Member Info for EmeraldCarrots

Holmes700r.
It is based on real cases. People keep looking to South Africa for good news.
Their population's average is only 27. In UK it is 40. That is huge difference.
They had a massive real wave of Delta that killed many...... so many have lots's of anti bodies.
Our Delta wave was months back so out anti body level is far lower.
I think I'll believe the Royal College of London on this one.
Likley the sp here will go back to £1.26, or lower IMHO, and by close of play today.
Buy only if you want to take a msssive risk if you ask me.
All IMHO.

Holmes700r.
It is based on real cases. People keep looking to South Africa for good news.
Their population's average ave is only 27. In UK it is 40.
They have a massive real wave of Delta that killed many...... so many have lots's of anti bodies.
I think I'll believe the Royal College of London on this one.
Likley the sp here will go back to £1.26, or lower IMHO, and by close of play today.
All IMHO.

No less severe that Delta, far more infectious.
Market having the old "dead cat bounce" I fear.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

No less severe that Delta, far more infectious.
Market having the old "dead cat bounce" I fear.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

No less severe that Delta, far more infectious.
Market having the old "dead cat bounce" I fear.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

No less severe that Delta, far more infectious.
Market having the old "dead cat bounce" I fear.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

No less severe that Delta, far more infectious.
Market having the old "dead cat bounce" I fear.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

Whitehat.
I disagree. The compensation, assuming it arrives, works out at £1.52 per share.
Half that is 76p per share and I can't see the market building the other 76p in already as it works 90% on fact, not "should get". We will see.
All IMHO.

My rough calculations are simply adding half the compensation India say they are going to pay us to the existing sp. Knowing the market IMHO there is no way half the compensation is already in the sp. If it is I would be astonished.
$1 billion American dollars = £756,638,600.00.
£756,638,600.00 divided by 2 is £378,319,300.
£378,319,300 / shares in issue (498,188, 093) = 76p
£1.81 plus 76p = £2.57p.

In conclusion I believe, assuming the Indian Government pay the $1 billion, the sp for Cairn should rocket up to past £2.50.

All in my honest opinion of course. Do your own research and calculations!!

The question is how much of the expected $1 billion compensation has the market already built in to the sp?
Looking at the chart Cairn won the International arbitration award against the Indian Government and confirmed to the market on 23/12/2020. Just before that the sp was around £1.60. Hmm but there was then a share consolidation. This is getting tricky ........... anyone?
Clearly the current £1.81 share price will not include receiving £756,638,600.00 from the Indian Government but likely it will include some. But how much??? £3.33 less £1.81 is £1.52 difference. I imagine the current sp won't include half the money, surely? So maybe we are safe to add £1.52 / 2 = 76p??? £1.81 plus 76p = £2.57p.
Anyone else want a go?
All IMHO.

498,188,093 x £1.8125 = £902,965,918 market cap.
$1 billion American dollars = £756,638,600.00.
£902,965,918 plus £756,638,600 = £1,659,604,518.
£1,659,604,518 / 498,188,093 = £3.33p a share.
However how much is built in already?
All IMHO.

Thunder2040.
I totally agree.
If they don't pay it would be utter madness IMHO.
All IMHO.

GrumpusLOL.
It's pretty straight forward.
The Indian Government have abolished the retrospective tax law that was deemed illegal under international law.
They have said they will compensate Cairn, Vodafone etc.. provided the Companies drop the legal action.
So they pay and all is well.
They don't then India's credit rating will be screwed and India will find it difficult if not impossible to borrow money in the International markets. As in a total disaster.
I think they will do what they said and pay.
That is why I bought some more Cairn shares today.
All IMHO.

Plenty of cash in the bank by the looks. I read today about the Worlds biggest cruise ship having some covid:-
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/cruise-ship-royal-caribbean-covid/index.html
To me this is simply how things will be in the future as we learn to live with Covid.
6,000 on board, 48 cases, all mild or no symptoms.
Strange how it got on board considering 95% were double jabbed and I think all passsengers had to show a negative test before being allowed on board. Good thing is with 95% double jabbed (only ones not being children I believe) the chances of anyone getting severely ill (any 1 person out of the 6,000) is very very slim indeed I understand. Important to know in the UK 9 out of 10 of people in hospital with severe illness have not been jabbed. IMHO people who do not have a very good reason not to have the vaccine are extremely selfish and are complete fools. Omicron is likely to weed them out unfortunatels as it is thought to be about as contageous as measles, the most contageous virus known to man.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
All IMHO.

.

said it would pay the $1 billion compensation for the retrospective tax bill they now scrapped. The sp should go North of £2.50 assuming they pay.
The current dip seems to be a good buying opportunity!
All IMHO.

Jtan.
110p makes sense.
We willl see.

Theosus.
Yes I already look every udate which are usually about 4pm.
The in hospital figure is 7,611 at the moment, surely the most important.
Since 4th December the in hospital figure has risen but not a lot............ yet.
In early November it was over 9,000. It would be easy to take this as all is well (excuse the pun!).
However we have not had Omicron long enough for hospital cases to really start to happen (assuming they do).
LBC reporting a third of London hospital staff might be off work by xmass!! Hope this is incorrect!
"Figures suggesting that one in three NHS staff in London could be off work by New Year's Eve have been branded "catastrophic" by a nursing leader."
https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/coronavirus/frontline-staff-shortages-london-omicron/

one would think the sp here would be affected?

Theaky.
OK!!