold more than I should : I bought at 210 / 228 recently (quite a bit at 180 a while back) and held some from 600. Ave : 205. I bought to ave down and convinced it is oversold. Market says otherwise. Market is efficient. I’ve held. Being brutal I think 2022 will be choppy as sentiment to THG is awful and deep. I do think more and more younger people will be more beauty and health conscious : and our objectification / comparison hungry social media society compounds this. So market leans to THG-like offerings. And THG have market share (at least £2B of it) this will grow. So I’m concerned by drop but not panicked. I’m more concerned that I allowed myself to buy a little more to ave down than I should and this is an important reminder for me to be a little more cautious. That said with 7% inflation it can’t be in cash.

It’s a closed period before results for MM to buy. Not that he would : already massively invested £ + rep. It would be a form of tokenism. SoftBank, however, would be fab.

@markbellUK : how can one get a good sense of just how much stock is out on loan? I hear / see lots of different statements (sorry if this is a naive Q. I don’t short as a bit wary of it so not too familiar with it).

Chair + SoftBank together worth c.200p if market sentiment logic following Capital Markets day is to be taken as grounded. Bring on a Chair. Also reflecting : I’m disappointed in SP : but result were not bad // not bad and for them to have pushed SP to all time low seems off-ish. Sentiment : it’s a killer

thanks lejjb : patience as they say patience (I'm not fab at practicing it tho : nor is society by the way).

Results are -broadly- inline with consensus expectations (I thought THG would outperform) but OK - they are good results. I just can't make sense of the SP. Is the discount entirely governance and capital markets day sensitive? That is one way of framing it - but - it seems very very steep. I've not done too well vs expectations here. In, in a big way at 195 av. Will be holding : I must say it is all a bit odd -or- I've completely misread this.

Actual 2178 vs Consensus (Jan ‘22) 2197. 99% alignment. So I’d say met mkt expectations. Think this means marked rise in SP (as felt bad news was priced in). Mkt Cap ~ ‘21 Revenues : nuts !

Be boring: THG be boring for a while

Hoping for in line with mkt or marginally more AND a Chair

Yes Mando, if there is a ‘buy’ declaration by MM its ‘on table’ face down to market and that is the sentiment I want to see in a CEO : balanced by a Chair who’s more ‘statesmanlike’ for want of a better word. C.37hrs and we’ll all be wiser.

Thx proactive and Ste. That would make much more sense : to the extent I’m slightly embarrassed for not having considered it. On the assumption it is the case much of the SP fall is sentiment (not fundamentals : tho THG could (and I hope will) do a better job in communicating these). My hope, therefore, is sentiment will turn quickly. Agree with posts today that it’s a crazy low SP : which is why I’ve been wracking my brain for : what have it missed? Oh well we’ll all know more in a few days and it arrives after a full moon to enjoy.