Member Info for DRB83

At these prices, the market has already decided we lost the dispute and had to pay back the cash. Literally, anything better than the worse case scenario will be a positive.

It would be fair to say that the FY21 results were GM's results. Im not happy with the results, all I see is declining sales in a growing market with no explanation as to why.

We now have a new captain, a sales and marketing focused one who has already set out a change of approach in commercialising our business. It wouldn't be too optimistic to expect a change in fortune this year.

I don't expect it will be horizontal like that Wilson. It will be U shaped I would think or maybe just \ diagnally down.

Mid £1's is cash. The market has to look at the BS at some point.

Someone on the ncyt bod has a crystal ball, I'm convinced. Back in June they said £100m. Since then, it's been the most unpredictable and volatile demand for testing. Travel testing on then off then on. Omicron. CTDA register. Yet not once did they move from their guidance and ultimately delivered it.

Now they are doing it again. Back in August they said covid would drop 50% yoy. Yet despite all the government policy changes and new variants, 5 months later, nothings changed.

I want their crystal ball.

As things stand, not one variant is priced into FY22. As much as I want to see the back of covid, wishing it away doesn't work. Realistically, at least 1, maybe 2 variants will show up this year. Hopefully, less severe than Omicron but it will take weeks/months to understand them. During that time, global testing will go through the roof. As far as I can see, that is not priced into the FY22. That is good because it now means we have a very prudent base to build from.

You can also assume that DA has not included the 10 products that still need to be approved on the CTDA register. When this news lands then a guidance update may come with it.

In summary, £60m revenue for FY22 leaves the doors wide open for several guidance updates throughout the year.

This is no get rich quick share that is for sure but the risks are now very mitigated imo.

Grim,

EBITDA before exceptional items £36m. Exceptional items were about that much so I'm expecting we'll break even. Therefore, id expect net assets to be as they were in H1. £140m. Still £100m of that is cash. Crazy low value for a company making 40% margins.

The market is a very fickle place. Anyone thinking the current SP is valuing the fundamentals are deluded. It's all sentiment and disgruntled lth's and traders. Things will settle. I certainly won't be looking back at these prices as an opportunity missed

Yes, thank you simplyme. The maths was too quick.

Let's call it £60m round numbers.
That's £18m EBITDA
Mcap now £135m so EV £34m

Still works out at roughly 2 X EBITDA. That's with a really prudent fcast and a really low P/e ratio. Crazy price this

Very quick maths here,

FY22,
£48m covid
£14m non covid
+ Q4 additional non covid let's say £3m for roundings

Total FY22 revenue guidance £65m
Some admin costs will have to go so let's assume a EBITDA margin of 30% = approx £20m

£2 per share = mcap of £140m less cash = EV of £40m

So trading at 2 X EV, with £100m to help significantly improve those numbers.

BS net assets were £140m in H1. It's not clear what the bottom line will be in the Auditored accounts but even if we break even then at £2 we are valued at net assets which btw gives no value to future revenues.

The market has gone crazy but presenting an amazing opportunity imo.

Norway will end its system of mandatory quarantines for non-vaccinated travellers and close contacts of infected persons, replacing it instead with a daily test regime.

One country reduces testing, others increase. Then those will decrease and the others will increase again.

I don't recall seeing PROmate

I'll answer on their behalf. No and no. Travel's looking promising though.

All are welcome, roll up roll up. Whether you're from India, Brazil, US, Africa or the Far East. All are welcome and to make it easier on you we are doing away with testing so don't let the sniffles bother you. We don't care if you bring covid with you, we don't care if you bring a new variant with you. All are welcome. We still have many vulnerable who have waning immunity, we know long covid can cause you to develop asthma and other conditions but I'm prepared for the UK citizens to take the risk. Travel and tourism is more important so roll up roll up. Ffs

Could we get an early RNS advising us of a presentation of the results. That would be boomtastic.

For sure. We move from a scenario where we have fewer people coming into the country and those that do being tested to a scenario where loads of people will be coming into the country and 95% of them won't be tested at all.

Double edge sword. What comes after Omicron? Whatever it is, it will be the most spoken word in about 3-4 months. Ffs

Yes, new instrumentations. Sounds IT IS. Agents out in the field. So expanding our direct sales team. Boots on the ground. We're the distributors just not selling enough or does DA not like what margin we were giving away. Is this a change of strategy I smell. Take back control of our international sales. Interesting

Mr Shapps earlier

“It’s a proportionate system which moves us a step close to normality, while maintaining vital health measures,” said Shapps, who added that the government intended to move away from “blanket border measures” to a “more sophisticated and targeted global surveillance system”.

Mmm, wonder what that targeted global surveillance system will consist of.

I see Boris is doing away with travel testing again for people arriving in England. Smells of deja vu.

Testing removed > few months later, new variant strolls in > Borris brings border defences back > cases and testing goes through roof for a few months > things settle > Borris removes defences > new variant strolls in > Borris brings border defenses back > rinse and repeat.

Good link Neil. FDA approvals? Anyway of knowing which tests are in the process of being approved and at what stage they are at?