Member Info for eldorado1909

Ammu current p/e based on 2017 results is 25; consistent with sector average, and projected profits for 2018 will make p/e at current MCAP 8-9x. This is an oil producer, not a small cap explorer. Its already producing 5kbopd. Business has $41m+ cash pile, has c. 130m revenue per year, and at $70 oil it is cash positive and projected to have c. $31m of post-tax profits and >$60m EBITDA 2018. The drill campaign is to increase 2p and production, and infrastructure is in place to start pumping oil direct to Esmeraldas on the pacific coast from day 1. FACT.

With all due respect, you've got no idea what you're talking about. Stick to the all or nothing small cap explorers.

Lets look at a peer comparison. AAOG was valued at £20m with 150bopd and one drill which may well only end up only producing 200bopd and its cash reserves will be exhausted by the end of the drill. AMER is valued at £176m is funding its drill campaign from revenues, has a $41m reserve which will not be touched, has 5kbopd or c. $11m of revenue per month, 1.3bn barrels onshore unrisked and three drill campaigns. The first targetting CPO-5 is targetting 37.7mbo the second n-sands is targetting 40.58mbo and the third Put-8 targets 16.27mb.

#AMER is the place for a relatively risk-free pre-drill play over the next month with the added bonus of massively improved profits to be announced in the interims.

AMER = #nobrainer - and the smart money which chased up MATD, JOG, AAOG and others pre-spud will be arriving here in the coming weeks.

Basil, your posts are basically incomprehensible to a normal person, hence why I asked previously why you structured them so - strangely.

Terecay and Tacacho have massive resources - they may indeed be 1bn barrels onshore, which would under normal circusmstances be enough on their own to see our SP at £1+ per share. However, presumably you haven't looked at a map. They are in the middle of virgin rainforest, and we don't even have another licence area bordering them which we have explored with existing infrastructure to link up to. They won't be feasible for exploration for perhaps a decade. They have no road, air or fluvial links, and there is absolutely no way to get a rig in there, or anyway to get oil out. Terecay would come onboard first since it borders 9 and 12, but 9 and 12 could take five years or more to fully explore (as the smaller platanillo block has). Platanillo is basically right next to the biggest oil town in the Putumayo (Puerto Asis) and for this reason has been relatively easy to explore. Put-8 is easy to explore for the same reason. Now we have infrastructure in place 9 and 12 will also be quite simple to explore now, hence why they present such massive opportunities for upwards share price momentum with the drilling campaign on them likely to kick off in q1.

We haven't even started exploring 8, half of platanillo is still left to develop, and put 9 and 12 have perhaps 10 times the resources of Platanillo, so I really have no clue why you are even talking about Terecay and Tacacho. You clearly have little understanding of the situation on the ground in the Putumayo.

The tactical trading going on in the last ten minute auction period pretty much every single day is holding down the SP and stopping people making money. Perhaps your motivations for investing here are your ability to live out fantasies about exploring Terecay and Tachaco five-ten years in the future. But for 99% of the people on this borad they are interested in things which are affecting the SP right now and in the near future which will influence whether they make money or not.

My view is the following: the interims will be release in mid September. They will be overwhelmingly positive because of the price of oil. If they meet expectations in forecasts I have seen they should result in a rise to an SP of 20-30p, since they will suggest a p/e for the year of about 8-9 times the current sp in a industry where the standard p/e is about 25. The volume which will come in on that news will be such that whoever is currently buying during the day then tactically selling in the closing auction will no longer have the firepower to keep the SP down and it will rerate. However, once volume drops off again they will be free to start doing the same thing and without additional positive news to bring in volume (like drills being sucessful) the SP will likely drift back down again until y/e results in spring (as has happened continually over the last year).

can you please address the issue of the ridiculous closing auctions?

BasilHope do you have something to say about these tedious closing auctions/a trades?

Should have closed about 3% up today and been set up for a test of 15p tomorrow, but now it will open in the mid 14s again and we will have yet another day of the same. On Wednesday we should have been flat or slightly up but ended up 6.5% down because of the contrived a trade sells at the end of the day.

here is so brazen. The tiny sells every day in the VWAP period, the ridiculous auctions which end with a closing price below any trade made all day, the a trades which sell straight onto the bid and strategically take out support in the last few minutes. I've seen them tick down the sp close to a penny in the last few minutes on a day with positive buying and price movement all day by just selling directly onto the bid, no more than a 10,000 shares or c. £600. Pi's don't buy or sell onto the bid / ask but by quote and hence have nowhere near as much impact on the price as the bot traders. I realised today that the closing price is worked out by the VWAP of the trades in the last 10 minutes, or else the last automated trade which ocurred. Whoever is doing all this clearly wants it around here, because they will not allow it to breakout above 15p and they stop it whenever it looks like it may go below 14p. A few days back there was almost no support above 13p whilst the sp was in the low 14s and I was convinced they would take out the support at close to knock it down further but no a trades came in that day. I have no idea why someone would want to keep the SP at this level but having watched l2 for weeks the evidence is absolutely conclusive. This will stay at this 14-15p level until a major catalyst comes in, meaning whoever is supressing the SP currently is unable to impact the support with beer money trades. Hopefully the spud RNS will be enough, if not the interims which will show significant profits should finally overcome this tedious pattern of unrepresentative auction calls at the close.

