Member Info for ElectricLion

The only thing I'm disgruntled about is that I didn't sell a chunk and buy-back cheaper. A number of reasons for that, including my own greed, I suppose you could call it, but also the intra-day RNS, right in the middle of an important work meeting, didn't help matters!

Today, risk is less, and the price is less, therefore the reward from this point, is greater, than 5 mins before the RNS came out, so, from this position, I'm not perturbed. A huge spike would have been nice, but I'm not sure I really believed it would happen. PIs can move quick. IIs move slower, but make no mistake, this is precisely the stage in a miners lifecycle where PIs sell, and IIs buy, so I'm sticking with it for the forseeable.

Sorry, sorry. It's my fault. I jinxed it! Doh!

Still, a a fall was on the cards, and it's still above $4K as things stand. Complete over-reaction by the equities generally, considering that most of them weren't pricing-in the elevated gold price fully to begin with!

"nobody wants to hang around for 2 years"

Strangly enough, most PIs lose money. I wonder if there could be a connection?

It's a monster, and showing no signs of slowing just yet. $5000 isn't really that far away.

Wishing my life away, but next quarter's results are gonna be good! :-)

Fair enough! We're all mostly on the same side, or we wouldn't be talking in the first place! lol

Ah, you're a gambler in other words. Figures. No insult intended, if you're happy with the level of risk you're taking, then I have no complaints, and gamblers can and do make a lot of money. But don't hold it against others if they have a different risk profile to you. I'm still young-ish (or so I like to think - early 40s), but I plan to be around for a while, and getting rich comes second to staying in the game...

HZM was a bullet I dodged, but only just. I had held shares but ironically sold out in favour of, what I thought were, riskier investments that would rise quicker! Ran out of money half-way through their mine build. Couldn't obtain additional funds to bridge the gap. The SP collapsed by 90%+ the day the news broke. A month or two later, the company was no more. See also Sirius Minerals.

To be clear, in case some folks get the wrong idea - I'm bullish MTL, and the gold sector in general, given the gold price. Doubling from here seems more of a formality than anything, and potentially much more in time. But risk is everywhere, all the time, and statistically, you won't survive in this game long-term unless you manage risk. Check out Nassim Taleb's 'Anti-fragile' and 'Fooled by Randomness' books if you're interested in taking the subject matter seriously.

There was an interview with Ross Beaty posted recently, worth going back and listening to it if you haven't already. He specifically calls out that mining is risky generally, and you should spread your risk over multiple investments. From construction delays or cost overruns, to local opposition, to government interference, to mining accidents. MTL has frustrations with the delays in permitting in the Philippines. The leader of Nicaragua is basically a tin-pot dictator, CNR suffered when there was a mini-uprising, not to mention the US sanctions. KEFI had some of their employees kidnapped by masked gunmen some time ago! (Fortunately all ended well, but it was not a nice incident regardless.)

None of these risks pertain specifically to MTL, any more than anyone else, but that doesn't mean that MTL exists in some kind of fairyland where risk does not exist at all. Keep your eyes and ears open and don't put all your eggs in one basket is not controversial advice, no matter what any heavily-invested individuals may say.

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gjz82wx4wo

The price of gold has shot up so far, so fast, that I think it's rise hasn't yet been factored into the SP of most gold equities. The market, perhaps rightly, is waiting to see if this is the new normal, or if gravity is going to assert itself to at least slow the rise of gold, if not reverse it.

But as I alluded to before, even if it does come down by quite a bit, it would still be above the kind of levels that most gold bulls and conspiracy theorists could only dream about, only a very small number of years ago. $2000/oz was seen by most as a bold prediction - any higher, you were barely even considered credible, and yet today's live gold price as I type is $4280!

The market is not rational, at least not in the short-term, but if gold stabilises for a while at these levels, let lone continues it's rather vertiginous ascent, then all gold equities have some way to go to make up the valuation gap, and that includes MTL of course.

Selfishly I would like the SP to stick at around these levels for a bit longer so that I can buy some more in due course, however I am also starting to get the feeling that the door may be closing on such opportunities... the market will re-price MTL according to it's income and potential at some point, the only question is when...

Ah, sorry, didn't mean to have so much whitespace. You get the idea though!

Rare to see such a perfect contrarian indicator:

27 Jun 2025 20:04

Price: 0.52

Strong Sell

18 Jul 2025 18:27

Price: 0.57

Strong Sell

2 Sep 2025 22:52

Price: 0.708

Strong Sell

22 Sep 2025 22:24

Price: 1.08

Strong Sell

8 Oct 2025 15:32

Price: 1.345

Strong Sell

Today 16:21

Price: 1.795

Strong Sell

You've got a nerve Rocket...

At least write something new FFS!

Nope, don't think anyone really did. Gotta be a big pullback at some point surely. Even if there is, it could lose $700/oz and it would still be at $3500/oz! Bonkers!

THX was the one that got away from me! Bought at 20p years ago, then sold some time later at a small loss as they seemed to be going no-where. Seemed to be a decent outfit though, so kicking myself now that I bailed on them! Ah well. KEFI should more than make up for the disappointment!

What a peculiar point of view. It's a form of mental coping strategy I suppose, after you've been hurt too badly, too many times? I feel for you. However, it's not necessarily an attitude that leads to accurate predictions...

For me, last week, this week, next week, doesn't even make much difference. I've already well in profit and expect to be further so shortly. There's a lot of paperwork and lawyers involved, so delays are to be expected, but we're building a literal gold mine, and the profits will be considerable for those with shares that have the patience to simply wait for the money to come to them.

Some short memories! It was only a couple of months ago that loads of folks were pencilling in 1.5p as a sell target, or at least a derisking point. How times have changed! We're here already, and sign-off hasn't even happened yet! That's very encouraging overall, but I'm not suprised that there's a fair bit of churn at 1.5p, as there was at 0.8p and as there will be at 2p. It's all good though, need sellers gone and new money to replace them in order for the SP rise to be sustained.

Except that of course, he didn't promise...

No. Divide 133m by 100 - that gets you 1%, which is 1.33m. Then multiply by 0.3.

£400k Caterham... check your decimal places!