Member Info for eldorado1909

Sold yesterday at 4.65p so been OK so far, but I agree I wouldn't usually be jumping about like this but oil price action is crazy right now.

back in at 4.45. Seems like oil is bouncing after yesterday, if it stabalises here we should see a decent movement back up to 5.5p. Hopefully I don't get caught out with another oil price crash after a fake rally.

the person I was responding to the post from.

a bounce here. Quite amazing how this has bucked the massive drop yesterday. Perhaps I am finally going to make some money here on my 4 year old investment. If the production starts on schedule and we start producing what we all hope as long as oil doesn't drop much more we could be seeing £1 here when we get the first oil production RNS. Would be a nice reward for my patience here, having held the shares from 40p all the way to 9p through the last crash.

There are some lovely trading ranges going on here the last few months. Look at those predictable spikes. It's moved up and down 10-20% several times the last 3 months. Pity i've mistimed every purchase here since I got my original trade from 180p-250p earlier in the year. Got to be some money to be made here from current SP if the oil price stabilises. I myself am all in cash until things settle down.

I was bullish on this until I read the article back in August. I almost sold out everything then at 15p (at a profit), but stupidly stayed invested because I was emotionally attached to the massive profits i'd imagined making at 20p+. Then N-Sands happened and everything changed, because combined with the legal dispute it has completely messed up the expansion plans. The only way I see these 20p+ predictions coming true is if indico-1 is like 10-20k which would see the production go up 50-100% overnight. If it is just a regular well like expected (5k) then the 1.5k will just about plug the decline we've seen in production this year. But even if that happens, you'll still have a chance to buy in at 8am, and if you know what the drill means to the company what need is there to be invested now? If it's anything less than this then the SP is going to drop more, because the market has already priced in the expected result for indico (5k) just as it had already priced in a sucessful 1k well at N-Sands, hence why the SP dropped despite the annoucement of a 600bopd well on Platanillo.

The problem here is Amerisur is running out of oil on Platanillo and production is declining quite rapidly, and the board have shown no capacity to plug the deficit. Until that changes the weakness in the SP will continue. They need to get drilling urgently, but because of the legal case - based on what el espectador reported - they have nowhere to drill.

The problem is you are emotionally attached to this share. Thats why you dislike anyone saying anything objective or at all negative.

How absurd is it that yesterday I was attacked on here for daring to suggest that the SP of an OIL PRODUCER may drop in the midst of an oil price crash...

Rhodi, I said yesterday that if Indico-1 is a good result then we will see a decent uplift. But the idea that this is heading immediately to 20p+ is not realistic. That was a posibility before N-Sands, if that had been a good result, a 1,000bopd well with a concrete path for expansion (more wells in the north of Platanillo) then we could have had enough increased production by the end of the year to see up at 20p. But things have changed since then, and as I have said before it is now a binary bet between 8p if indico is a duster and perhaps 13p if Indico is good. And quite honestly, if anyone bases their investment decision on what a person says on a bb they shouldn't be investing in the stock market. All I am doing is giving my opinion, and to date my opinion has been the one which has proven correct with regards to the SP movement.

up quite well considering the drop in the price of oil.

make that 10.02p

These are issues we have absolutely no way of knowing anything about. Any talk of this is speculation. All of what I have presented are material facts which are detrimental to the share price, and explain why we're currently sat at 10.14p

They have absolutely no way of knowing when they can initiate civil works on the block. It could take years to just get the legal case resolved for all we know. N-Sands was a bust so they can't expand into the north of Platanillo, so extra production now depends on third parties in PUT 7 and CPO5.

So you are still expecting these blocks to be drilled soon then? They were supposed to be drilled in 2018, and we've heard absolutely nothing on prep work in them such as roads, they are total virgin territory. The fact that they have done some seismic work (presumably illegally based on the article) is very different than actually getting diggers in and tearing up the indigenous community's land for roads and pads and then bringing in massive drilling equipment.

I don't expect any civil works on the blocks to be initiated until this legal dispute is settled, and nobody knows how long that could take. It will eventually be resolved because the national government is stronger than the local authorities, but expecting a quick return here is going to end in dissapointment. In my opinion you will need to wait 3-5 years to see this company fulfil its potential. In view of this problem I am not expecting works to drill PUT 9 or PUT 12 to be commenced until 2020. So it may take until late 2020/early 2021 for decent production levels we were expecting to see at the end of 2018 to come on stream.

I would add, if this company had not been so spectularly slow in doing what it planned this year the civil works and pads on the blocks would already have been completed by the time the ruling would be made, and the only potential delay would be getting approval to drill. As it is - if we are to believe el espectador, and I see no reason why they would lie - they can't do anything at all on the blocks until this case is resolved. And as we saw with N-Sands, the climatic factors resulted in the civil works taking the best part of a year to build. The access roads to the pad on PUT 9 and PUT 12 are much longer and thus we should expect them to take as long if not longer to complete.

So in view of this, when can we expect the company making resources on these blocks to be drilled.

