Member Info for ElProfessor

Hi Sotolo,
If was wise I would not be so concentrated in Cey (unless it keeps going up in which case I will forgive myself). Seriously over concentrated and a lot worse than your 50% other than on my SIPP where I am only about 25% Cey.
I have far more cash than usual in the portfolio at present and may continue to increase as I sell off a lot of funds. I really worry that we could see another significant downturn in the markets as the breadth and depth of the economic malaise becomes apparent. I have been day trading with some of the cash. For example in my SIPP I bought £50k of Cey when in fell to 163 last week and then sold it later that day for 169. Part of me is kicking myself for not having held on as I would be a further 16p per share up per day; part of me is congratulating myself that I did exactly what I intended which is a a quick in and out to take advantage of what I saw (righty in this case) as a temporary market anomaly. I suspect for the time being I will continue to use my spare cash in a similar way and reassess in the autumn (or earlier if the markets move significantly). Best wishes, Prof

Hi Sotolo, I got the dividend on Friday on both HL and AJ Bell which I use for my children's ISAs. I have not reinvested it in CEY simply because I am far too concentrated in them. Having said that I bought an extra 25, 000 at 127 a couple of months ago so I pretty pleased with how they have performed. Your borrowing to pre-invest the dividend seems to have been quite a coup. It is certainly good to see gold so strong and CEY on the up and up. Provide gold stays strong, and I expect it will, I think we have plenty more to go here.
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Sotolo,

No RNS yet but see the link for the full report:

https://www.centamin.com/~/media/Files/C/Centamin/documents/reports/2020/CEY%20RNS_FY19_FINAL_180520.pdf

Best wishes,
Prof

'buy' not 'but' in line 9.

It would be nice to have another day's close above 170, which at the moment it looks like we will get, just to confirm that we have broken that resistance level. Provided that is the case it looks like we are in blue water without further technical resistance until the Apr 2017 high of 191 (there was an intraday high of 193). Beyond that it may be that 200 is a psychological barrier.
Good to see that we are clear of 170 with gold around the 1700 mark. We may also get a lift from dividend reinvestments. This Friday (15th) is payment day however, as we tend to discuss on this board, how soon you get the money in your account is platform dependant. I am also optimistic for Monday when we get the 2019 full year results out. Clearly we know the top level numbers but the tone will be important furthermore at present the market seems to be looking to reasons to but CEY (much nicer than when it goes through cycles of looking for reasons to sell it which many of us will remember) so even a reiteration of last year's good news is likely to be positively met. We are also at the 1/2 way mark for Q2 and around 2/3rds of that has been with gold just above or just below 1700. Nearly all the rest had gold above 1600. This should be an excellent quarter for profit.
Still confident we will see 200 this year provided gold holds. Far more confident in gold holding at these levels than I am the stock market!
Best wishes to all,
Prof

2020 (Q1) $1587
2019 (Q4) $1487
2019 (FY) $1399
2018 (FY) $1267
2017 (FY) $1261

Gold has just closed April at highest monthly close since 2012:

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Centamin down 3.5p at 159.25 which is less than the dividend of c5p. Also interesting in percentage terms that we are down 2.15% vs a FTSE market down c2.6% which means we are performing better than market even before taking into account going ex-dividend. If we can close in the 160s that would be really nice but likely to depend on where gold goes in the next 90mns.

Hi Pipedreamer,
One of the most important points is that miners are a leveraged play on gold. The reason for this is that if it costs a miner $1000 to produce gold and gold rises from a price of $1,100 to $1,200 then the profit of the miner goes from $100 to $200. In other words gold has gone up c10% whereas the profits of the miner has doubled; the price of the share in the miner will therefore increase by significantly more than the 10%. The trouble is the leverage also works the other way. If gold falls from $1,100 to $,1000 the miner is now making no profit for just a 10% fall in gold. Clearly if gold falls to $900 then our miner is now making a loss.
With a mining company you are also exposed to all sorts of other risks and opportunities. For Centamin we currently have a court case still hanging over us, the risk of Coronavirus , a new CEO who may turn out to be a dud, a recent track record of poor forecasting... On the plus side we have a court case hanging over us which is depressing the share price somewhat and will therefore result in a rise if resolved, a new CEO, who may turn out to be brilliant, performance in Q1 which was significantly ahead of forecast, a forecast for full year of 510-550k oz which now looks like it could be exceeded, some good potential for new mines in both Egypt and overseas...
Hope this helps you better understand the advantages and disadvantages of gold vs a gold miner.
Best wishes,
Prof

