Member Info for eldorado1909

Very low volume at the mo though IG. Think there is still time to take a position here.

You have a very strange way of structuring your posts, and I am not sure that it generally helps to get your point across or attract new investors to AMER.

Basil, take a look at AAZ chart. I was in that from Summer 2015 at around 4.75 when the company was in a similar situation. Production figures showed it was improving by this point, yet it didn't start moving properly until May 2016 when the annual accounts were released. Once that happened it six bagged in 3 months. The market doesn't give a damn about interims for a small cap company. They never give enough detail to do a proper analysis anyway. They care about accounts which have been signed off by accountants and auditers. Plenty of near term catalysts to move this higher such as production figures, the workover, the 3 drills etc. But the thing which will really get this moving is the annual accounts. Those will be out April 2019, so I expect a rerate to happen around that time. If there is a decent profit posted and decent cash flow - which looking at the oil price I can't see how there couldn;t be - then this will be much higher than it currently is. If you take out the cash which end of last year was $30m then the company is currently valued at just above £150m. Then there is all the infrastructure in place, the masses of resources throughout Colombia which haven't been drilled. I would be astounded if this wasn't trading in the 30s following the release of the accounts in April.

It could just be an II closing a position or making it smaller.

Any of the three wells being drilled in the next few months would be enough for a serious rerate if they come in. Can't think of any other share out there where you get three bites of the cherry in H2 with absolutely no chance of a placing.

alot of bitterness, negativety, resentment on this BB, as you would expect on a share where the shareholders have been repeatedly shafted. However, the asset Bezant holds is enormous, and any sniff of a buyer would mean all shareholders, no matter what their average was would get a tidy profit from the investment. Obviously this is a highly speculative investment, and in the long run it may not come off. But to me a share with a chance of a 10-20x return on sucessful disposal of the asset is a decent punt. It doesn't take much to get this moving, and I suspect this will catch the eye of investors before long. Every AIM share has its time in the sun at some point, even the crap ones.

worth of delayed sells came up after hours. The last time I remember trades this big coming up was when it was in the 3s after which is rapidly moved up to 4.8.

AMER is currently producing 5,000 per day onshore, mostly in the back of beyond in the amazon. Take a look at the MCAP and compare it with AAOG's to see the potential upside of a Djeno strike. AMER had to build a pipeline across a national border to sell their oil, AAOG's field is only a 40km drive from the national port. upside from current SP is 10x conservatively on a 5,000 per day oil strike.

Even at current production figures the company is still undervalued though, especially with the current price of oil. Look at the rest of the producing sector, even the giant producers have gone up 20% with the oil price rises. This has moved almost 30% lower since the start of the year despite the oil price rising.

To clarify, when I said similar situation I just meant that the improvements weren't visible to the market. Amerisur's financial situation is great - creating cash rapidly through operations.

buying on the ask this afternoon with no movement in the SP. Yet more selling from whoever is exiting the share (must be an II because of how long they've been selling). Just a matter of time until they run out and the brakes come off.

tick tock ;)

I agree that the factors you mention are good, but in my opinion the reason the SP hasn't improved is because all of those external factors will only influence the price once investors see the final year end results. Until then its all just speculation. I was in a company in a similar position years ago (AAZ). It was in a dire financial situation, and the previous years accounts showed it was close to insolvency. However, external factors like the price of gold (its a gold miner) were improving and it was clear from the quarterly production figures (which were increasing) that the cash position of the company was likely improving. However, this wasn't priced in until the final accounts for the year confirmed what anyone with a good understand of company finances could see a long way off. Thats also the case here, and thats what makes this a great opportunity for a turnaround play IMO. If you add to that the drill campaign - which I haven't heard anyone in the AIM oil space even discuss, with the exception of Garyn, I think that this will perform very well in Q3 and Q4 and even better in H1 2019 when the annual reports are released. Just an uptick in production figures in the next update will be enough to get it back up to 20p IMO and with the drill campaign ontop I think it could go a lot higher.

more here today. Great play for Q3 IMO. It's already significantly undervalued on production, revenues and reserves based on the current price of oil. Add into the mix a drill programme - which nobody on AIM seems to be aware of and I think you have the basis of a very decent rally back to 20p+

a good sign when people who pretend to not be invested or interested in investing in a company suddenly pop up out of nowhere on a BB to talk down the prospects.

This is looking quite attractive now at this price IG.

a look through the portfolio and accounts to have a more thorough investigation before investing more here and shocked what i've found. This is shockingly undervalued! even more so considering the increase in price of oil since last year. End of 2017 the company had more than $30 cash, was producing over 5k barrel per day, and has a ridiculous amount of resources throughout Colombia. Since then the peace has been signed and Petro was routed in the election, burying any fears over expropriation or difficult working conditions. Going to be spudding three wells, all of which could increase the production levels in the near future. The RNS from earlier in the year said production was over 6k per day, and obviously thats going to be selling for much more than last year. The revenues are without doubt going to be higher this year than they were last year, and thats without even considering the Llanos block.

Absolute steal at this current SP.

MATD will drop significantly on SL duster, hence why i'm keeping my powder dry re MATD. I'll buy heavily into that drop if it comes. Agree the second target is the decent one, hence why a selloff on duster will be such a great bounce trade.

Dunno if I agree. The seismics have been built up alot, and thats what most people seem to be interested in here. If they turn out to be a damp squib it may drop back down close to the placing price. Obviously if they are good you'll see a decent rise. Don't really see the reason you would buy in now above 5p when you could have bought in in the mid 4s not long ago. I'll wait until the price settles like it did last time.

I genuinely didn't know. The way it was presented in the tweet it sounded like it was a recent thing. Just because I've sold out doesn't mean I don't have an interest in what influences the price. I will be looking to buy back in once it settles, and it's important I understand all the relavent information to do so. I was never really in this for the drill, more the seismics.

I don't hold O&G shares long-term anymore because of being burn't before. I just trader the fluctuations.

Hi SBB1, yes, the MATD drill campaign is interesting, but my point is all the low risk campaigns have been delayed. MATD is a wildcat driller, AAOG is derisked by existing production. COS on the MATD drills is very low - wheras COS on R1/R2 is very close to 100%.