Hi Chilting. Good spot old boy (or old ??). Excellent news regarding Croda. They are definitely keeping an eye ON ITX. Potential for more ITX supply in Croda in 2021 and beyond....I know they had some commercial awareness building with ITX early Spring this year so alls well here...growth and value indicator.
By the way whats keeping me on the investor hold/growth trajectory to well above £750m Market Cap is fourfold;
1. Efficacy looks fantastic best in class antiviral
2. Safety looks fantastic well known natural molecule and we know intimately the mode of action in the inhaled form direct to lung formulation
3. Supply side ramping up and company confidence
4. Covid will last until 2022, thereafter other potential virus cash flow streams will definitely kick in whether COPD or other ones (direct or out licensing or M&A/PARTNERSHIPS.
I agree. I did this in my 30s too with company stock options because another employee said look at the share price at the moment....it means 20k cash....grab it and I did. Not sure the are thinking medium term likely developments and opportunities for SNG
I'm guessing if you can acquire your share options at 1p or 2 p, eventually you may settle on a sale at this good uplift price level as its all pretty much tax free cash now and these folks may be needing a new car or new kitchen upgrade..but possibly missing another jump up as per broker expectations? Certainly I'm not selling until we get further into commercialisation since Sng at this point appears to have an excellent medium term outlook and external partner interest for either licensing or M&A deals or co-therapeutic JVs.
I agree TOTALLY and think that will be the case in coming days or weeks.
Why? If his does NOT happen then given the overwhelming safety data of this well known molecule known for many years combined with deep mode of action knowledge and scientific papers on how covid inhibits the immune response through interferon inhibition, then can you imagine the massive criticism of the global regulators and governments that will take place in early 2021 once the wider use yields the same drug response rates as per the phase II. ..wait and watch..very exciting.
Think about this...positives massively out weigh possible hypothetical dilution issue; SO price if falls in the very short term will rise v quickly thereafter.....
Positives:. we now have a very clear route to many global markets and cash to implement and the market is huge for 2021 given world's population even with other therapeutics and vaccines, even without COPD and other viral infection markets.
Negatives; if the true market value of the shares is 20% higher than 175p then shareholders have potentially lost out on ONLY 80m GBPx 20% = 16M. GBP. which is peanuts compared to a market value of SNG STOCK of say at least 250m. MKT CAP!!
Correct the syringe is filled aseptically then this is used as the primary source of the liquid drug for the nebulizer!!! Each patient uses this source of drug in the syringe for a period of about a week. Its certainly NOT injected into your veins!!!!!!
I forecasted 3p by year end when it was below 1.5p quite a few months back, but think 4p is my updated new years day target. The significant Unilever green initiative will shame many more global chemicals and fmcg companies into action during 2021 so ITX is just in the right place at last at the right time folks. :-)
There is very minimal downside in ITX at this tiny price IMHO. Once branded formulations get approved and accepted, they are difficult to dislodge. Our BIG partners do all the hard marketing and we just enjoy the uptick over time. Simples!...some of our downstream products are in early adoption phases too. Eg dishwasher tabs so should provide excellent revenue growth for ITX in the short to medium term (to 2024) as our partners attain market share in a greener world. ;-)
I agree. The global market is huge for at least the next year against present infection. Room for many treatments. If you do a sum of the parts valuation for 1. Covid. Plus 2. Emerging covid mutant strains possibly evading other focused therapies. 3. COPD use. 4. Other respiratory viral infections market. 5. Use for protection whilst suffering bacterial lung infections my simple maths gets me to at least 350m GBP after loss of 50% licensing economic value.
Given the quality / diversity of the customer base (not just detergents by the way) together with the early stage high growth potential, ITX is still very cheap at c£10m market cap IMO. Remember approx £60m has been invested in the market and in R&D at least to date I believe and the original investment rationale is now delivering nicely with a covid tailwind blowing us along. Its the intrinsic value of that original investment that is my primarily investment yardstick here and that is where the market cap is trending in the medium term. Sit back and enjoy everyone.
Question: Does anyone want to avoid the risk of death if they start to decline with a Covid/Flu like illness (Answer : Yes/No)? How much would you pay to survive? Sell your house ? Liquidate your ISA? Raid your building soc. accts? Sell your second car? (the answer is yes to possibly all of the above!)....so whats coming?
The market demand pull characteristics from this little emerging product is amazing. BTW thank you day trader sellers I've just topped up at around 160p! End of Oct month there will be much more market frenzy on this than you can imagine, even without full emergency approval. Lots of news on this front via simple demand dynamics now its in the hands of clinicians and the Politicians will not be able to control it soon enough or will want to help it along to support their own greedy political ambitions.
There are a complex set of issues here. 1. MHRA and other Reg. Bodies need time to review the second set of COPD safety data recently released ; 2. Governments are really scared to re- publicise the great effectiveness of this intervention to the general public too early in case implementation / commercialisation goes tits up in the worst case scenario eg the product can't be made available to all that need it the most. Big potential egg on face again for the Government after diagnostics disasters and early counter covid criticism about herd immunity. Hence the News Blackout and officials not publicly naming SNG0001 overtly. 3. There will be a number of distribution / licensing or buyout deals already on the table Im sure and the SNG Board would want to make sure THEY have the right deal in place ahead of or in alignment with approvals. 4. I think most educated regulators and scientists know this is very safe and very efficacious.....so soon it will all be clear so sorry for people selling prematurely before the news comes to planet earth.
I did send an email enquiry a few weeks ago to ask what the plans are for a phase III trial for MGB Biopharma where Chris is also a Director - no response could mean that they are out-licensing it for a big pharma to deal with??
If Novartis are interested I guess that they could help facilitate an RTO transaction between another entity or collection of some other entities and MTFB (eg . sign a licensing deal or purchase of the asset with MTFB or agree to one with the Newco. subject to its formation) or even buy the RTO Newco outright if it has some other interesting elements to it. Just a thought...fingers crossed.