Member Info for ElProfessor

Gold was $1742 at London market close yesterday and is hovering at $1730 for this morning's open a drop of $12.
Switch to GBP and it was £ 1378 at close and is hovering at £1376 at opening a drop of £2 or less than $3.

Let us hope therefore that CEY does not open too far down.

For once I have managed to stick to plan and have sold 70,000 at just over 168.
This is in no way due to lack of confidence in CEY just, as previously posted that I bought 40k at 184, then 40k at 171 and 40k at 147 and so 168 was my average break even. Only bought the 40k at 184 to day trade but had to hold when fell. The 171 purchase was then to bring my average down but the share kept falling. At 147 it seemed ridiculous so bought another 40k. The only problem was that this 120k purchase on top of my already very significant holdings meant I was too concentrated even for my liking. Glad to have got 70k of the 120k of shares off the table for no loss.

Best wishes,
Prof

Thanks Mike! Fingers crossed. Today certainly looks good so far.

You are welcome. A weakening dollar is typically a double edge sword. Gold is cheaper for the rest of the world to buy which is supportive of the gold price and hence supportive for CEY. A weakening dollar vis a vis GBP reduced the value in GBP of gold sold in dollars and hence is a headwind for profits.

Isapension, Scmdcyp,

Welcome both to the board. In answer to your questions, the next scheduled update is 13 Jul:
https://www.centamin.com/investors/financial-calendar/2020
This it the Q2 Production report (I think they are also doing the H2 update around then, it might be the same day). They have forecast this to be the low production quarter (108k oz from memory but someone might be able to correct me if wrong). If they exceed this, which personally I anticipate they will, then we could see a good response from the market.
The more fundamental point is that Cey disappointing over the past 2 years as it made lofty production claims which is then failed to meet. Q1 production was ahead of target and the market rewarded that. Another quarter that comes in ahead of forecast will continue to rebuild the confidence in the company. My own expectations its that they will the been very conservative in setting targets this year due to the previous misses and that we should exceed the forecast 520-540k oz. If we do that will come with a double reward - significantly higher profits (more Oz and lower AISC) and regained confidence of the markets in the company which means they will pay a higher multiple of earnings and profits for the shares.
As Tibbs says this is a very volatile share. We are currently sat in the low 160s but gold is in the $1730s. Personally I am bullish for gold over the year but a fall back in the next few days/weeks into the $1600s is, in my opinion, probable and a fall back to below $1650 is possible. The share price would fall back accordingly. If you read back a few posts you will see I commented that my thinking was, despite believing this will go into the 200s this year, to sell some on the next significant rise as expect we will see further pull-backs before breaking the 200s. If I do that I might be rewarded or I might miss out on the break beyond 200. In my case my thinking is influenced by the fact that I am heavily concentrated in this share.
As I posted recently I have called this share wrong (again) of late. I bought equal amounts at 184p, 171 and 147. As a result I have an average price for those purchases of 168. I will most likely hold till be get back to there and then sell some of this recent buy but let the others run.
Good luck in whatever you decide.
Best wishes,
Prof

Tiger,
A very good question. Markets are not behaving how we would expect to it is really difficult to call anything in the short term. Longer term you have to assume that all this QE/QE variants is devaluing currencies so gold should benefit.
Other than being a bit too concentrated in this stock I am comfortable being invested here. While I expect Cey to go up well beyond 200 I also expect it to continue the two steps forward one step back. I am keen therefore to take some money out on the next significant rise with a view to then getting back in on the next fall.
Let us see what tomorrow brings. I would hope an opening in the 160s provided gold holds in the upper 30s.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Tiger,
Yes I know. I am currently listening to the Powell live speech, he is currently on the Q&A. The key points I take are 'unprecedented times' and that basically there remain a lot of unknowns and we will get more info over the next few months. He is also focus on the gargantuan nature of the task to get all these now unemployed people back into jobs.
Gold seems to be holding in the $1725-$1730 range in response.
It will be interesting to see how it holds up overnight and tomorrow as the market digests his comments.
Best wishes
Prof

...$21 dollars in under 15mns.

