Member Info for eldorado1909

I will add given enough time - I'd say a year or perhaps more - the expansion will likely be sucessfull and the SP will be at multiples of the current SP. But people suggesting this is going to multibag or even rise significantly in the next few months are misleading people - perhaps hoping to get out themselves with a 5-10% profit on a short term trading fluctuation. The reality is that this is a long-term recovery play. It could take 3-4 years to see a really good return here, and you might not see any gains or even see a drop for many months .

The drop off in production is what is spooking people because it is making them think the field has peaked and is in rapid decline. The reserves are not the problem. There is close to a billion prospective barrels across our licence area. The problem is the board and administration seem inept at actually drilling our assets and maintaining production rates on the existing field. We have heard nothing on the partner drill to the west of platanillo and there are issues with indigenous communities on PUT-12 and 9 which border platanillo. And the expansion into the north part of platanillo with N-Sands has been underwhelming. Thats the reason the market is spooked, because the expansion plans have been completely ineffective at actually getting oil out of the ground. They were targetting 12k not long back, yet they can't even get it back to 6k where it was earlier in the year.

my purchase here once again. Bought at 3.76 thinking it would rebound to 4p again. No excuse as the chart is clear, buy at 3.5-3.6 and sell at or just below 4p. Not been a good share for me this one. Holding hoping it bounces off the 3.5p support again.

That is talking about drills. Its the end of October and they have managed to drill one hole so far in 2018. If you expecting a huge amount of drilling activity between now and the end of the year (in two months) I think you will be dissapointed. I think we will have the Indico-1 results perhaps another spud on CPO-5 but not much else. It all depends on how Indico-1 goes. A lot is going to come down to the Jan production figures. If they are good 6k+ then we should see a movement back up towards 20p, as long as the POO maintains its current level. But I don't see much upside between now and then personally unless Indico-1 is a real gusher. The 600bopd T Sands RNS had almost no impact on the SP whatsoever, I don't see that anything between now and Jan will be any more positive than that. The principle worry the market has is that AMER is running out of oil, and is not replacing it. That will not go until we either A) get drilling and hit targets or B) increase production.

Ammu. I have been in since I bought back in at 11.89. I just give my honest opinion. For now 11p support looks solid. But the board gave us an absolute turd to chew on by switching to quarterly ops updates, which means everything until Jan depends on how they word the Indico-1 results RNS. Since they made such a mess of N-Sands I am not exactly full with confidence. However, if you are willing to hold until next year then I imagine things will rebound, as long as oil stays around the $70 mark or above. My opinion is if you hold this long enough you will make a decent return, but it could take a year, and most PIs are not willing to hold anywhere near that long. Hence why I would not be surprised to see weakness again after Indico-1 results come in.

Add to that the fact that our genius board has imposed a 3 month news vacuum where we won't know how production is going and if oil keeps sliding it could end up under 10p.

If the past 6 months are anything to go by the most likely result I see is a poorly written RNS annoucing oil at indico but downplaying it followed by a news vacuum until January whilst the SP keeps slowly dropping. If you are not already in I reckon December time is a pretty good time to buy in. Perhaps January production figures will impress and then you'll see a sharp rebound.

I'll also add. If it's a gusher we won't get to see how much it's boosted production until Jan, which would have been a significant SP catalyst. Like I say, all the decisions they make are detrimental to the SP. They either have no idea what they are doing re comms, or they don't want the SP rising. Either way they are not working in the interests of shareholders and whoever has been signing off the RNSs needs to go.

If Indico-1 is a duster you're looking at perhaps 8-9p after the initial sell-off followed by a news vacuum till Jan thanks to the genius board who decided counting the oil produced each month and writing an RNS was too much work. If they had presented the "duster" RNS as a flow rate 600bopd hit we'd already have seen the high teens or perhaps even 20p on the back of it and I'd have another 10k in my ISA. The board are not fit for purpose and don't fool yourself into thinking they can't mess up the indico-1 RNS. From the way they've been acting it almost seems like their aim is to keep the SP down.

As I said in a previous post, the board presented it as a duster RNS with "dry" included. Perhaps I should have said another "duster". Just don't be surprised if Indico-1 results have another badly written RNS which spooks the market. It's been a pattern the last 6 months.

That's true, but it's been true since it was trading above 20p. For whatever reason it hasn't stopped the sp sliding. Would be a mistake to think it couldn't go lower on another duster. At least ypu don't have to worry about a placing here.

