Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
Forgot to add, I think a licensing deal is far more likely due to the branched / sequential nature of all the revenue extensions from discrete viral segments etc that makes estimation of a cash price point estimate very difficult to determine (as cash on day 1 of a T/O) and that fact limits the price any BP would shell out upfront day 1. So in fact the best value optimisation for shareholders would be a stepwise licensing deal or one complete one with good royalties on sales itrespective of where tevenues are generated. Either way our value should be well above £ 2.25ps.
With respect guys this baby is worth far more than £2.25 with all the latest newsflows that hasn't as yet crystallised in the stock price..yet! so don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. We now know this blooody thing works and has a fantastic side effect profile. It's a bit like a cannabioid drug in fact. Negative adverse events if I recall the data. The only thing holding us back( slightly ) is the drug price tag but the weight of evidence across multiple viral types will overwhelm the resistance that exists then the wall of money will flow so to speak as a JV or TO. That's my opinion so we wait for the end game to be unravelled during early 2023....but don't sell 100% of your holding to make 10% to 50% return is my guidance but you are welcome to your own strategy. It's your dosh.
It's because it's preclinical. V early stage so may never crystallise further payments from AZ or indeed those small royalty payments as probability of launch guess of 5%. SNG's upfront payment with a similar but later stage deal will be say 15 to 25% of the value of the asset licensed. So maybe we would get GBP150m+..and double digit royalty... however we wait for that (still)
Don't forget this is a massively (already) invested R&D business with significantly protected IP, great long term blue chip branded client contracts and it's not all about short term PE generation in the valuation. It's part of the story but if a large new client comes on stream or new application gets derisked or revenues above expectation then that will drive near term stock price alot since presently the stock price is only say c.25% of original cost of investment. Cheap as chips. It will spring back lively rest assured into or before early 2023. You saw what happened during the uplift to 15p in no time, albeit bit early ....2023 though??
Because this stock is thinly traded I'm guessing 95% of us lot believe the SP will be moving accretively over the next 6 months with what we know today. Anyone out there believe the SP will lower than today? If nil response we probably have a thin cap issue at play here! Quite high certainty of that - mind the valueation gap. Or in this case invest on that SP value asymmetry. Its real to me but await wide opinion
@DrEricDing on Twitter. Sorry can't seem to share link. Kids are not naturally immune and probably bacterial exaccerbations as catalyst and/ or concomitant infection with other viruses. 10k admissions growing to c 20k in 1 year. Same picture. USA.
Just been refecting on all the recent various clinical study efficacy signals. My theory is that it's quite late in the runaway viral replication severity stage when patients enter into hospitalisation. By this time there is quite serious lung tissue damage and massive cellular destruction . There is also a large runaway viral spread into other tissues of the body that generates and drives this biochemically diverse long covid issue. So I'm joining the dots- I think that treatment by SNG001 as per SPRINTER is almost too late to show a very marked (optimal) long covid reduction effect even though we generated say a 40% average reduction in disease symptoms as per Synairgen mgt. ACTIV 2 on the other hand in earlier stages of viral attack and disease ingress shows an 87% reduction on progression to hospitalisation. Eg SNG001 simply reduces viral runaway replication early enough in the cycle of runaway disease progression. Key hypothesis here is that SNG001's BEST or optimal LC outcome treatment timing is probably at this early stage before runaway replication occurs ( before patients get severe enough to present to hospitalisation). So by correlation if all suffers of COVID 19 been given SNG001 early enough then in the whole patient pool long covid would likely be reduced by 86% roughly all other things held constant as per ACTIV2 result (ACTIV 2 Verified by our own home trial results earlier and in aggregate statistically significant effect). Now there is a thought I hope big pharma is mulling over right now a therapy that provides 86% reduced LC societal impact for any futuresevere murant covid strain . Thats got to worth quite a few bio bucks to SNG. PS. I won't be selling shares tomorrow on a minor share price rise on this little theory as I'm holding mine for the end game outcome as a little "SNG zealot" IF I'm right little Andy maybe buying some shares tomorrow when he reads this..... Good luck Andy. And all LTHs.
Thanks Thorndon, really great spot. Forgive the pun : ITX really are 'sowing the seeds' for diversified growth. Awaiting company comment on the possible size of this new global channel to market..
Exactly AJ. We need a dual track approach here to seriously derisk our tech. Platform. STRIVE plodder adventure plus pharma driven lucrative (possibly broader than covid) licensing deal with meaty upfront and near term milestones by indication or patient application BUT IMPORTANTLY massive shareholder confidence kicker and Big Pharma commercial endorsement would be a game changer from my view. The shareholder value pie goes from a Tesco poor meat pie for one lonely adult to an M&S family size premium fillet steak option. then we get 30-50% of that much bigger pie and we have cash in bank on day 1.
One company must eventually want to build a franchise portfolio of different MOA treatments to improve the single asset risk exposure to any one innovation. Shionogi may want to make an offer or do a deal sooner rather or later or they may miss the boat.
SNG001 should definitely be placed on here as it states on the clinical trial tin "for viral emergencies"!
That's exactly our sweet spot in my view...if they don't put us on here soon they are bl##dy crazy! Innate immune augmentation for any emerging variant irrespective of evolutionary mutation immune avoidance. We sit and wait.
On the scout for next infectious disease thx.
Tonya Villafana
Vice President, Global Franchise Head, Infection
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Combining my academic training in immunology and public health experience, I am responsible for leading cross-functional global product development teams for vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. This includes, but is not limited to, AZD1222 (ChAdOx1-S vaccine for SARS-CoV-2) and MEDI8897 (nirsevimab for respiratory syncytial virus).
As the Global Franchise Lead for Infectious Diseases and a Global Product Lead, I work within BioPharmaceuticals R&D to explore potential new vaccines and drugs to prevent or to treat infectious diseases in the most vulnerable populations globally. I collaborate closely with a number of important external stakeholders at a global level, including public health organisations, regulatory authorities, and government representatives and healthcare policymakers on key development milestones from early development to launch of product.
During my career, I have served on several scientific committees and advisory boards including the Malaria Clinical Trials Alliance, International Society for Vaccines and the NIH Integrated Preclinical/Clinical AIDS Vaccine Development Program. I have worked closely on global health initiatives with the World Bank, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, PAHO, WHO, IFPMA, and the UK Development Agency for International Development. I have been fortunate to work in countries around the world, both in high income and low income settings which enables me to have significant perspective on how best to address the needs of different populations.
I received a PhD in immunology from Weill Cornell University Graduate School of Medical Sciences and an MPH from Harvard School of Public Health.
Look we all agree Synairgen are now joining the dots and pressing forward with more development/commercial options and avenues on all severe respiratory diseases so in that sense we are refining our go to market strategy for sure but a pivotal ingredient must be covid and all its longer term health and economic implications
It's because they kind of know we have a knock out therapeutic in the event of a seriously severe mutant variant coming down the genetic pipeline so to speak that will side-step many other treatment modalities and vaccine conformations and combinations. So any forward thinking Government would be stupid to want to go back to lock downs and further massivw economic disruption. When will they learn...long term prevention decisions are much superior to short term reactive ones with viral pathogens. Get real.
We are only in real trouble Doc should any said new variant strain buck the trend and up its game in terms of severity characteristics. We will see that eventually due to natural darwin genetic selection / variation or random event permutations but alas our UK Government will never stockpile SNG001 in the (high) chance of that outcome in practice. KB was a scientific/VC pawn in the Government Covid response game (with blinkers on in fact limited to vaccine response ONLY). Books mean nothing really other than self promotion in this case limited by Government ineptitude.