Member Info for DRB83

Byp, the plan would be to spend it yes. £100m cash just loses value sat there. When they spend it they can start growing that annual bottom line figure I was talking about. The more that grows the quicker we get to £4, then £8 and so on. You decide what to do based on your research. I've done mine and whilst I weren't happy with H2 results the SP has dropped further than I could've imagined which has more than offset the H2 results. Imo

Covidop, my comments arn't intended to encourage you to buy or sell. You should make those decisions based on your own research. My comments are purely for discussion points.

If DA had a philanthropist moment tomorrow and gave all of our cash away, we would be valued the same as ODX and ABX.

Just let that sink in.

My point exactly Neil. That's why I'll try to buy what I can. I've committed way more than I wanted to with ncyt but if I was willing to buy at multiples of where we are today then missing these prices would be a regret. Nothing is guaranteed on AIM and I am aware that the risk is mine and so is the responsibility.

Let's take my forecast one step further and say we spend the £100m cash in order to achieve the consistent £15m EBITDA. So now we just have £300mcap or £4.22. More in line with Numis and still more than a bag from these prices.

Appreciate that PI100. Fwiw you are correct. The Porky accusations get a little annoying after several months.

I get we're all under water here but a profit making company with £100m cash at a EV of less than £30m is ludicrous. The SP could do anything tomorrow but if it does go down to 150 then I'll be scraping whatever I can together to make a purchase. Imo it is a temporary short term obliteration of the SP due primarily to sentiment. It's more than priced in now so in the very near future I expect to see some blue days.

I look forward to seeing a breakdown of the £4.10 target.

FY22
Covid rev £42m
Non covid base revenue £16m + uplift for Q4 £2m
So total revenue £60m
EBITDA 30% £18m

FY23
Covid rev £21m
Non covid base £20m
Non covid uplift FY £9m
Total £50m
EBITDA 30% = £15m

FY24 and onwards
Covid Revenue £10m
Non covid base revenue £40m
Total revenue £50m
EBITDA £15m

FY25
Revenue stabilises at £50m
EBITDA £15m

So if we can produce a consistent £15m EBITDA per annum, applying a industry standard of say 20 puts us at £300m mcap + the £100m cash puts us at £400m or £5.63.

So the question is, can we use our Covid platform to build a consistent £15m annual profit?

Personally, I think DA will be targeting a lot more than £15m but just putting some perspective on today's SP. £15m annual profit is a 2 bagger from here.

21ATS, it's in the RNS last year. If the dispute was about how the contract was awarded, why make a £20m replacement warranty in the accounts.

Neil, the product in dispute was Exsig. The products they use today is PROmate. A very good sign that the relationship between us and DHSC is still intact. Just wish they'd make their minds up about how to resolve. Surely if you're not making progress then arbitration needs to be employed. What's taking so long. Has a change of CEO held up the process I wonder. It would be nice to have something solid before it's anniversary.

Some of the £13.4m will be private I would have thought. Neil, the NGO's were included in the private also. That could be £30m to governments. It would be good to have a geographical split as it could be suggesting that we are in with many governments. UK total was £42m so it won't all be NHS.

Not sure if this has been discussed already

Private testing accounted for 58% of FY2021 revenue at £55.9m,

So what is the other 42% or £40m. Are we talking NHS and other government run agencies around the world?

Have we got a test for bipolar?

Byp, you are either extremely pro ncyt or extremely against ncyt. What happened to the middle bit, the subtle but. One RNS and the company implodes in your eyes. A few weeks from now we'll get a R&D update on a 10 min PCR test and all of a sudden DA and ncyt will be the bomb.

Byp, the 50% reduction was FY21 to FY22. FY20 had £190m from DHSC. Zero in FY21. Factor that in and things look a little more comparable and meaningful. I'm still not happy with H2 but that was GM's approach. DA's is going for a customer driven approach. Always good to listen to what the customers want. Surprised this wasn't GM's method tbh.

No one is willing to predict what 2022 looks like from a covid perspective, and those that do predict it will disappear before summer gets here. As a result, DA has gone Uber conservative imo and as for contracts, no customers want to commit to far ahead when they're not sure which way covid will go.

The old strategy didn't work. H1 sales were £54m, H2 sales were £42m despite the humongous spike in testing. It's time for a new approach and I'm hoping DA's will work. At an EV of £28m and a guidance profit of approx. £20m I'm happy to hold.

The £102 is inline with my calcs which were based on £110m revenue. The £14m difference in revenue would equate to about £5m cash so if anything we have £5m more cash than I expected which is probably due to slight movements in net current assets. We won't know for sure until April but you certainly shouldn't be looking at £102m cash as a negative. That £10m increase in cash would be a significant placing for most on AIM. We are £28m EV. This market is providing crazy opportunities.

That would be investment suicide for 99% of us.

Very good find. There are a tiny amount of small gaps in the communication wall and you do well to find them. Thanks

Byp, also looking at cash in isolation is meaningless. We need the balance sheet. In H1 we went from £92 to £77m but made £23m EBITDA. Cash could be tied up in stock for all we know.

Byp, that's nonsense. Cost of sales are less than 30% so you would need well over £300m in sales before you washed through £100m cash. Secondly, the reason it's called cost of sales is because there's a sale involved. So more cash.

We were profitable in the year by at least £36m. That is more than our current EV.

The current consensus I believe is that the dispute is due to inefficient products and processes. The GLP is all about the unfair awarding of contracts.

The bod put £20m provision on the BS in FY20 as a result of a potential warranty claim. A warranty claim based on replacement of products. That to me suggests this has nothing to do with the GLP. Hence why the GLP has never mentioned us despite us having one of the largest contract wins.

Kilt, you could say the same for ncyt. Small fish, big pond. Knowingly submitting false results would be career ending, company ending. This is science, everything is documented and truth always prevails. I believe they wouldn't risk it. Having said that, Innova did alright.

Next it will be that ncyt applied pressure on the CTDA process to get their Genesig 1g test fast tracked through the system.

I'll worry when there's something to worry about. Like, why am I able to buy shares in a £20m a year profit making company in a growing industry with £102m cash who has a enterprise value of £28m. I'm still trying to figure it out. These kind of deals don't happen that often.