Member Info for eldorado1909

Just for transparency I just sold at 4.65p (bought yesterday 4.5p) at a small profit. Not because I don't like UOG, but simply because the way oil is dropping right now is getting me very concerned and I am protecting my capital.

Nobody is arguing this isn't undervalued. But the reality is over the last year all good news has had almost no impact. Oil was at 85 remember, yet the SP dropped! On the other hand, any negative news is heavily sold into.

An Indico-1 duster would be the worst news of the entire year. Are you really suggesting it wouldn't drop 20% on that news? You need to stop thinking logically about what this company's assets are worth. All that matters is will people sell their shares (irrationally) in the short term if the well is a duster. The answer is a resounding yes. It is selling and buying shares that moves the SP, not the value of the assets/production.

As I have always said, this company is a good bet long term 3-5 years to make a very good return - 300-500% from current levels. But if you are like most AIM investors and only interested in what the SP will do in the short term this is not a good bet. It could be knocked even further down by disappointing results, which is compounded by oil - its still in freefall sub 78 last time I checked. There is simply no reason to risk you capital when you can just wait for the results. Like I have said, no positive news has actually been able to lift the SP, so why would this drill be any different? It's much better to protect your capital than miss out of a small rise which would have been gained at the risk of a much bigger drop.

Maybe we will all be surprised and a positive drill result will be whats needed to start a rapid reversal to 20p. However, my experience over the last year makes we doubt this will occur.

"Those on the sidelines are crapping it now and desperate to get back in."

The SP is at almost an all time low and this being a stock market anyone is free to buy shares whenever they want. You literally talk gibberish. If they were desperate to get back in they'd be buying right now at the bottom and the SP would be rising.

5k would be like 1500bopd net to Amerisur, which would put us back to where we were at the start of the year in terms of production. Share price was 22p back then. However, I doubt that value would be added all in one go if at all judging by how this has performed. If it were to close around where it is right now I would expect it to open at around 12.5-13p and then drop back some. There doesn't seem to be a "herd" anymore on AIM, they have likely all migrated to Crypto. So you don't seem to get the same crazy rises as you did in the past.

This is why I don't really see any reason to commit here before the drill results. If its a good result it derisks the entire play, and you will likely only have to pay a little bit more than you do today, yet it would still be a good price to get in.

If Indico-1 is good then we should hope to see 15p again by the end of the year and perhaps a move back to 20p if decent production figures are confirmed in January.

If Indico-1 is disapointing this is going to 8p. It's basically a binary bet right now on the drill results. Better to hold off for a positive drill result on Indico-1 to commit imo, even if it means you have to pay higher than the current SP, because as you keep saying its was already undervalued at 15p.

Bottom line is there is no reason to commit to this share whilst oil is dropping and a duster on the only remaining drill of 2018 is a possibility. Obviously you want people to lump in here because you already bought in (presumably at a current paper loss).

depends how things go. If oil stabalises I will take 6p or more (if it comes) but remember, the placing was at 5.5p and that will provide very strong resistence to get through. getting out at 5.5p or just below is much easier than 6p. The way the market works if this pushes through 5.5p it could as easily get to 7p , 8p or 9p because most of the resistence will be just above the placing price, just like it was earlier in the year with the previous placing.

I argued back after the last delay it would not be drilled till spring, and today you have a chance to buy in pretty much at what it settled at after that drop. Now is not the time to sell. As long as oil doesn't keep dropping there should be a handsome return here over the next few months. I should think 250p where is got to last time at the bare minimum.

as oil doesn't keep dropping like a rock should see good returns here over the next month or two. Tempted to add to my position at 4.53p. Historically 4.5 has always been a good buy in price.

considering the fact it dropped all day I would assume these are big sells which have been worked through during the day or perhaps over a longer period. Would explain the drop here today despite oil recovering a bit and other oilers bouncing a little.

Funny, that's exactly what I said yesterday for which you called me a simpleton. Some of us have been observing this pattern and using it to our advantage to trade... I expect another false rally to the.mid 11s in anticipation of indico once it hits the bottom. Which will probably be a bit above 10p. Say 10.25p.

Since I made a decent amount on the last trade I may hold out for 5.5-6p this time. If colter goes ahead fine it should get there quite quickly in anticipation.

started buying back in, first tranche at 4.493.

Indeed. I remember the time I knew the bitcoin bubble was about to burst when I heard a female DJ on the radio talking about it as a potential investment. Let's see what happens with oil. Its been rising for a couple of years now so is due a correction. As others have said AMER is probably better placed to weather the storm than most AIM oilers, but there's going to be an impact if oil does keep dropping.

Yes. But it spiked up to significantly higher than that in the morning.

*$70

All of what you have said is true, but it hasn't stopped the SP dropping to 10p with oil above 70p. I find the argument that it won't fall further if oil keeps falling as pretty ridiculous honestly and don't really see the point in responding. Like all oil companies the prospects of AMER depends on the price they can sell each barrel they produce for. Oil could rebound or it could fall. None of us know which will occur, if we did we wouldn't need to invest in AMER we could just open a massive long/short spreadbet on brent. Which of the two occurs will decide whether the AMER SP rises or falls.

It was like 20k or something without lifting aids and restricted. How on earth is that comparable with the dribble of oil ukog got?

No. After the Scottish referendum it spiked up above 40p on the day, and I had my first chance to get the fook out with a profit - which I refused to take.

And GKP / PMO? Both producers like amer, both nosediving. No company is immune to macro changes. If it dropped to 10p with oil above 70 it can drop lower if oil goes lower. Simple economics.

I can remember adoubleuk from that time when it was still at around 40p. Beingthebanker was the only one who saw the drop coming and he got slated at the time for being negative.