RE: Statistical ratios - Sprinter06 Mar 2022 10:24
Isnt it important also in the round to look whether there are patterns in the treated v's non treated arms in discrete country segments and look for correlation. This also may indicate an unusual highly improbable result that means or indicates beyond reasonable doubt that SNG001 results are stat significant (e.g. imagine if EACH country data shows that there were NEVER a circumstance at a COUNTRY level where "treatment arm" deaths or severe disease were higher than non-treatment arm. Then do the same analysis on the prior phase II and the ACTIV 2 if possible to cross correlate. If this were the case I think (non stats view) that a proof of significance could theoretically be pulled over the line.
I think the value on the downside is pretty much under-pinned by the "heavy current discount" to the large historic R&D investment ITX have made over many years coupled with all the intangible asset (IA) value off balance sheet from blue chip customer acquisition and continuing relationship/chemistry development. So for me all of the material SP volatility is on the upside - its got to go north from here IMO; especially if there are further contract roll outs announced in the near term.
To coin your choppy waters analogy Kevin, would you expect the captain to leave the bridge of the ship at a critical time to chat to the fare paying passengers?? Of course not he's working 110% to get us back into safe waters
Also where is the news on the in vitro potency for all emerging Covid variants B1 and B2? Why hasn't the company RNS'ed that? I don't blame them if they are working 15hrs a day with global regulators and M&A or BD&L partners but if not they should come to shareholders with more information ASAP
Yes thanks Brand. In my view a meta analysis of all trials to date must prove beyond reasonable doubt that SNG001 works and is safe as a potential agnostic antiviral of great value. Statistical significant in isolation on each trial may be marginal or boarderline but when you look across all the clinical evidence I would argue there is an EUA possibility but we wait for the connections to be made and for SNG Bods shouting it out loudly to regulators and governments
Steroids affect metabolism and distribution of T and B lymphocytes, but do not significantly affect antibody production in man. Steroids profoundly affect the inflammatory response by way of vasoconstriction, decreased chemotaxis, and interference with macrophages. ..... so SNG001 may have reduced viral replication but the steriods reduced clearance efficiency. Hence deaths reductions but no recovery time benefit observed! Role on USA trial on phase 3
Makes sense to sell the business to a deep wallet company that can refine the clinical trials focus from here since SNG001 has material value we know this;, in the worst case it becomes a niche expensive product for unborn errors of interferon metabolism and patients with autoantibodies. Product value likely to be c$1bn+ so maybe we can grab 66% = $650m on a takeover deal minimum. This was always in my disaster scenario for SNG. I don't think holders will lose money on their investments even at 220p in coming months. However, I'm gutted we may not see the full fair value of what SNG001 has under its bonnet.
2022 looks like a defining year then for growth /client & product extension - all looking good. Well done JS & team. I think the efforts of the new BD person are coming on stream now after a short lag effect as you may expect whilst they get their ducks aligned.
Ndn71. Or in fact 4. They are waiting for all patients confirming their 90day final outcomes due to some of them being on holiday, working hard or being ill with something other than covid or indeed long covid..so that their responses are not biased by noise of success or failure; Or 5. We don't know 5. Because we are all on the outside in the dark. That's also an alternative outcome. Eg it's beyond our tiny brains to describe exactly WTF is happening.
I'm being philosophical tonight.... I still find it amazing that something significantly smaller than a cell can out smart the highly evolved so called hyper -intelligent human race. However, we create our own rules of engagement and regulatory boundaries and norms deemed ethical and politically correct, whilst we suffer and people die. Lord help us if we ever have 3 months warning of a major meteor strike. I wonder if any rules and guidelines will be broken to try to stop global annihilation. How sad clinical regulation has slowed the launch of a safe, efficacious treatment instead of using pragmatic obvious solutions to the problem.
RE: SourceBio. Focused discussion from other thread18 Feb 2022 21:05
I don't refute your challenge Doc if it's correct but does a small Dutch CRO have access to next gen genetic analysis technology (significantly based in the UK) like this listed entity with good resources? Don't we need a significant reliable company in partnership or in parallel to this smaller company?
SourceBio. Focused discussion from other thread18 Feb 2022 20:44
If the whisper has some substance then why Source Bio PLC which seems highly specific? Who is doing the " in vitro" potency testing of SNG001 against all variants of concern in UK? Who has access to UK wide contemporaneous samples for PCR and next gen sequencing to identify small viral point mutations? Efficacy against emerging variants? In vitro efficacy testing of Omicron B1 and importantly B2 which is just emerging.?...is this not the focus of the whole world when the SNG001 results are uncovered and some Channel 4 journalist asks..." so what proof do you have that SNG001 is efficacious against Omi version B2.041 identified last week in Bradford? By joining a technical session with the company performing the bread and butter molecular potency assessment you are leveraging your marketing message significantly to a potentially skeptical global audience. Is this one possibility?