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Tommy. Thanks for all your informative posts. What I'm not getting at the moment is why the FDA works not consider all of the clinical data together from all the trials. You would see that this product is very safe. You would always see a baseline signal poking above the background noise but perhaps not in each discrete trial as being stat significant. But when you look at the patterns and correlations and work out the fluke chance of all the trials pointing to "it works" then that has to be highly highly significant. Eg. The sprinter intent to treat v's full protocol shows a partial response in the former. If 90% of the sprinter countries show positive response characteristics. Eg all the same direction. What is the chance of that happening by fluke given 2 completely other trials gave the same trend indication. I'm sure the broader maths stats and sheer improbability of no efficacy prove: 1 it's safe and 2 it works well enough to approve.
The reason I invested far too much here originally was my perceived downside value case (in the long run) that was going to be underpinned for the use of SNG001 against metabolic disorders of interferon production or presence of auto self antibodies for all manner respiratory infections that I believe are between 0.5% and 1% of an average population size. So it's just a hold for me now to see if that cones to fruition or partially via trade sale or out-licensing event. Ordinarily that may get you $1bn of value in the future but given value leakage on sale then £0.4 to £0.5bn is where I'm still minimum. If we get good activ and deep dive then I'm still optimistic its at least 2x that number in the long run, but such a painful wait again.
Not necessarily so Bruce. Mutations are random in nature and can take viral severity up or down quite by chance, especially if they jump several mutation steps at once. Look at some of the worst influenza outbreaks during the last few hundred years...as one example. Are we saying flu will gradually disappear as a potentially harmful pathogen...nope. Guess again. We are already seeing vaccine infectious creep around for SARS cov2. Creeping mutations also create larger jumps that kick start a bad variant.
The historical global wave nature of mutant variants establishing themselves appears to be around every 4 to 6 months between peaks tracing back since the ground zero China incident.
Now, my theory is as follows;
1. Mutation creation is a direct correlation with number of infections given same probability chance of mutation rate for each person infected
2. There is a seasonal effect but globally does not seem to be that significant or overwhelming ( eg still get peaks in summer)
3. The increased case rate globally now with higher transmission rate probably means a reduced time for new virulent mutations to be created with a compressed time between peaks and troughs !!
So next viral peak probably will be here in around 3 to 4 months. Could be longer , could be shorter but that's my best guess.
This has to be a good measured risk adjusted stock buy right now at this tiny price. Oil expensive, feedstock of many products ITX are aiming to replace with greener alternatives. It's got to be counter cyclical in present market landscape and outlook
Correct xviolet , It's genetic evolution, SARS Cov2 has been in other global species evolving in symbiosis for millennia ....why would 2022 change this dynamic? Not its majorly into humans and its never going away just like genital herpes.
One battle lost with phase 3 sprinter but war is not lost. We know IT works . ..its taken millions of years of evolution to get to SNG001 and I'm holding for realisation of that reality. Good luck if you decide to offload to Polygon at this tiny price but I'm HOLDING on
Good note AJP. I agree we are sat well for now on this company with lots of upside driven off this awful humanitarian disaster and the oil price issue that will catalyse more long term substitution to cheaper green products ingredients. Just waiting for news announcements to flow our way on this front. Good luck all.
Mentions genetic dysfunctional interferon gene closely linked to severe covid illness. Just more scientific evidence in this study based on rural world evidence on 1000s of DNA samples from severe, mild and asymptomatic people
Isnt it important also in the round to look whether there are patterns in the treated v's non treated arms in discrete country segments and look for correlation. This also may indicate an unusual highly improbable result that means or indicates beyond reasonable doubt that SNG001 results are stat significant (e.g. imagine if EACH country data shows that there were NEVER a circumstance at a COUNTRY level where "treatment arm" deaths or severe disease were higher than non-treatment arm. Then do the same analysis on the prior phase II and the ACTIV 2 if possible to cross correlate. If this were the case I think (non stats view) that a proof of significance could theoretically be pulled over the line.