Prof Sir Jonathan Van Tam - promoting new thread (Oakleaf credit)20 Jan 2022 16:38
Dear Oakleaf - thanks for raising my awareness of this online webinar - I'm now registered - yes very very interesting timing I agree with you. Here is my submitted question below and the same thrust of many messages I sent to UK Government & Kate Bingham Leader of the UK Vaccines Taskforce when Covid all kicked off:
Question submitted to JVT:
Regarding the COVID pandemic, with the benefit of hindsight, does the speaker agree that there is a highly important role for large cohort “Real World Evidence (RWE) studies”, that are rapidly expedited, and volunteer driven, within regulatory ‘lite’ clinical frameworks, to inform evidence of broad efficacy and safety benefits for drug assets in post-phase II (such as Soton Biotech, Synairgen’s SNG001 that exhibited a very clean safety profile and has existing clinical uses in other delivery forms)? This would remove the blockage of elongated and overly onerous regulated clinical trials processes for standard pharma assets, assuming presence of keen volunteers that legally agree to any treatment risk. If not, where would he draw the line of % death rate threshold of any new emerging infection variants, before he would recommend RWE methods as the way forwards to more rapidly introduce effective medicines and perhaps save countless lives globally?
Seems strange to me and maybe others. Must make sense in their portfolio based decisions in the round, but timing of retreat on SNG must be a difficult one for them with all the facts to date. There was a thread by someone here last week saying polar funds had done really badly during 2021 (the entire fund) so they are probably not exposing themselves to say 5% downside risk and giving away 95% chance of value uplift from 205p. Weird.
Big challenge in PMQ time on TV from Labour to boris j & Co. What are they doing about the threat of new variants and also supporting UK Diagnostics supply side...not alot! Labour apparently has been thinking. of course Boris will try to make a super big thing of SNG at readout because he will have to to save face.
RM cant wait too long to release the beans because the CAT is already putting its head through the cat flap! Lots of people and businesses could insider trade now IMO so its got to come soon....this week is my guess (tomorrow?)
Yes the new company web site and the new jobs advertised is the 'leak' pre-RNS....lots of 'smokey' clues in last month, we are just nearing the bend in the road and maybe the 'fire' will be there in all its glory for RM & Co. to extinguish.
I agree. Intra day is most likely IMV, when US and UK stock markets are open at the same time- why? Because RM has such high integrity and sense of fair play he would not want to prejudice any US based investors without UK trading access who wanted to buy on the P3 news. If it was UK morning then the US investors would miss the boat so to speak on the P3 rise in stock price....it also allows for a joined-up news/social media tsunami that simultaneously hits US and EU together
I finally managed to review in detail the Finncap brokers note from their web site dated 10 Jan 22. Looks quite diligently prepared and well thought through, not over-promising with a 12p target at the end of 2022 based on a mid-case forecast projection. I think the author/broker has been around a while because I recall his name in spec. chem and possibly some pharma broker notes quite a few years ago. He clearly describes the initial Covid related and new launch stock filling effects (high 2020A) that drove the SP up (16p) and then the over-correction in 2021 (to about 4.25p lowest in Dec 21 due to storm damage risk plus de-stocking issue). Illustratively, if you switch the revenues from 2020 & 2021 you get a pretty good view of the back out of the stock effect on revenue in my view year-on-year. The adjusted revenue numbers then flow as shown below, which to me gives an indication on the hypothetical revenue trajectory (2019A-23F Broker) and adjusted longer term % growth rates: 2019A – $1.3m (base year) 2020 Adj. Actual $2.5m (+92%) 2021 Adj. Actual $3.3m (+32%) 2022F $4.7m (+42%) 2023F $7.6m (+62%) Where I am on value is that there was an overshoot (as we all know) based on 2020A excitement that drove the SP aggressively during H1 21. If this stock swing effect did not occur and you were to normalise/adjust 20/21, then it would have resulted in a much more leisurely share price appreciation over 2021 with no big sell off in H2. I think the lowest SP was reached of around £4.25 that represents the low resistance point (fear sell off / great uncertainty of manufacturing resilience / customer problems) from that creating the big under-shoot (storm damage etc).
Now that that supply de-stocking and manufacturing risk is behind us and the expectation is further growth (diversification and new existing client add-ons coming on stream) and miles of fairly clear road again for 2022/23 with the prospect of a double bagger in 11 months. My gut feel is that this is achievable. The sweetner for me is still the prospect of ‘silent’ on boarding of new contracts for completely new markets and new customers. That’s why I have gradually bought in and it’s a strong hold for me on fundamentals for the next few years and as it is a partial hedge from other non-green economic markets. The key Broker comments for me are: “We initiate coverage with a price target of 12p, founded on the confidence that over the next year the group will reach material commercial milestones that will act as catalysts to the shares” “In the near term, ITX has a potential pipeline of $25m of projects” (obviously a current inside insight from Management to Finncap). Good luck all LTHs for 22/23 its looking good for growth.
RE: Share results with FDA regulators before market RNS?17 Jan 2022 14:26
I think this is a real possibility actually given the medical market emergency - not to give full colour but the message that its looking good or really good based on purely indicative headlines to date and to prepare for full RNS soon so they can plan accordingly for formal review once full colour RNS of top line data.
RM and the SNG senior team must feel increasingly pressured to release phase III headlines with such a pivotal treatment for hospitalised patients and market need so high, so my guess the RNS is coming out very very soon. I agree Tony, when the key messages are aligned with all the parallel background actions the RNS will surface. They may need a 24 hour switchboard in Soton office if the news is as we expect. I'm sure RM's diary planning looks interesting right now.
Correct ITX is a BIG BARGAIN right now sub 10p Jan 22 for what you get for your dosh (e.g. largely de-risked cashflows/emerging profitability from our green ITX secret additives/enhancements into blue chip clients' products). The pure aggregated stripped bare 'IP' value must protect downside below 5p IMV since probably at least 2x coverage that has been invested in R&D as a going concern over the years and the IP now has considerable future cashflow value attached to it. ITX is hiding under a bushel so to speak but a steady rise during 2022 surely makes sense as revenues rise and likely a bigger Q1/Q2 performance than normal because the downstream branded companies will want to re-stock up to prevent unusual weather related interruptions on ITX factors on a key feedstock (as a prudent measure for supply chain).
I noticed old boy or girl you are an investor in GSK, now looking for your next investment eh? ....well as long as the sale of the consumer division goes through and GSK SP rises handsomely. East isn't it scrape another 2-3% discount on SNG and pump all your profits in under our current valuation. You cunning little fox you. Well you've been uncovered.
To be honest as long as PhIII is average to good (90% probable), we won't need "cash" because we have a patented virus killing machine that produces gold bars. Hehe...if we need dirty folding cash we can just sell some gold. What a joke point from this inept poster...