Tibbs,
Very interesting point. Could indeed explain Standard Life selling even if they liked CEY as a company and thought it was undervalued.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Gnome,
'Kitchen sinking' it is certainly a common tactic when a new management team comes in. Actually I was surprised they did not do more it with the new CEO. I also suspect CEY have learnt their lessons from over promising and under delivering for two years which hammered the share price and that they have therefore been very conservative in their promises for this year. A Q2 that is strong and well above their forecast would indicate this is the case. I think that is what Rebess was getting at and I certainly agree that were they to miss their low forecast then it would most likely cause significant SP damage.
There remains a lot of nervousness amongst investors I feel with CEY given that with gold well over $1700 we are languishing in the low 150s.
Best wishes,
Prof

Morning Sotolo,
Brave is one word. I can think of others less complementary.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Rebess,
They have called down on Q1 so I would assume that is in the current SP. My personal, and complete unsubstantiated suspicions, is that they have deliberately been very conservative and we will blow well past that.
Here's hoping!
Best wishes,
Prof

Fresnillo up 4.23% which is more what you would expect to see with gold cruising rather than our somewhat disappointing 1.82%, particularly given the significant falls of late.
Bought 40,000 more shares this morning at 147.8 as the share price seemed to be lagging the move in gold however the share price has continued to do so since albeit I am delighted that the gold movement up has increased. Still seriously under on the last few buys. Bought 40,000 at av of 184.6 a couple of weeks back and then a further 40,000 at 171 last week. Am therefore needing the share price back to c167 to break even between these three latest buys.
Like a lot of us here I am kicking myself for not having sold out at 190. Have been surprised by the speed of the downturn in Cey for a fairly small movement down in gold. Guess it was a bit overextended on the way up besides we know CEY can move fast either way. Still expecting, or at least hoping, for a good Q2/H1 set of results mid July. Provided gold remains strong, which I expect, then the SP should move back up. Gold has been above $1700 for pretty much all of Q2 so the financials should be glorious particularly combined with weak oil. The current fall back in the SP should provide a stronger platform for the next move up. I am still expecting 200 to break this year although not necessarily in one smooth upward motion. Am also expecting equities to fall back significantly from here; my only reticence on that view is the amount of QE/QE variants being pumped into the system which has got to end up somewhere and equities and going to be home for at least some of it.
Best wishes to all,
Prof

Thanks Razor. Looks like a big hitter. Interesting that CEY are strenghtening with mining experience rather than financial. To me this suggests they are more focused on organic rather than acquisitive growth.

Happy Monday all,
Prof

Well for those of you new to the race and to Centamin she is a pure bred filly with enormous potential but that comes with a strong mind and a tendency to do her own thing. This she is proving once again today by falling with a surging gold price.

Would not be surprised to see a later comeback in the last 30mns of the day.

Best wishes to all,
Prof

A year ago it was hovering at $1280; today it is hovering at $1750.

Hi Mike,

If by HL you mean Hargreaves Lansdown then the dividend was paid into all our accounts (my ISA, my SIPP, my wife's ISA) on the due day - Fri, 15th May.

Hope that is helpful,
Prof

Sotolo, Just wish I had followed your lead on Friday and bought some HOCS. A disappointing outturn for CEY today, particularly with the FTSE up over 4%, however with gold down close to 2% from its high earlier I suppose that is understandable. It is also important to remember that we hit an all time gold high today in a number of currencies. Cey also just missed its multi year intraday day high of April 17 by 1p.
Let us hope that tomorrow we sail back into the 180s.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Casparoni,
You win some you lose some!
Good investing discipline that you didn't dig your heels in and stay out because it would have required you to pay more (done that). Glad it has paid off handsomely for you.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Sotolo, Will do. Can't believe, in a good way, that I am typing this but gold seems to be struggling to get through the resistance at $1764.20. Only a few months ago (well a year or so) I was wondering whether we would make it into 4 figures in £.
When do you reckon we will take out 200? Can't help but feel it is a when not an if.
Prof