Dasut,
May I recommend a pair of golden flip flops as a worthy purchase?
I have to say that I am tempted, when CEY hits a good price, to sell a large percentage of my holdings. Being so concentrated in it is great when it rises but really hard mentally when it takes a big tumble, something we all know it does pretty regularly.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo,
I share your worry the market bounce we are seeing could just be the prelude to a further deep fall. While my ISAs are very heavily biased toward CEY my SIPP is only approx a quarter CEY with the rest in funds. I am very tempted to sell a significant percentage of the funds and just sit in cash until autumn. CEY is harder decision. The scenario of a major fall dragging down CEY with it, albeit less in percentage terms, is very credible. It is also possible that we don't see the major crash, or not for a while, gold continues to rise, CEY exceed Q2 prod targets and raises full year guidance to say 550-580. In that scenario CEY would obviously fly. The other point however is CEY rarely straight lines up. As such I might also sell some if it climbs much more, hope for a small retrace and buy back in. The danger with that though is exactly what you faced the other day when you bought back in pretty much immediately.
Decisions, decisions,
Prof

Superb close for the week and even pretty good for the day when you consider gold came off the boil a bit.

Exciting times. Let's hope that the share price does not fall back the full value of the dividend next week or if it does it catches it back up quickly. With the current tail winds we seem to be enjoying I am expecting it to play out well.

Prof

HI Dasut,

Strange the attraction to round numbers - like you I had previously £2 in mind and like you I am now questioning whether that is too mo
dest. In the current climate there is also the question of where else would you put the money if you sold up. At some point the market falls will have run their course and the next bull run will be in place however I cannot help but feel that is sometime off.
Best wishes,
Prof

Mike,

Blimey - you have jumped to £5. I was talking £3.

You are right to get up to the £5 level I suspect we would need to be significantly more diversified and with production towards 1M oz p.a. Either that or gold in the $3,000 range that a few more credible institutions are staring to speculate about.

Even without getting ahead of ourselves I think we are in a good place with CEY.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Razors,

The period Nov 2015 to Aug 2016 is worth looking at.

On 12 Nov 2015 Cey was at 59.25p and gold was at $1087. By 19 Aug 16 it was 3 times higher at 177.2 with gold at $1350.

It would be wonderful, and in my view not impossible, for that kind of rise to be played out over the rest of the year which would take us just short of £3.

This in not a prediction however with the momentum behind gold and the economic mess the world is in it is something I like to think could well happen.

At what price do the old hands on here call 'golden flip-flop'?

Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,

193.something in April 17.

Prof

Morning Sotolo,
I partly agree, however the share price should, in theory reflect all known knowledge at that point about the future of the company. Given the change in ratios of the share with EMRA was already known it should have theory been accounted for.
On a separate note it is good to see us blue again this morning, dare we hope that we are clear of the sticky 164 you mentioned?
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
Interesting, I had not realised that. We certainly have the wind behind us although it is taking gold at over $1725 and all time record highs in euros and GBP to get us here. If gold slips we are likely to slip. If gold rises...
I also take great comfort from the analysts musings that Tibbs has kindly poster. Both Numis and Berenberg refer to Cey's past failures in forecasting and that continuing to prove, as in Q1 than they can once again do it right, will lead to a rerating. I also think they are both being conservative in their estimates of full year production. Provided coronavirus doesn't through a spanner in the works then I would expect the top end of 540 to be easily exceeded.
Guess you are glad you bought back in a couple of days ago (with you extra 79 shares in the bargain).
Best wishes,
Prof

Sotolo,
Was that a recommendation to Mr Bond or a thought for yourself. If the latter then remember 'No' you are already too concentrated in this share - think that is what you asked me to do if you were tempted.
Prof

Relieved.