Member Info for eldorado1909

Watching EDR for a while and bought into this latest sell off for the Bisca spud. UJO has risen significantly more than EDR on the back of bisca and expect EDR to catch up eventually. EDR is a very unpopular and unknown share with aim and for this reason I think it's a better play than UJO which has lots of traders attached to it who tend to stifle rises by selling into (positive) news.

Strange despite this news its only just above where it was a few weeks back when it hit 12p on the ask on nothing. This one continues to defy logic.

Done some research, and this block seems to be accessible from platanillo without going through the indigenous lands. Presumably if a well has already been drilled there there is already vehicular access for a rig. In view of this, and the problems with n-sands and other blocks i'd say they ought to get drilling it asap. Very good news. But there is no point accumulating blocks when they're incapable of getting anything drilled. They need to get drilling if they're going to reverse this SP decline.

"apparent contempt for their shareholders" - Bingo.

I'm simply stating a simple fact. Oil is dropping like a rock. If these claims of reductions in production are genuine then in combination its a doomsday scenario noone on this bb saw coming. As for Basil suggesting everyone with a negative opinion is a shorter - grow up! I wish I hadhad the foresight to short this, if so I'd have made back my losses. I'm just an ex investor who smelled a rat after the switch to quarterly reports and was waiting for this to hit the bottom before buying back in. In addition, I urged others to have caution because of how sketchy the movement to quarterly figures was and got attacked for it. In view of the abuse ive had I think I deserve a bit of an "i told you so" moment. Where are all those who've been urging people to buy this? All gone completely quiet, yet the ones who were right are attacked.

Oil has continued dropping like a stone since close. When you factor that and this apparent bombshell over production this could easily drop into the 8s tomorrow, perhaps even reach 8p,especially if there is an RNS confirming the worst. Not run the numbers myself, but would this decreased production level even be enough to breakeven based on running costs? Before anyone says the breakeven is low, yes, but you have to factor in admin costs, of which there is a lot,and many of which are fixed costs not tied to production. Really incredible how much they've messed things up this year. They planned to hit 12kbopd, if Indico-1 is a duster they could end up with c. 50% of the production they had at the beginning of 2018. These lot are giving AAOG a run for their money in the incompetence stakes. Thing's seem like they may be significantly worse than even I feared. Production dropping like a rock and no plan in place to explore the blocks.

Hardly gloating, I sold out at 12.72p having an average of 14p so made a significant loss. Have received a lot of abuse on both twitter and here for having presented my bearish case. Was called all sorts and accused of trying to get people to sell for a cheaper entry. When all I was trying to do was to stop people losing money.

Nice to now have been vindicated.

I suspected the decision to move to quarterly production figures was kicking the can down the road. So glad my extensive research saved me from what has become as of right now a +35% loss from back before N-Sands and if these OBA results are accurate will no doubt result in an even bigger loss.

I take it you are laughing at the point I and others have made regarding the disputes over drilling with local people. There I suppose is the major disagreement currently on this board. There are those of us that see the disputes with local communities as relevant and those that don't. Considering previous RNSs have discussed the impact of these kinds of disputes in the past Im not sure why people are so quick to write them off. Short memories perhaps?

I'm not a deramper. I simply give an opinion and present facts to back them up. You've all seen the El Espectador article from August, which preceded this collapse following the nsands duster. Why has this article - or the disputes with indigenous communities contained within it - not been addressed by the board? I cannot see that anyone else has analysed the expansion plans of AMER in as much detail as I have, and seen there is big gaping holes in them. I will repeat again. If Indico-1 is a duster and the information published by El Espectador is accurate, what way forward is there for Amerisur? As far as I can see it its either sit and do nothing whilst production declines, or drill the new acquisition with access from the Ecuadorian side. I very much doubt after N-Sands that the policy will be to drill more holes into Platanillo, but who knows. I am waiting to see the plans for 2019. One thing is for certain, nothing will change here until the board show the capacity to increase production, whether through indico or other drills.

