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Bit of a fall back in $POG (temporary I suspect) but £POG still very close to record highs as a result of the slump in the cable (£/$ exchange rate).

Interesting article on gold mining and investment in Egypt published yesterday in 'Egypt Today'. Quite a few references to Centamin and quotes from some of the senior team.
http://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/72865/Sitting-On-A-Gold-Mine

Hedgehogg,

Thanks for sharing that. A very positive statement from the company. It is very difficult, in my opinion, to see how, particularly combined with the recent share awards to senior mgmt, that the H2 updates could be anything be glowing.

Provided gold price holds I think we could see some serious upwards motion in the SP over the next few weeks and months.

Here's hoping.
Prof

Phil,
Thanks for that useful analysis. I agree it shows the drop is overdone although I would flag the following:
- we will only get the higher gold price on the gold not yet sold this year i.e. H2
-gold has got to stay high for us to benefit (although clearly it could also go higher)
-we have got to produce the 505K this year. Personally I think we will do more but the issue of mgmt credibility has to be taken into account (i.e people don't believe them as much as they did)
-the price pre-downgrade was not just a reflection of what was being done but what it was expected would be done. Many at the time were talking about production going beyond 600k in the following year

Having said all that I agree the fall looks overdone in light of both the way you lay out the numbers and also the broader facts.

I remain, as I have mentioned a number of times, confident for 18 Jul and 31 Jul (prod numbers and then H1 results). Provided I am right and gold holds good then I am optimistic that we will see the SP at 150+ again within the year.

Best wishes,
Prof

'too' in line 7 not 'to'.

Gold currently at £1134.5. It looks to me like this is a new all time high in GBP.

BTW great debate on here overnight.

Personally I think my thoughts aline closest with Goldgnome's on this.

Sotolo,
Great to see you back on the board. Also delighted that you are cautiously positive on the share. You are have been right to many times in the past when you have been negative on the share price!

Someone posted last week that even CEY management would not be so insensitive as to award themselves slugs of new shares if the H1 news was not good. That thought, combined with the fact that I was optimistic anyway for the H1 results, leads me to believe we will be very pleasantly surprised with the results in a couple of weeks. If CEY beats this year's expectations comfortably, gold remains buoyant and the guidance for next year is strong then I expect great things. Of the previous list I expect the first two. The third (next year's guidance) I expect to be better than this year but cautious and then comfortably exceeded.

Best wishes all,
Prof

So what has happened over the weekend to drive gold down?
1. Trump and Xi agreed to talk again and not make matters any worse on the protectionist side for the time being (but broadly not make them any better either, leaving existing tariffs in place). Well we all know how well that went last time they had talks.
2. Trump walked 30 paces into North Korea for a photo opportunity and agreed to talk again with Kim. Well we all know well that went too last time they had talks.
Meanwhile world growth continues to be downgraded, the US continues to run an enormous deficit, the US and Iran are at fundamental loggerheads, we have two candidates for UK PM with policies that the current Chancellor says are unfundable and polices for Brexit that few believe in, Hong Kong in riots, ice storms in Mexico and record heat waves in Europe.
I think I am fine in gold and gold miners for now!

Thanks Mick.

Very helpful.

Best wishes,
Prof

Today's high is 1106,74GBP which is higher than the 1106.06 last week on 21 Jun (unless there was a higher intraday). This means the only time gold has ever been higher in GBP was in the summer of 2011 when it hit its all time high of 1132.10 GBP. We are getting close to that.

I think my numbers above are right but am deriving it from the gold bullion chart. Can anyone confirm or correct please?

Best wishes,
Prof

Agreed. I don't think 500 would be accepted however as realistic. A balancing act for mgmt!

Hi DASUT,

Looks like our thinking is pretty much aligned. The only point I would differ is that I don't think they will be so conservative as to call just 500 next year. I would expect a call of 520 with an actual coming in at around 550.
I definitely agree that the widening of the resource base, even if three years out, would be a key factor - a potential game changer in fact.

Nice progress today and hoping we get a turbo boost on 18 Jul from production results once again ahead of forecast.

Best wishes,
Prof

Morning PushMePullYou,

I agree with you ref profit and the three drivers however would add that it is not just the absolute that matters but also the trend. My view is the reason we hit such a high (intraday of 193 in April 2017) was the market was seeing a positive trend in all three drivers and therefore anticipated profit would continue to surge. Conversely the reason we were hit so bad in Feb this year was the market anticipated a rising production figure and falling AISC (I certainly did) and was confounded by the announcements.
I do believe that Production will be sorted this year and we will return to mid 500s in production (announcements may be lower due to management returning to a very cautious approach after last year's debacle) and gold certainly looks on an uptrend having broken a six year resistance level with ease.

Best wishes,
Prof

Will it hold?

It would be fantastic to close the week above this key psychological level.

Thanks Tibbs.

Prof

Tibbs,

Thanks for sharing that. When did they tell you that please?

Thanks,
Prof

I think you are right and that they said H1.

...at the 1400 level this morning.

Key will be which way the US markets jump when they open. If we close the week above the 1400 level then I think even more attention will be paid to gold than is already being paid.

Hi Market,

Good to hear from you.

I agree about which way round it is at the moment. This actually gives me comfort because we still have CEY exciting the market to come IF (and it is an enormous IF) I am right about CEY having turned a corner this year and just being extra cautious in what they promise.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Market,

Good to hear from you.

I agree about which way round it is at the moment. This actually gives me comfort because we still have CEY exciting the market to come IF (and it is an enormous IF) I am right about CEY having turned a corner this year and just being extra cautious in what they promise.

Best wishes,
Prof

... could be interesting if gold stays at these kind of levels. I seem to recollect that CEY did their profit forecasting based on gold at $1250. We are knocking on the door of $1400 which would be 12% higher. All that extra money, bar the profit share, goes straight into the coffers so is available for dividends.

As I said previously all we need now is for CEY to break with recent tradition and not announce anything catastrophic on 18 Jul (production). Ever the optimist I am expecting that Q2, like Q1 will exceed forecast as they will have been very conservative in all forecasts this year after last year's pain. Surely I can't be wrong again?

Best wishes,
Prof