Why would a T/O happen at that price if the SP is trading at c. 11p? Honestly, the delusions on these bbs are hysterical. I'd say 20p would be optimistic in current circumstances, 15p more realistic. You do wonder what is going on with the board to allow the sp to slide as it has. Every RNS seems worse than the last. First the oil discovery which was presented like a duster RNS with the word "dry", then the announcement of a 3 month news vacuum from now on. They seem to have no idea what they're doing. They need to get someone on board asap who knows how to write RNS's for AIM or they are going to get taken out for a fraction of their intrinsic value.

Spiked, at close to a 52 week low? If this starts going against me I'll bail, but the way you're talking your agenda is pretty clear.

This has fallen back so much, bought two tranches to far, average 6.3p. Massive target to be drilled with spud at end of month. Fail to see how the gap to 8p won't get filled at some point between now and then. Worth 20x+ mcap on a successful drill.

I'd imagine the monthly results will see an uptick in the SP in the short term, perhaps 13p, however, in order for the SP to get back up to the 15p level it was trading at a sucessful result on the indico-1 well will be necessary. As I see it everything depends on the Llanos acreage before the 2019 drill programme is established and gets underway. Hopefully it won't take as long to get underway as last year once they decide what they are going to drill. For this reason I am out, as I think I have a better chance of making back the substantial losses I experienced here in other oil companies. Without N-Sands other than Indico-1 I don't see where the catalysts are coming from this year for the SP to recover. If you're willing to hold long enough, I'd imagine you will still make good money, as eventually they will get production and reserves back up, I can't imagine the management surviving 2019 if the drilling campaign turns out to be as ineffective as 2018. But you will probably have to wait a year or more.

It's a good short term trade from current SP for the monthly production figures, but in the medium term it's all on Indico-1. If Indico-1 is disapointing then where is the recovery in production coming from? Don't think Put-8 will be enough to plug the gap of declining production from platanillo, if it even happens this year, we have heard nothing on that front, and there are issues with indigenous communities on Put-12. N-Sands has completely screwed up the recovery and production plan, and nobody (including me) saw it coming. We all thought the 3 well programme there would be sucessful and immediately raise production back up to where it was before. Plenty of other oilers out there offering better upside than here on the basis of a binary bet on a single drill... The company is currently making a lot of money but production on platanillo is declining and over the last 12 months the board have shown absolute incompetence in rectifying it. They have only managed one drill all year, and it was a duster on a prodiucing field, they wasted almost a month on a workover which didn't actually result in any increase from the well. They also have absolutely no idea where to drill next, and by the time they put another plan together it will be 2019 and production will have continued dropping off. If Indico-1 has a good result everything will be peachy, but after the N-Sands fuck up I don't think anyone should assume the result is a foregone conclusion.

Without doubt its a big disappointment. But the company was already undervalued before the drill. Just on the current financials and existing production it should be valued way above the15p level it was trading at. I haven't sold any, as I fully expect it to return to the same 15p level. Rex will stop selling now which will decrease the downward pressure. He won't start selling again until it trading at 15p again. We have another well spudding in October, which potential bopd is more significant. We'll have to wait and see how they change their expansion plans on the back of this setback. I would like them to commit to drilling the big target on the border between put 9 and 12 asap. No reason to think it won't bounce back as we've seen over and over, especially if oil keeps rising. Remember regarless of what else is happening we're producing c. 5kbopd which represents 400k of revenue every day. We also have s significant cash pile and are increasing it every day.

It's a big booboo to drill a duster on a producing block, but you're wrong to say the production doesn't matter, there is enough oip for quite a significant period of time and plenty of virgin territory to be explored in put 9 and 12 next year. Remember oil is over 80 and the current operations are producing cash at a rate of knots. Its bounced back time after time after these set backs. Rex doesn't seem willing to sell under 15p so will bounce back to that level once those selling into this news are out.

Will bounce back up to 15p shortly on the basis of current production and indico. Obviously a big disappointment. Sounds like they are drilling down further so perhaps a pleasant surprise later but not holding my breath. Certainly no sense in selling in the 13s on the basis of one setback.

It's been thst way for months. I'm surprised not even the interims have broken the log jan. All that is required is patience. Eventually the SP will move in line with the true value which is currently over 20p imo and will top 30p with a decent result from N-Sands which will boost production significantly if it goes to plan.

dropped down to my 160-170p target. Still looking on a downtrend though.