Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi Bleary,
The 10M is not £ but Egyptian dollars:

'Centamin, operator of the Sukari Gold Mine, announces today that it has committed 10 million Egyptian pounds ("LE"), equivalent to circa US$635,000, to support Egypt's response efforts to combat the coronavirus ("COVID-19") pandemic.'

As per above this is $635k or at current exchange rate about £500k. Given this will come out of costs, I presume, and therefore before profit share, this equates to £250k difference to shareholders. To put that in context, today's rise in gold of $40 is worth, assuming annual production about mid-guidance and therefore 525k oz, $21M or £17M. That is £8.5M after profit share. In other words the increase in gold is worth 34 times more than the COVID donation. I don't know for sure what the market was factoring in for today's CEY share price but I don't think the donation was the issue.
Best wishes,
Prof

Mr B,
Indeed it is. Gold now north of $1650 so lets hope we move up tomorrow. From the RNS it looks like Van Eck sold off some at the back end of last week. Could be the overhang of that hurting us. If so then once they have flushed through we should move up.
Best wishes,
Prof

Answer - NO

FTSE 250 up 5%
Gold up nearly 2%

... and here I am wondering whether we will manage to finish in the blue.

Centamin really is a law to itself!

The right thing to do from both a humanitarian and a business point of view. Why the former is obvious. Why the latter - well treat people well when they are down and they remember it when they are up.

Best Monday wishes to all,
Prof

Hi Supercharger,
I know very little about Keir Starmer but I would say don't underestimate him. You don't become a silk in your 30s and then DPP, from his very humble background without enormous talent and intellect.
Best wishes,
Prof

Tibbs,
I could be wrong but I think Tonstril may be pulling your leg and certainly about his age. In his post of 04 Dec 2018 her referred to his mother as being very much with us so I suspect he may not be quite as old as the last posts suggest:

'I have been in this stock for close to 20 years, owes me A$0.235 per share (I have 460k & my mum has 150k) you get severe ups & downs but they now pay a nice dividend & as long as you are patient you will be rewarded!'

Best wishes to all,
Prof

Can I suggest that everyone goes to BullionVault's web page and runs the 20 year gold price in GBP.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Hi Chdunn,
As we know, the CEY share price is a law unto itself. Like you I would like to think a rising gold price would result in a rise but hey. More generally I am struggling to see how with gold at $1600, oil sub $30 (and having been sub $20 a couple of days ago), a new CEO in place and a new Chair lined up, forecasts for 510k-540k that we are languishing in the low 120s. I can only put it down to:
1. general market nerves
2. a lack of faith in CEY after 2 years of missing initial forecast and prod problems
3. fear that POG will fall
Regarding 1 I fully get it although gold and gold miners should be a refuge from the turmoil. Regarding 2 you have to hope that this is behind us but we will need a few good quarters to change that sentiment and a year where we comfortable hit/exceed guidance. Regarding 3 who knows but there is an awful lot of instability at the moment and the throwing around of money to counter the eco impact of CoVid is going to play havoc with the balance sheets of already heavily indebted countries so I can't see gold falling too far.
Best wishes,
Prof

Crocked skier,

Like Bob says, a very warm welcome to being an active member of this board.
I look forward to exchanging views with you and hearing new insights.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Rebess, I agree that it is sensible to use yourCGT allowance. You do however need to remember the tightening of the bed and breakfast rules a few years ago. From memory you have to wait 30 days before you buy back otherwise CGT is due. I think however if you are working between different tax buckets you are OK so if you see the share to avoid CGT but buy back immediately in either a SIPP or ISA then you are OK.
PLEASE ALL BE VERY CLEAR THIS IS JUST MY UNDERSTANDING OF THE TAX RULES. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR SO PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH OR TAKE PROFESSIONAL ADVICE.
Best wishes,
Prof

My guess is he went for the CEO role, did not get it and felt he would rather leave than work for someone who beat him for a job he felt he could do.
I doubt the new CEO would have parted company of his own volition with his COO this fast. In due course maybe as he sought to bring in his own team but he would have wanted to keep strong senior players who knew Centamin until he got his own bearings.
For the time being our SP fast seems linked to POG and little else. Still hope good Q1 Prod combined with an eventual market realisation that low oil and high gold is fantastic news for CEY and others like us.
Regarding the rumours of CEY looking at other companies, provided they pick wisely that may not be a bad tactic in the current depressed share market. CEY is in the enviable position of having a pile of cash.
Best wishes,
Prof

Onwards and upwards after a good shakedown on Friday
or
Dead cat bounce before the next leg down?

Hi Dealts,
The optimist in me says it was just people taking profit after an exceptional strong share price recover over the week. I am hoping that with gold at this level we will see a return to the 130s on Monday although I suspect that will depend on broader market confidence. Interestingly while the DOW was significantly down for the day it came close the being positive in late hours. Let us hope that this too was just a pretty weekend sell off after a good few days.
Sold 40,000 late on Thu at 138-139 and bought them back within the half hour at 136-137. Was feeling rather pleased with myself for that quick £1k until yesterday's fall when I kicked myself at having gone back in. Hey ho.
With gold at this level and oil through the floor provided CEY can keep production going then it should be a magnificent year. I still would not be surprised to over £2 at some stage in 2020.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tibbs,
Agreed but then a couple of weeks ago we didn't have a market melt down with people desperate for liquidity and realising assets for cash where ever they could. Once margin calls are out and people are once again wondering where to park their cash then I would expect gold to come good. I am also rather hoping that Pierre Lassonde may be overly cautious on the trajectory for gold down to $1400 and that we could move back up from here quite rapidly. I guess that will depend on whether next week sees more market panic which is a possibility.
Best wishes,
Prof

Razors,
Not a problem. Had to read your first post twice to see why you were even apologising in your second. Nothing to worry about.
Best wishes,
Prof

As I have said before, when I have posted KWN News interviews, I know that KWN can be sensationalist. The following however is a very good interview with Pierre Lassonde (among other things former President of Newmont Mining).
https://kingworldnews.com/pierre-lassonde-3-14-2020/
He does say he can see gold falling back to $1400 in the short term based on liquidity but both says he believes it will be temporary and reminds us that oil has halved and that given oil is c25% of the cash cost of producing gold then it is worth around $100 an oz. He also says gold companies are currently priced for gold at around $1,100.
I well recommend listening to it.
Best wishes,
Prof

Theoretically this mean £ down which is good for CEY.

Although perhaps more for sentiment than global economic impact, but don't underestimate the latter, the cut should also mean gold prices up which is also good for CEY. I would also expect UK banks to get further battered on this news today.

Then again we don't seem to be living in normal times or even times where any of the normal rules apply.

Best wishes to all,
Prof

Khukov,

Why do you say that? If we had all got out when it hit 162 early on Monday then we would have made 12p more per share.

Prof

Confident that this is the reason for the fall in gold and that we should see a recovery/ rise in the gold once the initial panic selling in the broader market is over.