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I think if Citadel mis understood the success probability and adopted 70% as per brokers they may be taking a bet on failure and could seriously pay big time if this flies with 90% + likelihood. my view is the POS is north of 90% now something ready to either see them jump back in quickly or will very probably be incinerated with a stonking loss.

were they buys or sells?

more smoke? this is quite a small company so could well be linked to our manufacturing scale up planning

More broadly looking at the qualitative AND quantitative clinical evidence (maths/stats) at a high-level in the round, SNG001 must have a VERY high probability of being launched successfully at this point in time given the pandemic / endemic situation (say, at least 90%). Also the market cap of only £400m very much seems to imply c.90% chance of failure. In my mind the two facts do not align therefore I still have a very strong view of significant upside to the SP, given where we are today. Very exciting to watch every day here.

:-) I think they mean its 50% undervalued as at 11 Jan 22 but maybe they are right in the extreme of a worse new mutational virus coming along later in 2022 killing at a 30% rate like MERS with high contagion risk?

18 Jan for me

Fantastic thread right there. Well done Mr Crumpet for sharing, I'm now following this guy on Twitter from the Lond School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Spot (but concerning) comments Mr Crumpet - mutations are RANDOM events effecting efficacy of these little bugg**s and are very worrying to mankind given the new and huge ingress of this emerging Covid virus (at critical mass of infections in our population needed to perpetuate themselves in a pool c. 8Bn population of humans).

Great find this Z score subject. Doesn't this possibly reinforce significantly the prior phase II read out (n=100), as some were claiming at the time that the phase II was just a "lucky shot (by chance encounter) in the dark" as a random event. But my point at the time was that n=100 does pass the threshold of statistical significance (SS) based on my understanding of maths and SS thresholds in excess of a threshold sample of around n=30 observations (in fact 3x fold larger in our phase II sample the n= 100 people). Hence why I bought my initial tranche of shares and why I always have been banging on that the success probability of SPRINTER phase III is above 90% not only 70% (at least from the perspective of replicating the results).

Hi Andy - de-risking is the key I agree as you correctly point out, but your rationale given below is completely wrong and totally misleading:
......." To recalibrate before readout. On the condition that SPRINTER is positive, then SNG will fly. So they need to sell some shares now, if SNG flies and SP goes way up, then it doesn’t screw up the ratio of their fund too much."

That statement is absolute rubbish I'm sorry to point out that out. You meant to say that: "Polar are likely to be de-risking pre-phase III SPRINTER readout just in the unlikely event of failure of the trial, then they will be slightly less exposed to SNG downside risk from an overall fund portfolio perspective....please try to re-read your messages before pinging them off as quality is much better than quantity. No bad feeling, just needed to point this out - good luck to you as I know you are a keen investor so have backed the right horse (we hope together).

Hi Manifesto - In future I think vax's will still maintain the bedrock of anti-viral protection for the masses in general and vax version 1,2,3,4,5+, 6++, 7+++ multiplexed versions will become a little akin to the annual flu vax for many people....BUT one will have to wait 6-18 months to vaccinate the whole world for every new dangerous mutated variant coming along (e.g. allowing R&D time to configure them and then scale up, unless of course there is a knockout agnostic vax which may be unlikely in the near future).
Hence there will be a VERY BIG competitive advantage for SYN as you won't need to tweek SNG001 for every variant that comes along and its instantaneously efficacious and safe, albeit much more costly to administer to everyone. SNG001 fits into the "vax mutation treatment gaps" very well and is entirely complementary in that respect and also will be used for other serious hospitalised patients with all manner of other respiratory viruses. Looks promising to me come on phase III readout RNS.

I agree Woody. These people need to push on back to the correct BB not this one.

Most general investors don't understand clinical trials, the risks and rewards... shame. They will soon.

Its all a load of "Hawk-Kestrel-Manoeuvres-in-the-Dark" if you ask me!

It isn't just safe it's possibly hyper-sonic!

NDN71 comment: - "if they have RNSable data they will RNS it".
I agree they WILL but they DON'T have to RNS it as soon as they are aware of it!!! It is proprietary intellectual property of Synairgen. THEY decide when to announce it not me, you or anyone else can drive them to announce - it will happen when they are 100% ready and makes business sense. Please re-educate yourself on this subject before misleading people.

The chart does not INFLUENCE anything about the future SP, but it does show investor average expectations of the future. :-). Bring it on please RM....

Ndn71. SNG will not announce until all the preliminary commercialisation and regulation ducks are in a row ...could even be tomorrow ....but very odd you should say if they had the data they would announce it. Very wrong my friend. There is a lot going on behind the scenes IMV. it's not all about investors, this is a diligent and well managed business

Any bid will likely be measured by preceding days share price say 3 weeks pre deal so its not in anyone's interests to sell a bean IMO.. hold for gold.

It's coming v soon. If the data was pants you would not do this. 99.9% all downside SP risk is now covered at tiny 400GBP market cap.

I could be wrong here but is AZ cleaning away tail end products in its Respiratory portfolio in readiness for a takeover of SNG? Its just divested 2 COPD products that could be used by US/EU Anti Trust Competition Regulators to block a future acquisition of SNG. See for yourself RNS: AstraZeneca PLCTransfer of rights to Eklira, Duaklir completed

RNS Number : 4812X

AstraZeneca PLC

05 January 2022

 

5 January 2022 07:00 GMT

 

Transfer of global rights for Eklira and Duaklir to Covis Pharma completed

 

AstraZeneca has completed the transfer of its global rights to Eklira (aclidinium bromide), known as Tudorza in the US, and Duaklir (aclidinium bromide/formoterol) to Covis Pharma Group (Covis Pharma).

 

Financial considerations

Under the terms of the agreement, AstraZeneca received a payment of $270m from Covis Pharma. AstraZeneca will also receive payments in respect of certain ongoing development costs related to the medicines. The income arising from the upfront payment will be fully offset by a charge for derecognition of the associated intangible asset and therefore no Other Operating Income will be recognised in AstraZeneca's financial statements.

 

Notes

 

Eklira and Duaklir

Eklira (aclidinium bromide) and Duaklir (aclidinium bromide/formoterol) are inhaled respiratory medicines used for the maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Eklira is a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), which is marketed in the US as Tudorza and in some countries as Bretaris.

 

Duaklir is a combination therapy that contains both a LAMA and a long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA). It is marketed in some countries as Brimica.

 

Both medicines are presented as a dry powder for inhalation and are delivered via a breath-actuated multi-dose dry powder inhaler, Genuair (Pressair in the US). AstraZeneca licensed the global rights to both products from Almirall S.A. in 2014.

 

AstraZeneca

AstraZeneca (LSE/STO/Nasdaq: AZN) is a global, science-led biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialisation of prescription medicines in Oncology, Rare Diseases, and BioPharmaceuticals, including Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism, and Respiratory & Immunology. Based in Cambridge, UK, AstraZeneca operates in over 100 countries and its innovative medicines are used by millions of patients worldwide. Please visit astrazeneca.com and follow the Company on Twitter @AstraZeneca.