And there lies the rub. This year was a perfect opportunity to explore that untapped potential - oil was high throughout the year, and we had plenty of cash to fund drills without raising funds. Yet what was accomplished? Drilling one hole into a dry target (n-sands). Production is lower than at the beginning of the year and declining, the SP is about 50% down from the 20p it was trading at not long ago, and the company seems to have no plan in place for these circumstances. I'm honestly astonished nobody has been sacked. Add to this the terrible communications which spurrred on the nsands selloff from 15.5p to the current 10p over 35% drpp and their performance is simply shocking.

I agree, given enough time (years) 11p will look cheap but many of the people that bought on Friday will have sold at a loss.

All the people who were ramping Friday about imminent news and urging people to buy in at 11p are completely silent now its below 10p. Strange how nobody that encourages people to make trades that lose them money are slated here isn't it? Considering its broken through 10p with a news blackout makes me wonder how low it would go if Indico-1 was disappointing or there was some technical problem with the drill. Yet despite the carnage the silence from the board is deafening. Some shareholders must be down 75%+ by now, with little hope of ever getting their investment back.

that once again after a good day of buying the SP was dropped right at the end of trading.

In fact, having looked at this map once again, it looks like there are actually two resguardos in put 12. One bordering platanillo and in the south east section. The new aquisition is the block which borders put 12 in the south east. As you can see from the map it is accessible from the Ecuadorian side from Puerto el Carmen.

For this reason it has made me wonder whether the company aquired this block to get around the problems of access to put 12 and 9 from the Colombian side as a result of the Buenavista resguardo.

This is the detailed map of the exploration blocks in the Putumayo.

https://www.putumayo.gov.co/images/documentos/mapas/bloques_pozos.jpg

This is a detailed map of the region with the resguardo.

http://www.corpoamazonia.gov.co/Region/Putumayo/Municipios/16_5310_pasis_ojn.pdf

If you look closely you can see that (to my eyes) it seems to extend into the southern part of put 9.

However, as far as I can see it borders platanillo all the way up to and past the main river in the area. This means that - assuming we can't build in their land - they would need to skirt around the resguardo to get access to our other blocks. This to me seems to be a pretty massive issue. How can they drill 9 or 12 if they can't gain access to them?

Basically the resguardo is smack bang in the middle of just where you don't want it to be if you want to expand east into our blocks.

When I was doing my research I found a detailed map of the region on a Colombian government website which delineated the reserve exactly. I can't remember where I found it originally. I will see if I can find it again and post it on the bb.

Hi yes I know the ancestral lands do not cover the entirety of the block. When I looked on the map of the reserve and compared it to the map in amerisur's report the reserve extended into the southern section of put 9 and is in the northern part of put 12. When I looked into the plans it seemed the targets on both blocks were in this region, around the border. Also I already mentioned the national government have the power to overrule, but the question is how long it will take. Perhaps someone else can confirm the exact location of the indigenous reserve? Like I said, with the information I could find it seemed it extended into put 9.

There is no parallel with the uk at all. There is a perfect parallel with dakota in the usa where indigenous communities have taken issue with oil pipelines crossing sovereign indigenous territory. However, in the case of the issue in Ecuador I would agree the local communities are probably looking to profit through damages. However. In tge case of the siona on the block they definitely do not want drilling to occur. And based on the experiences with foreign oil companies in Colombia and Ecuador you can hardly blame them. There have been cases of oil spills flowing right into the rivers contaminating land. I would think they will fight tooth and nail to not have their ancestral lands torn up by diggers for access roads, and run the risk of a spill ruining thrir land. To you Amerisur clealy only exists through periodic RNS and doesn't exist in the real world. The reality is that this company does not exist in a political and judiciary vacuum. There are political risks at play here whether you want to acknowledge them or not.

The main reason is that the Colombian legal system is so unstable. The indigenous communities are supposed to have sovereignty over their ancestral lands, which are called a resguardo or reserve, like in the USA. But the national government hands out the drilling blocks and is pro foreign investment. Judging by other things the board have messed up it wouldn't be at all surprising if thry had not even considered the fact that there was a resguardo right bang in the middle of their two biggest targets for the 2018 block. The good news is that there is no indigenous resguardo on the new block which was purchased. Hence why I wonder if this will be drilled next year.