Member Info for ElProfessor

In GBP even more marked. Only one spike in history that has seen a higher price than today which was when it went up to 1132 and we are less than £40 from that at today's high.

Rebess,

You are welcome.

I really hope that Cey can overcome its recent tendency to come up with fundamentally disappointing news just as the SP is starting to recover. I really think it will be good news this time and the SP will shoot up, however I thought the same back in Feb and then we got the news ref 2019 production which led to the SP falling off a cliff from 135p.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Rebess,

There are a couple of dates in the financial calendar on the Centamin website. They are:
-18 Jul Q2 2019 Quarterly Report
-31 Jul Interim 2019 Results

Hope that helps,
Prof

P&L,
Did Cey not commit to providing three years of production guidance at some stage in Q2?
Regards,
Prof

at 20:21.

Hi Tibbs,
Sotolo has not disappeared he posted here Wed evening what was I thought a very good and balanced post.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Good to hear from you. Your last call about this falling was spot on so well done.
I agree that CEY to a large extent is a bet on gold and therefore a contrarian bet on the economy. On a company specific level I do feel that there is good upside provided, and it is a big provided, management can turn around the production issues that caught us out so badly in 2018 and have continued into 2019. I was genuinely expecting 2019 to be an excellent year with the issues behind us so hope that I am just 12 months too early in my optimism. It is amazing how quickly and comprehensively sentiment can turn on this stock. Am I right that management have promised a three year forecast sometime in Q2? If so, even allowing for the fact I believe that they will, quite rightly, be conservative I am expecting it to show that the worse is behind us and therefore act as a catalyst for a rise. I do not believe it will require much for this share to return to the 130s, but then again, as I have said many times before I am natural optimist which is not always the best thing in investing (hence why I like your often more pessimistic/realistic view as a counter balance).
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi P&L,
Thanks. It seems to be holding at the 1277 level for the past 10 mins. You are right that this could be a big takedown in which case it is interesting to see it so short-lived.
Prof

P&L,
Just saw that too and been scouring a few news pages to see if there is anything obvious but can't find anything.
Thoughts anyone?
Best wishes.Prof

Gold up .5% at 1287.5 and still Cey refused to move.

Not sure I have ever seen CEY trade in such a tight band. With the exception of the brief opening peak this has been pretty much with .5p all day so far.
I would like to see more of an increase today however, I share Razor's view about holding Wednesday's gain. Had someone said on Tue, when we slipped into the 70s, that we could close the week in the 90s (yes I know very high 70s and very low 90s) I would have bitten their hand off.

Thanks Tibbs.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Razor,

That is very kind of you - thank you.

It is amazing how knowledgable you become when you are heavily invested in a share; perhaps even more so when taking a bit of a bath which I am unfortunately currently doing with our good friend Centamin.

Best wishes,
Prof

Cowichan,
Whatever they call I reckon they will be very conservative both because the further out in time you go the more you have to be and because they had their fingers badly burnt last year and will have reverted to their previous modus operandi.
Best wishes,
Prof

Sorry just noticed the last two digits of the last number got cut off as I ran out of characters. It was 524kOz.

[CONT FROM PREVIOUS POST]

If you assume Q2 will be a little be better than Q1 than I mentioned in my calculations below, say at 125kOz then you get H1 at 241koz and full year at 535koz. Clearly here I am just playing with numbers but you hopefully you get the point.
I am not sure how familiar you are with gold mining shares but the AISC (all in sustaining cost) of producing gold is a key measure along with the price of gold (revenue). AISC generally rises sharply as production falls which is one of the reasons (along with rise in oil price) that you have seen the AISC creep up for Cey over the past couple of years. This is exacerbated at the moment as they are doing further cut backs of ore to get at the better stuff and that means the costs of mining are there for very little revenue.
Hope this helps.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Morning Sun,

Welcome to the Board and the roller coaster ride that is Centamin.

Your summary is broadly right except for your reading of why the market got so upset in Feb this year on full year results with the subsequent crash from 134p to 96p in a day. The issue was not the result that were reported for the previous year which had been well sign posted but the cut in Production for the coming year with the associated rise in AISC. Consensus was around 535k oz for 2019, with some PIs such as myself expecting closer to 560k and Centamin then called 490-520K.

To put some flesh on the bones Cey mgmt had always been conservative in their forecasts for Production: under promise and over deliver. In 2018 they called 560k (it may even have been 580) but, after announcing Q1 results where they said they were on track, inexplicably 3 weeks later they said they were going to be significantly short (from memory I think they called c.520k) with that being back loaded in the year. The blame was laid at the transition through low grade ore taking longer than anticipated combined with major production issues related to the long haul drill rig, of which they had only one (which many on this Board felt was appalling contingency planning however this kit is expensive so it is a trade off). Centamin then announced a further cut to Production forecast for 2018 around Q3 and the price sunk further. Q4 delivered to plan which helped the SP to recover somewhat supported by some good exploration results announced in Feb which drove the SP back to 135p with most people thinking the problems were behind us and that 2019 would be a strong year with Production potentially back to what had originally been forecast for 2018 (I think Q418 Production was 137k so if that was the new quarterly level then it would support the expectation of c550-560K). The announcement that accompanied 2018 results that 2019 would still see Production issues to be worked through, that the COO was off and that Production would be backloaded in the year (45% first half 55% second half with just 105-115K in Q1 spooked the market) who wondered if there was something more fundamentally wrong with the mine. This has the SP hovering in the range 88-96p for c6 weeks and then the fall of gold below 1300 further weakened the SP with the result being the 79p you saw on the day before Q1 results this week.
The latest results coming in narrowly ahead of the best case for Q1 has given the market a confidence boost in the share price hence the recovery. If you believe what the company said in the Q1 results namely:
-Q1 in at 116K
-there will be a quarter on quarter progression in 2019
-H1 will be 45% and H2 55%
then you can work out that the fact the company is still calling 490-520k for the year is likely to be slightly conservative as if Q2 is stronger than Q1 (let us assume 120k) then H1 will be 236koz. Given H1 is 45% of the year production then H2 will be c288kOz given a full year of 5

Tiger and GoldGnome,
Thanks for your responses. A tie up in whatever form is an interesting thought.
Best wishes,
Prof

Unless I am getting confused Jeremy Langford, the new COO, was until February the COO at Endeavour. Endeavour is where Mark Morecambe, Centamin's former COO will be starting next month.
Any thoughts on that anyone?
Best wishes,
Prof

What on earth did Centamin show the analysts on the recent site tour and what did they tell them. Whatever it was, albeit with a positive tailwind from gold and the resource announcement led to a steady rise in the share price.
I know it was a closed period but was there no mention/ visible sign of the production issues that were announced yesterday?