This is why I am down on the short term prospects of this company. We are probably close to the bottom right now, but I don't see anything coming on the horizon which is going to reverse this decline in the SP short term, and those who are making people think this is suddenly going to multibag are doing everyone a disservice imo.

My view is much more realistic, and on a long enough timescale positive and bullish. I still foresee this hitting 30p+ eventually, but it is going to take years.

My point is on the basis that there are several things I have seen which quite obviously have a massive impact on the long term prospects of the company which no PI on the board has any idea about.

https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/medio-ambiente/petrolera-britanica-pierde-batalla-juridica-frente-al-pueblo-siona-del-putumayo-articulo-807966

Back in August they were basically ordered by local government to cease operations on PUT 9 and PUT 12. These were supposed to be the next targets following the N-Sands. That means Amerisur have nothing to drill in 2019, and they can't drill any other blocks because access to them is through PUT 9 and PUT 12, which they are now ordered not to do anything (including building access roads) on.

If any of you read the local press in Spanish you would have been aware of this fact three months ago, rather than relying on a random like me posting it on a bb. So yes, considering I haven't heard a single person on here discuss this major issue to our operations, I would say that means I know more about Amerisur than any other PI on here.

https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/medio-ambiente/amerisur-no-hemos-perdido-una-batalla-juridica-articulo-816768

Amerisur are disputing that they lost, because the way Colombia's legislatory system works there are competing forces on the national and local level. This order seems to have been made by a (likely left-wing) judge in the local area, whilst Amerisur has the support of the national government (right-wing). Who knows how long this will take to resolve? What I think we can say with confidence is that the original plan to drill PUT 9 and PUT 12 which have the biggest resources and the most company making potential are unlikely to be drilled anytime soon.

So, in view of this, once the CPO5 campaign is over, what catalysts are there on the horizon for 2019 to see an increase in the SP? In order to see the big gains most are hoping for here the company needs to double production as they originally planned to do, and they can't do that without accessing PUT 9 and PUT 12.

In addition, I would also point out that when Duque and Petro were being elected nobody on the board seemed to understand that Petro was incredibly antagonistic towards foreign business interests, and that what was on the horizon was a potential apocalyptic Venezuela type situation. Petro was an associate of Chavez before he seized power there.

https://elnuevopais.net/2018/06/18/202384/

Another issue is that no-one seems to realise that things always take longer than planned in Colombia, and as such any plans for development made by the company (which is run by Colombians on the ground other than Wardle) will always run behind schedule and should be taken with a grain of salt.

So yes, as harsh as it is, I would say that very few on this board have much understanding of the environment Amerisur are working in, and as such my contributions to the board are valuable.

It's going to be a bad one tomorrow. Oil dropping like a stone. I only ever seem to lose money on this share.

I'm not hammering anything. My opinion has absolutely no impact on the share price whatsoever. I had given my opinion, that (before the oil crash the last couple of days) the sp would test 10p again and then bounce. You were of the opinion it would continue rising. Right now I honestly don't know what will happen as the strength of this crash has caught me by surprise. But let me ask you one thing. Who most accurately predicted the movement of the SP? Thank you.

Have you ever been to Colombia? Have you ever been to the putumayo? Have you ever been to the Llanos. Have you ever tried to do business in Colombia? Do you know anything about Colombian indigenous communities? Do you know anything about the Colombian legislative system? Do you know anything about Colombian politics? Do you know anything about the Colombian peace process? Do you know anything about the Colombian climate, or transportation issues? Do you speak Spanish fluently? Do you regularly read the Colombian press? If you answered no to any of those questions I know more about Amerisur's business than you.

I sold every oiler I hold apart from HUR which I've been in since 2014 and held through the last oil price crash. I post here because I know as much about AMER as any other PI out there. I don't post on bbs where I don't know anything about the company. You'd have to be absolutely insane to be holding any oiler right now. Brent has dropped another 2 dollars since I made my last post a few hours ago. Trump clearly wants to punish Iran and gulf states by pushing down oil. It will be probably be short term but will you have the balls to hold a share right to the bottom. I held HUR from 40p to 9p last time. Never again. And people (including me) were talking just like you guys at the start of the collapse last time. It happens when you become emotionally attached to a share.

My decision has nothing to do with UOG, it is solely based on the scary drop of the price of oil. The fact UOG is actually up today is probably a bullish signal, but I lost a lot in the 2014 oil crash and can't afford to do so again. If the oil price stabalises I'll probably be back for a trade.

I was like you when I first arrived here. But the day to day reality of this share brings you to our way of thinking relitavely quickly. I can remember so many times that this has had a good day and been up by a few percent then is dropped in the close by a few tiny (£50) automated sells which take out the bid. I don't buy that this is dropping because of REX its not actually the big sells or the rafts of medium sized ones which have being doing the damage. I watched L2 intensely for months whilst I was invested big here, and it was the same story every day. The damage was always done in the last few minuted before close. I noticed something similar happened yesterday. The trend on this is quite clearly down, and it is going to take something very big to reverse it. I previously thought that would be the final results in early 2019, but with oil dropping so fast, those may well be irrelavent before too long. They aren't going to be creating cash for much longer if oil keeps dropping at this rate.