Member Info for ElProfessor

I think the extent of the price fall post the Q3 results was a consequence of people now not trusting what the company says. While they are saying they will still hit the bottom end of FY forecast I am convinced the market is pricing in them missing it (although I am sure if we do miss we will still get another fall). For my part were I confident that Q3 was a one off, that FY would hit at least 490K and that next year would be back to 520k+ then I would be accumulating. As it is I have reduced my holding from 125k to 75k but am ready to take it back up on positive production news. As previously posted I am bullish on Gold for next year; we are in the weak period of the year for gold so seeing it at $1477 as I write is a very positive sign to me, plus I can't see the stock markets, particularly the US, continuing to defy gravity for long.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
Great to hear your, as ever enlightening views. 1 and 2 I agree fully with. 3 you could be right; I am hoping/expecting (strange how we link the two far too often) that the price of gold will be strong over the next 12 months. So much uncertainty and I can't really see that changing.
Best wishes,
Prof

Supercharge, Tibbs, Rebess,

Thanks for all taking the time to post your views in answer to my question.
I hope that you are right and that I am being unnecessarily cautious. I am just worried by the habit in the past few years of missing numbers substantially. It is a very big ask of Q4 to get to 490k for full year although, as someone pointed out a few weeks ago on this board, not unprecedented.

Good luck to all,
Prof

Hi Supercharger,
I would be interested in understanding why you feel 'we are pretty safe here in this share for the time being'.
I agree that the Van Eck increase by 1% is good and that gold is likely to pick up Dec or Jan and stay strong in 2020. My biggest short term concern is that sometime this side of Christmas we get a production update that confirms that Q4 production was not good enough to get the full year to the bottom end of guidance (490k) and that this causes a further sell off. Do you not see this as a risk?
Thanks for your thoughts.
Best wishes,
Prof

I was listening to Bright Eyes having just posted the link and this one followed on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiWomXklfv8

Worth listening to if you want to put our problems from yesterday's announcement into context.

Best wishes to all,
Prof

Those of you who know the song will be able to piece this together. For those of you who don't it is worth listening to anyway:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a502RejLz8s
For some reason I have got a line from this tune in my head this morning :
'How can a light that burnt so brightly, suddenly burn so pale'
but with the word 'share' replacing the word 'light'.
Wonder why that is?

Hi Dasut,

The 560 number for next year was based on 140 in Q4 and therefore a full year of 471-472 not actually meeting the 490 which like you I think is now out of reach. I was then extrapolating the 140 through 2020 to get the 560. I would guess however that if they have got some higher grades they can go after they might prioritise that in Q4 to try and salvage as much of full year production as possible. That could see a good Q4 that would not then be sustainable into the following year as we have previously seen.
The battered shareholder in me agrees that if they could just get 500k over the line next year with no nasty surprises that would be good. The optimist in me says surely more is possible and one day soon they have got to start delivering without the endless disappointment. As was pointed out by someone yesterday, a few months ago they were taking about 490-520 for this year with a number of factors that could generate upside. Was that a pipe dream or is it all still there and just delayed?
Very best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,

I take great comfort from the fact that you are holding yours. You have read the movements far better than me of late. My view is aligned with yours that this will recover however I have taken some money off the table because of the softness I expect in the share price in the short term. I agree that the high gold price will off-set much/all of the fall in production and so there is unlikely to be a profit warning. However logic would say that the market knew this and the new news is the reduced production therefore a lower profit than was priced in. Then again when has the market behaved logically?
Am wryly amused that you are so positive when a year or so ago, when you were quite rightly being cautious ,you had to deal with the accusations of being a de-ramper and a shorter. When will people get that different opinions are good and that a few posts on a bulletin board are not going to move a SP in any case?

Very best wishes,
Prof

... gone from my pocket that is.