else noticed that EVERY DAY bot trades come in selling directly onto the bid and ticks it down on a few beer money trades? Check the trades in the last half hour, look how fast it dropped. Look normal to you? Then a UT of 14.00, lower than any trade all day? Come on! This is not normal.

Basil, what the hell is going on here?

has pretty much gone as I expected since the RNS. looked to form a base at 180 but thats broken now. I suspect it will go into the 160s. Will look to re-enter around 160-165.

the hype here was greater than the reality, and now the news is out the SP has cratered. Now effectively a drill play for later in the year. Since there will not be news for a while on that front almost certain to drift futher down. As with all small cap explorers there is the constant threat of a placing so its definitely a sell currently imo. My be worth a look if it drops below placing price. As always the placees have ramped the hell out of this and scurried away with their profits after making a 20% return. Will need the pre-drill action to get back to previous highs imo.

Have you noticed the negative posters have now shut up? That always happens when a share bounces and they realise they are not going to get in any lower and buy in. Having bounced off the bottom the only way is up now! As everyone has said, just on the basis of our revenues which will be released to the market in sept we should be 30p+. We all know how much they are making, because we all know the monthly production figures and the current price of oil. Revenue has grown massively since last year, and a big profit *will* be reported in the interims based on how much they have been producing imo. If you don't buy in now with these crazy lows with all the positive news which is coming you will be kicking yourself when the price is 100% up from here. Just look at what happened to RKH earlier in the year to see the potential. It did 100% in a few weeks on nothing more than a sentiment reversal.

Tick, tock. ;)

This is also my biggest holding Hull. I can't see anything in the AIM oil space with anywhere near as good RvR. I see 20p+ as absolutely nailed on on nothing more than the interims. 30p is very likely by year end imo when you consider all the other positive news.50-100% return in the next 5 months with very little potential downside (5 year low right now). Opportunities like this don't come along all that often, and once it starts moving it will be up above 20p within a few trading sessions.

Tick, tock.

Has fallen back even further than I thought it would. Good buy in price now but don't get carried away by the hype next time it gets ramped up. Shame I don't have any cash available at present.

Rudey, don't know if you've noticed, but everybody who has taken positions here over the last few months FOR BISCATHORPE have left. Some left after DB's terrible interview a while back after submitting the planning app. Some have left in the last few days. Thats why the SP is down! The only people that are left are either long-termers who have blind faith in this business and heavily underwater, or people that opened up such a big position that they can't get out without crashing the SP to 0.05 or less. Regarding Biscathorpe my point was that they should have signed a rig contract, or just given some information regarding when it would be drilled rather than DB get on a public interview and say openly 'I don't want to say near-term' regarding the bisca drill. If they had done that the SP wouldn't be 0.08 right now.

Mixter and Rudey, take the blinkers off for a second. The council are to blame for the appeal, but who allowed the permissions to expire by getting the app in late? It was supposed to be completed months ago. They also managed to put the wrong fooking map in the pack! More importantly they put all their eggs in the Wressle basket and left Bisca - which was the major SP catalyst - on the backburner. So here we are with SP at an all time low, and we have no idea where we are with Bisca.

We may well get an RNS to that effect with production figures on Monday. That should surely reverse the current SP decline.

This is starting to be attractive around this price, although I will wait to see if 50p comes before comitting.

is pretty much going as I anticipated. Will look to re-enter between 160-170.

We're all aware of that. The issue is that the incompetence and toxic nature of the council makes one doubtful the result of the main application will be any different.

from another tick down, next leg on bid is 3.4 currently. There hasn't been much support here ever since it broke through 4p.

As I have said before elsewhere, incredible hypocracy from these people. Drinking water from a plastic bottle sounds about right. The greens also have no objection to filling England's green and pleasant land with housing and asphalt. No other reason to object to a small conventional well than not wanting investors to make a buck. I note 'rich oil companies were mentioned'. I wonder if they realise how many of the shareholders are small time pis investing their pensions through a SIPP for a nice little nest egg for their old age. They prefer to give their money to rich ME oil sheiks! Not happy with the council behaviour at all!