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1192 just taken out. Will we clear 1200 tonight?

Mick,
So following on from my previous post, with the wind behind us the target of the 12 month high of 136.75 may be achievable.
Prof

Mick,

At $1444 I make the rise $28 so 2%. However your observation of CEY doing 3X gold is fair so would suggest 6% or c7.5p on the price tomorrow.
Clearly the ratio does not always hold good but if it does and gold holds at 1444 then we are looking at an opening price of around 135p. That would be nice!

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,

We have indeed and 1190 just taken out as a new high.

I agree with you that the stars seem to be aligning for CEY.

Let us hope no unexpected bad news comes out of the blue as has happened so often in the past.

Best wishes,
Prof

Looks like the 2011 GBP gold high of 1178 has been taken out with ease with gold now at 1186 in GBP.

Looking good for tomorrow,
Prof

Silent Hawk,

With gold at this level you should be back in the blue very quickly.

Good luck,
Prof

Good Morning SilentHawk,

Gutting when that happens! The fall this morning is in line with ACA and FRES and is pretty much the usual 3x gold. The questions therefore is what next for gold. To my mind the reaction to yesterday's Fed announcement is overdone. The Fed was never going to own up to the slash and burn on interest rates; it also never cuts in ones. Trump is going to keep his pressure up for more cuts to stoke the economy going into election year. I am pretty confident there are more cuts to come, particularly if Trump keeps picking trade fights. August is always a funny month and prone to over-reactions.

Best wishes,
Prof

And now back to 1419.

Since the 2018 production downgrade, just three weeks after the announcement of 'all is good and on track', Centamin management have had a credibility issue. This was made worse with the subsequent downgrades in 2018. In other words there is 'negative' confidence with the market that has to be paid off. That can only be done by management delivering on commitments made to the market. Each time they do that some of the negative confidence is paid off and the drag on the share price reduces.
What this means therefore is that each time Centamin deliver we get a double bonus to the share price: 1. for the positive performance itself, 2. for paying of some negative confidence.
I would guesstimate that the negative confidence will be paid off pretty much in full if Centamin deliver on or above expectations for the full financial year - i.e. in Feb 2020.
Centamin mgmt are in my opinion very aware of the negative confidence debt so are low-balling all their targets so that they can exceed them (including the production forecast for the next two years) and regain full market confidence.

As I say; just a theory.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Supercharger,

Like you I have a number I bought at 160 so would love to see us go past that again.

Don't worry about the share price for ACA; what matters is the market cap. In their case they are at just under 2/3rds of CEY.

Best wishes,
Prof

Will it hold?

Presentation call starting in 5 minutes. That usually leads to a move in price (either way). Given the positive story in the H2 results I would hope we will see a further rise after that.

Spreads on here now back to sensible levels.
I was following the price live on HL - didn't see it get to a 132 bid there. We seem to be comfortably above 126 with some positive momentum.

so looking like the market likes the report although no doubt not yet digested in full.

Sotolo,
I agree it is looking good (like you I would be buying more if I was not already so concentrated in the share).
'Gold sales of 224,129 ounces, a 2% decrease YoY, was 4% below gold produced due to timing of the closing weekly gold shipment at the end of the period. '
Someone wondered on this board after the Prod figures were out whether the delay to the shipping could have been managed to ensure the 45/55 spilt H1/H2. In any case the delay of a major shipment would also be a contributory factor to a higher AISC in H1, I would have thought, and should reverse out in H2.

One minute until we see the market's verdict!

Best wishes,
Prof

Kalimera,

Lower than one would want but even after paying out 46M of dividend the cash pile will be $280M with no debt. With gold at current prices, AISC forecast to fall and production to rise in H2 the EPS should soar in H2.

Best wishes,
Prof

Tiger,

Always expected them to keep plenty up their sleeve when putting out production forecasts for 2020 and 2021. Both though the numbers, how they are phrasing it, and then what they are saying in the 'Near Term Outlook' para, it does indeed look like that is what they are doing. I could see 550 plus in those years.

Prof

'We anticipate a stronger production profile in H2 and we expect cash costs and AISC to trend downwards towards the lower end of our guidance range.'

So it looks like 982 in Q2 was indeed a blip.

Unit AISC in Q2 was 982. Hopefully a blip.

Centamin baseline outlook for production in 2020 and 2021 of 510,000-540,000 ounces per annum, at cash cost of US$630-680 per ounce produced and AISC of US$870-920 per ounce sold; Baseline outlook excludes any upside from plant and open pit optimisation, underground grade improvement, Cleopatra stoping, and regional exploration; Full details of these baseline estimates and upside drivers can be found in the Operation Review.