Member Info for ElProfessor

Deals,

Your post probably best mirrors my views a about today.

Best wishes to you in these painful times,
Prof

Very much agreed.

Good to have you pop by Market.

Best wishes,
Prof

Jim,

Good to see you posting on CEY again and thanks for the info.

Best wishes,
Prof

Goldgnome,

I tend towards your view that this is Cey parting company with MM rather than vice-versa. His time as COO has coincided with an awful year for Ops and you have to wonder whether there is a link. Interesting that Cey have already taken down his profile from their senior management page on their website:

http://www.centamin.com/about-us/our-team/senior-management

This suggests that their not communicating this is deliberate rather than incompetence.

Best wishes,
Prof

Resistance line at 122.5. If we can hold above that then this is looking good.

Yours in hope,
Prof

Razor,

A good spot and even better news.

Thanks,
Prof

Cowichan,

Excellent point. Neither had I and yet it is obvious now you point it out.

Prof

Thanks.

Hi Ton-fra-cen,

Thanks for the calculations. Did you factor in the Egyptian government share?

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Marmot,

Thanks for taking the time to explain your thinking. Not sure that you and I will see eye to eye on this.

Look forward to your next insightful posts.

Happy Chinese New Year for tomorrow.

Best wishes,
Prof

Interestingly this was picked up on the ADVFN board earlier than here. There they zoomed in on the 4.1cents total dividend and that would therefore imply an anaemic final dividend of 1.6cents. The board then dismissed that as highly unlikely and are currently batting back and forth on what the final dividend will be with the last 2 posts suggesting 7.5 and 10 cents.

Hi Marmot,

You are the person this board whom I look forward to the most because what you post is usually so insightful.

I hope that you won't mind me saying this but I felt your post about Sotolo was misjudged. Like most of us he will post opinions that subsequently turn out to be wrong and like all of us he will sometimes change his mind as time passes. But from what I read I see him to be a genuine poster sharing his thoughts as he goes along. He is often more pessimistic in his prognosis of the Centamin share price than I am but I welcome that as it forces me to check my thinking. When the share price dived to the high 80s recently and he had already sold out I remember thinking how I wish I had paid more heed to his nervousness and subsequent selling.

Anyway, forgive me if you feel that my post is in turn misjudged and please do keep up your own excellent insightful comments on Centamin and gold.

Best wishes,
Prof

Red Gnome (or have you turned back to normal colour),

Your point ref a large seller off-loading is a good one given that we have broadly traded all this week in the 116-117 margins despite gold increasing significantly. It is almost as though someone is holding it there but whether that is to off-load a large quantity or for some other reason is unclear.

If it is a large scale seller it brings me back to my initial question - why would you sell at the moment? I suppose one possibility is simply that they took a large position in the 90s and have reached their target. Perhaps they are highly disciplined and manage to avoid that pitfall so many us make or being too greedy/ ambitious.

Best wishes,
Prof

sorry for the spell check. In the second sentence it should have read 'trend' not 'then'.

P&L,

I am wondering exactly the same thing as you. With both the current level and then in gold along with the fact it looks like 2018 production issues were a one off, who would sell at the current price? I am not usually a big fan of the manipulation argument but I am have to wonder at present. Either that or people really are waiting until 2018 results and 2019 Production forecast at the end of Feb.

Yours confused,
Prof

Message of Fed being more cautious is being well received by gold.

Centamin has got to follow soon. I agree with those that say the results need to be out of the way for us to really move but as gold pushes up then even ahead of that we should see some good movement. OK 2018 results and more importantly 2019 production numbers and we should really move; good ones and we will motor!
There are my views, perhaps optimistic as always so would be interested to hear if anyone has a bearish view on Centamin. With the information at hand and gold at this level I can't see the case for selling at present.

Goldcorp forecast production for 2018 was 2.5million. If you take CEY forecast for 2019 as 555k ounces then Goldcorp's is 4.5x CEY All else being equal (which of course it is not) that would put a value on CEY of $10billion / 4.5 = $2 billion.

Current CEY market cap is £1.4Bn which with the cable at 1.285 equates to $1.8bn. That would therefore suggest 11% upside to CEY share price which means fair value for CEY is therefore £1.35.

Obviously the above ignores the different AISC, debt (we have none), future growth, political risk ... all would need to be factored in to get the real comparison.

PSB below for more on Goldcorp from 2018 forecast if you want to try and do that.

Goldcorp expects to produce 2.5 million ounces (+/- 5%) of gold in 2018, in line with previous guidance; AISC are expected to decline further to approximately $800 per ounce (+/- 5%) as the Company continues to realize savings from its program targeting $250 million of annual sustainable efficiencies.

The Company's 20/20/20 plan remains unchanged. As previously guided, gold production is expected to increase 20% to 3 million ounces by 2021. AISC are expected to decrease by 20% to approximately $700 per ounce over the same period driven by increased gold production and the ongoing focus on cost efficiencies and productivity improvements. Building on the successful conversion of 4.7 million ounces of gold into reserves at the Century project in 2017, gold reserves are expected to increase by 20% to 60 million ounces by 2021 supported by the exploration potential and ongoing programs at Coffee, Norte Abierto (formerly Cerro Casale/Caspiche), Cerro Negro and Pueblo Viejo.

Redgnome,

And I had thought your name was due to your interest gold when all along it was a reference to your beach bronzed body. Hope you don't stay 'red' for long.

Best wishes,
Prof

Miz,

You attention to detail is far better than mine.

Thanks,
Prof