Member Info for ElectricLion

Lots of them. Mostly look like sells to me, which would make sense given the SP action. JM clearing out? Impossible to know how many he still has, but in the past when I've seen large holders sell out, the selling tends to accelerate towards the end to clear the last few.

On the bright side, the SP should pop up a bit once the seller is clear, even with no further news.

In reality, your positions are quite close, however I feel I must side with Stephen on this one. The issue is that the stock market is not a spreadsheet, or calculator, but a shifting morass of humanity, where every emotion is displayed for the world to see!

I have fallen victim to this conundrum myself - you run the numbers, do all the calculations, and come up with a number, and then end up suprised and disapointed when the reality fails to match your spreadsheet. It's not because your numbers are wrong, it's just that the market is not rational!

The good news is that if you stick with it, and assuming your numbers are in fact correct, then the market should, all else being equal, tend towards your target. But 5p by Christmas, as wonderful as that would be, seems unlikely. Not because you're "wrong" Stebo, but rather because the market doesn't yet agree. It will, in time, but I'm prepared to wait at least 2 years for those sort of numbers. If they arrive sooner, that's wonderful, but I'm not counting on it.

AIM PIs (like Magic) who don't know what they're looking at. Doesn't matter. One day is neither here nor there.

At some point sure, just like everyone else. But the last interview doesn't make it sound like he's planning his exit strategy just yet. The word "vision" was used! That doesn't sound like someone getting ready to quit! He's gonna want to get TK into production at the very least.

Just filter the numpty. Clearly got nothing to contribute beyond what you can get from any LLM yourself, should you wish to.

Rather depends on your risk profile doesn't it nimrod. As you also pointed out in your previous post, the SP has done pretty well over the last year, so some reward has already been had for shouldering that initial risk. Today, as NickE pointed out recently, we are in the vicinity of the best risk-reward ratio in the entire mining lifecycle. It's not without risk of course, but then no mining investment is without risk. Plenty can and does go wrong, so some diversification is certainly appropriate. To catagorise Kefi as only suitable for a small punt however, rather suggests that either you haven't heard of, or don't value, the Lassonde Curve model, or indeed how large, medium and small mining equities typically behave during a gold bull cycle. Each to their own, but respect that there are those of us who do see the potential, and have placed their bets accordingly, and that while we could possibly be wrong, as we all can be from time to time, that we are not stupid.

Thanks for your valuable contribution. /s

Why do you care Bonkers? Serious question. You're out aren't you? Do you intend to buy back, or is that it now? If the latter, then wouldn't it be a better use of your time and energy to focus on something else in which you actually have a stake?

Indeed Shortarm. Even though the SP is off it's highs, it's still 138% year-to-date performance, with lots to look forward to. Call me whatever names you like, my bank account is all the healthier for the waiting!

I have very little interest in the AIM herd. PIs are, on average, pretty clueless. I respect a few individuals, but I don't rate the masses TBH.

But they are not the only kind of investor. The Lassonde Curve looks the way it does because this is precisely where institutional money begins buying, and perhaps HNW individuals who have more interested in maintaining their wealth without taking the huge risks that early PIs do. They don't need a big catalyst - they can see the value, they can run their own calculations, they know that money doesn't grow on trees, and they know that sometimes you have to sit on your hands and wait. So they will scale-in over time and that is how the SP will close the gap between here and whatever you calculate fair value to be, once full production is underway. Or, to put it another way, do you think that the SP will remain entirely static for 2 years, and then double, triple or more practically overnight on first gold pour?

1 year until La India production. Doesn't feel like very long at all, at least, compared to the time I've been invested in the project! (Or maybe I'm just getting old!)

Not at all Nigel, rather your "game theory" phrase seemed to be an "appeal to authority fallacy", certainly without further explanation. Suffice to say, there are a lot of your own assumptions inherent in your argument that may or may not actually hold. When all's said and done HAA will do the best he can in the circcumstances, which are complex and not entirely known to us, and so I agree any attempt to construct a mathematical model with so many assumptions and unknowns is not likely to be very useful.

Nigel - equally plausible, by your logic, is that we exceed 85%.

I studied game theory, along with many other branches of mathematics in my undergraduate degree. Enlighten me with the specifics of your thinking regarding the 75% number.

I'm a scientist S&R, I try to ask the right questions and not avoid the true answers, however uncomfortable they may seem. And a single day's performance is irrelevant, in every way, as you must surely appreciate. Good luck, no hard feelings.

GQ still going? I think, they think, that they (or more accurately ChatGPT) can run the company better than HAA! If only it were that easy! lol

To paraphrase even further - the *actual* question that was asked turns into - why is MTL not performing as well, (on a short time-scale) as (a few of) Stockopedia's so-called "Super Stocks", which is rapidly verging towards a pretty silly sort of question IMHO.

My intuition that StocksandRocks is "new" is not being disproved by further analysis. Further, as I believe I made clear, I did not intend that assessment to be an insult. If I had, I might have used the word "noob" at the very least! Feel free to take offense at the slightest percieved slight if you wish, but suffice to say, the debate here today, and this board most of the time more generally, is of a pretty mild sort compared to many, so if you're so easily triggered, perhaps it's best for you that you avoid all forums, and indeed any debate at all.

So, therefore, the original question - why is MTL not performing as well (on a short time-scale) as a handful of other stocks - is, as I originally thought, cherry-picked and unfair, really, given that the benchmark is already a selection of stocks that are (supposedly) better than average.

Yes, Metals Exploration (LON:MTL) is currently classified as a "Super Stock" by Stockopedia.

Stockopedia classifies stocks on a spectrum of styles (e.g., Super Stocks, High Flyers, Value Traps, Sucker Stocks) based on a composite score that examines a wide range of fundamental and technical measures, specifically Quality, Value, and Momentum.

Here is a breakdown of the key metrics for Metals Exploration (MTL) as found on Stockopedia:

Quality Rank: 92 (out of 100)

Value Rank: 65 (out of 100)

Momentum Rank: 94 (out of 100)

The "Super Stock" classification is generally applied to companies that score highly (typically above 60) for all three ranks, indicating a strong blend of quality, value, and momentum characteristics. Metals Exploration fits this profile with high scores across the board.

It's important to note that while the stock is highly ranked, Stockopedia highlights it as "Highly Speculative" due to factors such as having a single source of production (the Runruno gold mine in the Philippines) with a limited remaining life of "two/three years". Investors should consider this risk alongside the positive metrics.

What's the criteria to be a "super-stock"?

I have given several reasons why there may be a difference. Take them or leave them.

Statistically insignificant number of (and probably cherry-picked) comparisons and timescales (coincidentally, MTL is up exactly the same amount as the GDXJ over 6 months (63%) and beats it over the last year), consolidation after strong rise earlier in the year, possible large seller (Jim Mellon), typical AIM PI levels of patience before La India startup and other milestones (look in the mirror), slightly lower production this quarter owing to the effects of an artisanal mining accident (not our fault). None of which is within the company's control, or indeed anything to worry about.

Are you new at this? You sounds new. It's OK if you are, we all started somewhere, but you need to learn some a.) patience, and b.) that there isn't a conspiracy lurking around every corner. Sometimes, the market just doesn't make sense, for a while, and then it does, probably just as you've given up on it!