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To be honest, I think ITX will be merged/acquired with/by another speciality polymer/chem business well before we hit $100m revenues. There are too many globally diverse / big tier or regional mid-caps or smaller niche ECO focused players out there - all hungry for strong reliable market rev. growth, product/brand diversification and higher margin potential (chemistry functionality with added value possibilities). A business combination will generate significant synergies IMO. Not least customer access & leverage/overhead reduction/marketing power/noise and portfolio/R&D synergies (co-promotion of adjacent products). In any case, a key catalyst will be displacement of existing incumbent ingredients. This could happen sooner than one may think. Any takeout of the company will need to reimburse all the costs to date invested plus a handsome bid premium but the longer we stay alone the bigger the rewards for shareholders. Just hang on to your shares is my recommendation.
Wishing Thorndon all the very best and hope he is well. He has been an invaluable asset to the Board over many years hunting down ITX niche brand wins/early mkt penetrations that now leads us to the likes of Henkel, Unilever and I hope P&G in future too (unless anyone knows we are already in their formulations already!). Thanks buddy, we appreciate the time and great effort you have placed in ITX sleuthing to track down the best part of c.150+ global brands.
The other thing in my mind right now is whether the ITX market guidance for 2024 and 2025+ stated by the company is a mid point projection or not. I suspect its just the run rate expansion for existing mainstream products plus continued formulation development revenues added together to be prudent. The reason I think this is that if you had 2 to 4 additional transformational new product channels the company would be unlikely to mould that upside into the core revenues. So all these major upsides are a bonus for 2024/25 if they come off and generate market traction and sales. I also think this is the reason last year we saw the large professional investor 10m USD round with no effective discount to minority share price at the time when normally you would see a 10 to 20% disc on share price for the new money.
Hi AJP, I didnt see that big trade! There is definitely someone hovering up some larger chunks of stock in the background that we did not see previously in the trading patterns. I took a look at the Canaccord Genuity (CG) web site and noticed they have Wealth division for high net worths etc and a few funds under management that focus on micro and nano capitalised stocks. I think the reason Finacap was ejected recently as dual nominated fin. advisor is that CG has greater capacity for establishing more of a wider investor presence for ITX. So, I think now the share is at a modest base camp (so to speak) essentially based purely on the existing launched products cashflows and we await for more news on the new transformative upside market opps. update early April? (3-4 of them) that may drive strongly the SP in April onwards. I think that's the reason someone is covertly adding bigger chunks of shares is my view with the view to another strong uplift beyond 250p (5p in old money) in the rest of 2024. Remember ITX has significant intangible asset value off balance sheet for these new market access R&D innovations (R&D projects in waiting to launch). Back in 2023 John said there was a rich $30m pipeline of potential customer/new development orders they are tracking with and that aligns with the doubling of the "formulation development" sales from memory at the time but I would have to look back at all the RNS's to confirm.
There is a significant amount of global lifescience/health/med tech R&D effort ongoing for Enhanced Drug Delivery/Inert implant based medical tech and woundcare tech. applications so its another place ITX can play in for sure in the future
Thx DB. not seen this video before, alot of good history. I did not know this was a stereoisomer based chemistry (chiral) for our key subject of matter patent. This is important for the functionality aspects and maps to other innovations for drug NCE development to improved efficacy and safety. (E.g. a few years back an anti sickness/vomiting drug was launched by GSK which had only one of the bio active isomers in its composition. Cheers
Hi think this is the non polymerised molecule not subject to itx patented tech. SODIUM POLYITACONATE. I think the latter is our ingredient but they are using the former also in some preservative use from what I understand with very aqueous formulation. The patent gurus can confirm tomorrow....
Certainly makes us much more attractive for near term or medium term M&A target for a large dirty hydrocarbon non green player at a high price premium as upside but longer we are solo the more premium we eventually get.
I think people are getting the fact now that 2024F is already baked into the fundamentals of the business (quasi-zero delivery risk) since sticky customers are gaining market share/volumes and they cannot now easily reverse and switch out of ITX supply chain/branded technology now its out there in their product portfolios. So anyone valuing this baby needs to assume 2024F is reality now and it will breach profitablity thresholds soon its only a matter of time and volume dependent. My advice to you enjoy the reversal of share price fortune over time and don't sell your shares too cheaply since we are only at 4p old money pre consolidation now with bags of intrinsic value upside.
I could be wrong here but there maybe a private/corporate investor gently accumulating in the background - seems many very similar volume blocks/chunks being purchased in a continuous periodic trend gently soaking up sellers as the price rises.
Thanks AJP08, hadn't seen this. Looks like some orders already flowing or in very near pipeline for niche leather and paints areas. John looks like a very contented cheshire cat right now. He disclosed why the USD10m placement was made to fuel/derisk medium term diversification growth, and adding a stable cash platform to get that delivered..excellent. Thx
Hi clueless, all investors have different investment horizons. So many here like me are waiting for a much bigger return that as you point out could now happen at any time with a trade offer/M&A bolt on transaction from a bigger spec chems fish, BUT the exit price will be well well above 250p since all market players want growth and market access and to perhaps protect their existing cashflows from displacement from ECO advanced functional polymers. Now we are growing strongly and with John boasting about his prototype leather shoes using ITX production methods in testing during his recent interview. I think we are in for an exciting ride in 24/25. Hoping to hear on prospective opps. soon with full final results disclosure.
RB as an innovation business in early stages of market diversification and on the cusp of exciting new revenue channels, CEO focus on S/T "earnings" are probably destroying value instead of the CEO & MGT TEAM pursuing rapid acceleration in market access development/ investment to achieve ITX's full market and shareholder value potential.