RE: Fantasstic deal30 Jul 2018 20:30
I will reiterate what I said the other day. The market can continue irrational as long as a compan's financial position or prospects are open to speculation. Thats why you get on the one hand UKOG, and on the other AMER. Both valued at similar levels once taking account of cash position, yet one is producing 5k per month, is profitable, has 1.3 billion barrels onshore of unrisked prospective resources, operating in areas where wells flowing in the kbopd range is normal, and an incredible amount of potential for increasing production through exploration in its acreage. The other operates in one area where its not even known whether oil can even be produced and wells have not flowed at any rate to get anyone looking at the situation logically to get excited. What will happen in the long run. Almost certainly the valuation of each will gradually come back in sync with reality. The catalyst for ukog will be disappointing flow results. The catalysts for AMER will be results of drills and the annual results in April. If all three drills over the next few months are successful - which I believe they will be - the SP will be much higher than now, and if tge annual results show decent profits, it will be even higher once again. Ask yourselves, where can you find a company which has 1.3 billion barrels to explore onshore, is producing 5k,yet only seems to be valued on its current 20m 2p resources, production and exploration potential don't seem to be priced in at all.
There are three massive pieces of good news AMER has had:
1) oil is higher than anyone could have hoped making the company creating cash at unprecedented levels
2) the civil was which made putumayo so inaccessible and dangerous is over - don't think people here realise what a big deal that is. Oil workers were one of the main targets for kidnap by FARC for ransom. This is an absolutely massive massive plus. Why do you think Ecuador's part of the same oil field is so well developed and productive and Colombia's isn't?
3) Amer dodged an absolute bullet in the shape of Petro who would almost certainly have done something similar to the Colombian oil industry as his close political associate Chavez did in Venezuela. With political stability assured the putumayo basin will be absolutely booming the next few years, just as the llanos did after Uribe broke the back of the guerrillas there in the early 2000s.
Because of the conflict, the putumayo basin is going to be one of the last low cost onshore fields to be explored in the world, and you are all worried because people are getting overexcited about shale oil which may never even be economically feasible and ignoring companies like this with decent assets.
As far as I am concerned this is a no brainer - buy and hold medium term and the market will catch up with the reality at play here.