Well, well, doesn't this all feel so familiar. There we were all hearing a 'low first half and a great second half ' being predicted and all hoping that this time it will be different. And then it isn't. I guess the only thing is you learn to react a little quicker to the inevitable bad news. This morning I sold 2/5ths of my holding at 120. For those who think this is me gloating, please believe it isn't; the other 3/5ths is a significant numbers of shares and they were already not above water at 120.
It is quite right that Pardey is going. Whatever his skills as a mining engineer he has committed mistake after mistake over the past 2 years. A large part of the role of the CEO of a public company is managing the shareholders and the markets and he has failed abysmally. Messaging has been inconsistent and promises, or perhaps more accurately guidance, have been over-optimistic and inevitably failed to materialise with the eternal promise of jam tomorrow.
On the one hand I feel concerned: both the Chairman and the CEO have now announced they will be leaving and the previous COO lasted less than a year. Is there something seriously wrong? I do not for one minutes believe we will hit the 490k target this year; that would require a record quarter by some margin. I suspect we will get a production downgrade for this year to a 460-480 range at some stage in the next few weeks, perhaps held off as late as Q3 result at the end of October.
And yet... As DASUT has frequently reminded us when we have hit production problems - mining is an unpredictable venture and the gold is still in the ground. Q2 had clearly been a very difficult quarter production wise to drop under 100k. It is worrying that once again they couldn't see it coming. Yet that they are even now still clinging to the line that 490K for the year is achievable means either they are even more deluded than they have previously been or that Q4 is looking at least half way decent. I am opting for the latter. Even if it is as low as 140, which from memory would mean a full year production for this year of c470k, i.e. well below the bottom end of the range, then, provided this is sustainable, would mean a run rate for next year of 560K. This would be very respectably indeed and certainly far more than the market had been pricing in of late. We all know that AISC falls rapidly as the ounces pile up and at that kind of level we could well see AISC at c 800. Were we to get that alongside a POG of the current £1500 then we would be generating $700 an ounce. With a production of 560k that would be just under $400M which even after 50% to Egypt would be $200M. I do wonder whether next year could be the year when the long suffering shareholder starts to rejoice. Unfortunately I have felt this way before.

Best wishes to all,
Prof

Chas,

A great thought.

Siko,

I would happily make another donation. BTW we are missing your wisdom and insight on the Board.

Best wishes,
Prof

Gold just went above £1271. I think that is another all time high for gold in sterling.

Prof

Hi Mike,

Given you are such a long term holder I am delighted that you have now decided to post. You are right that there are some great posters on here, even if, like in a close family, there are occasional spats.

Best wishes,
Prof

Gold back above $1530 and above this morning's opening although still c$6 under yesterday's close. Warrants us to be off a little but not this much. US markets on opening allowing we will hopefully continue to recover most of today's ground by close.

Supercharger,

You make me think of the beginning to Reinhold Niebuhr's 'Serenity Prayer':

God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.

Best wishes,
Prof

Illbetabuck and Calamari,

Thanks for swimming against the tide and posting on this board.

I am not yet invested but am tempted. I find your alternate views helpful as I seek to figure out whether the market has got this seriously wrong or whether this enormous fall is justified.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tonstril,
From memory the average price received for gold in Q2 was $1304 so on average we are likely to be slightly under $200 up so far, however if the POG stays above $1500 for the rest of the year then we could well be $200-250 above that and certainly above the average for H1 and also the $1250 that CEY were using at the beginning of the year in their estimates.
The bumper year was 2016 when we received 15.5 cents. That was a year with production above current (I think around 550k) but will POG significantly lower. A strong end of year dividend it therefore likely. Whether it will be as much as 10c we will see.

Best wishes,
Prof

... considering drift lower of POG.

Gold in GBP has hit 1257 in the last hour. A few months ago I was hoping it would go back through the 1000 mark!

Hello 140s. Nice to see you back!

Mick,
Easily done. US close has held above 1445 which is nice to see. Mizolgit is right about not getting carried away though.
Good luck to all for tomorrow,
Best wishes,
Prof