Member Info for ElProfessor

Miz, Rebess,

I don't think any breach of regs will have necessarily occurred however it does seem poor discipline to have senior managers throwing figures around. It is ironic the the person doing so is Head of Internal Audit.

From the name I assume he is part of the family and therefore likely to be in the know and possible even acting on instructions.

All guess work of course.
Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Siko,

Great news: firstly because you are posting again and secondly because 540-550 should satisfy the market. I still think CEY will produce a lot more but are pitching a conservative figure after the mess they got into last year.

Happy New Year,
Prof

Gold pretty much recovered from Friday's reaction post US job figures. CEY initially strong this morning but how a bit soft. Hopefully just a mixture of taking a breather after last week and nerves ahead of Q4 Production. Let us hope that there will be no further surprise to the downside and that with this out of the way we can resume our upwards trajectory. If we do that and get positive vibes in Feb then we should be in for a good time given that gold seems to be once again in favour. For when 1300?

Snaggletooth,

Welcome to the board.

There is lots going on with CEY but hopefully most of the wrong footing of long term holders happened last year. I think you might be joining the fun at a good time.

Key items you will need to get your head around (cos you will see them referred to a lot on the Board):
-Court Case
-Diversification beyond Sukari (some excellent prospects)
-Production issues (including LHDR - Long Haul Drill Rig)
-Price of Oil
-AISC (all in sustaining costs)
-Succession planning of Chairman
-Poor communication by Company (ask Mr Tibbles)
-Tendency of Management to be over cautious in their forecasts except when they are not (mainly 2018)

and of course the perennial question of the price of gold (both in dollars and GBP).

Other than POG the immediate interesting question is what will guidance be for next year's production. Last year it was 580k but we have had three downward adjustments due to lower grade during transitional cut backs. Forecast for Q4 is 140k but originally expectations were 50k for Dec. Project original Q4 for a full year you get 560k, project original Dec for a full year you get 600k which, given we should be through poor grade issues and lack of production resilience, are not unreasonable. My SWAG (scientific wild a*se guess) is that management will call 560k for the year and it will gradually transpire, as quarterly production figures are reported that this is being exceeded, so will end up being around 600k (but then I am an optimist by nature).

Hope this helps.

Best wishes,
Prof

Rebess, Herbieridesage, Marmot,

Thank you very much for taking the time to answer my questions. It is much appreciated.

Best wishes,
Prof

Hi Rebess,

Thanks. My very limited understanding is that a gap is likely to be filled at some point. In this instance however the gap is enormous. Any thoughts about how a chartist would therefore say this should play out (notwithstanding fundamentals and a rocketing gold price)?

Thanks again,
Prof

There appears to have been a resistance line at 122.10 with not much resistance above. The closing price, taken from the uncrossing trade, is 122.15. This is looking really positive.

Does anyone who understands charts better have a view?

Best wishes,
Prof

Market,

And a very Happy New Year to you to sir.

Still love your posts.

Best wishes,
Prof

I guess I should't have written at 0959 that I was confident Q4 would be in line with forecast.

Up to 2% under is not a big short fall and at least the management is signalling ahead rather than subsequently. The disappointment for me is that every bit of news regarding the company (as opposed to gold generally) is to the downside at present.

The positive is that Q4 is being forecast at 135 to 140 and that takes into account weaker Oct and Nov than planned. Dare we hope that there was a bit of lower grade left to get through and we will now be up and away. Clearly a x4 of Q4 production as currently being forecast gives 540 to 560k for next year. Given Dec is forecast 45 to 50 that give a full year of 540 to 600K. In other words I am still confident 2019 should be a good year.

Best wishes,
Prof

Not sure it will automatically keep the currency and time period so you may need to adjust those yourself.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

This is worth taking a look at if you have not already:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

We have rarely been in a better place gold price wise over the past 5 years and are still heading upwards.
I am optimistic that Q4 results will be in line with forecast and that 2019 will see production shoot back up. I am therefore very positive about the CEY share price in 2019 although I admit I have been hideously wrong in the past.

Best wishes,
Prof

Well what a year for Centamin - the stock that has us jumping for joy and then holding our head in despair has continued to be true to form.
Everything seems to be lining up to make 2019 an excellent year for CEY. My only area of nervousness relates to something I would love to seem, namely a sensible outcome to the current Brexit impasse. If we see that then GBP will move sharply upwards which would be negative for CEY share price given it sells it product, gold, in dollars and we would therefore get less pounds in exchange, the currency of CEY's dividend. I do however expect Q4 guidance to be met, 2019 to be a very strong production year (my guess is a conservative call of 560k given this year's problems but production actual likely to be closer to 600k - Q4 output should help us work that out), and a strengthening gold price given that investors have realised just how much risk there is in the world and how the US economy is no where near as strong as some would like to suggest. I also suspect oil will remain weak which is good for CEY given it uses a lot and this will help drive down the AISC. A few bits of good news outside of Egypt could really help drive the share price north.
Happy Christmas to all on this great board.
Best wishes,
Prof

Picket,

There are a few posters on here that are always worth reading. Marmot is one of them.

Not sure what his day job is but I suspect it is something in this field and we reap the benefits for free.

Best wishes,
Prof

HI Somnamna,

A reduction in the FY dividend is pretty much a given, I suspect, given the fall in production and associated increase in AISC.

Prof

... at the daily low of 25250. Suggests we could see another down day again tomorrow.

Unfortunately gold well of today's high so not guaranteed to be a good day for CEY.

Picket,

Maybe but up 2.62%. I'll take that everyday.

DOW currently heading down again.

Reckon you could be right about us going through 105 tomorrow. Certainly hope you are.

Best wishes,
Prof

Picket,

HL showing a trade high of 105.16.

Prof

H,
Maybe but gold now only up .7% and CEY is up over 3%. That is over the 3-4 ratio I mentioned earlier so I think we are doing OK. The key question is of course if Gold taking a breather before shooting up as a result of equities taking a breather before plunging further or is it panic over and gold will once again be yesterday's news.
I think there is more to come.

Best wishes,
Prof

H (sorry your handle is too long and needs me to keep checking I am typing it right),
Nothing wrong with holding for months rather than years. Had I done the with Cey I could have made a lot more.
Best wishes and good luck,
Prof