Member Info for DRB83

B2, yes manufacturing constraints did come into my thoughts. We are aware with materials shortages on some LFT's and with the sudden relentless jump in PCR demand it would not be surprising that reagent suppliers, plastic and a whole host of other raw materials have been heavily restricted due to a lack of supplies. Throw into the mix a shortage of staff due to covid at manufacturing plants and yes our manufacturing capabilities could have been heavily hindered. This has however never been eluded to by the people we are trusting our investment with. One way or the other, we should get plenty of answers within the next 4 sessions.

B2, a lot of your points are valid but most seem to be focusing on EBITDA. I am referring solely to revenue. I agree that we don't know what the margins will be for H2 so we can only go with the latest guidance. I expect in the region 40-50%.

Revenue is more my focus at the moment as given we sold £87m non DHSC in FY20 which for 9 months is just under £10m per month then comparing that with FY21 guidance of £100m then the bod are telling us that average monthly sales are actually shrinking. £100m needs to be smashed in my eyes.

NHS? and 1 other? Assuming NHS and DHSC arn't all just banded together.

Other differences yoy are:

Headcount was massively bigger in FY21
We started FY21 with £92m cash Vs very little in FY20
We had more machines out in the market in FY21 Vs FY20
We laid the foundations in FY20 in which to build FY21
We had the full year effect of new products released part way through FY20 such as PROmate, SNPSIG, LFT
FY21 had all Alpha, Delta and Omicron.

Yes competition increased and we lost our first mover advantage but at the same time the covid testing market blew up. We should have been selling everything we could make.

The bod have lead us to believe that £100m revenue will be hit but should we see this as acceptable? Given the above. Have they played a blinder and in 4 sessions time going to blow our socks off. We've seen all other revenue generating covid companies smashing guidance and given our platform our growth should be bigger than theirs. I have now arrived at the opinion that £100m revenue is a disappointing year. My socks are well and truly ready to be blown off. GLA

When you exclude DHSC, revenue looks like this:

FY20
UK £29m
EU £32m
Africa £3m
Asia £7m
America £10m
ME £6m
Total £87m

H1 21
UK £21m
EU £21m
Africa £1m
Asia £5m
America £5m
ME £0m
Total £54m

Let's assume the 46m revenue from H2 is as below:

H2 21
UK £19m
EU £19m
Africa £0m
Asia £4m
America £4m
ME £0m
Total £46m

That gives a split of the FY21:

FY 21
UK £40m
EU £40m
Africa £1m
Asia £9m
America £9m
ME £0m
Total £100m

That's Yoy growth by segment of:

FY21
UK 25%
EU 25%
Africa shrunk minimal
Asia 29%
America shrunk 10%
ME shrunk completely
Total 15%

I know we lost our first mover advantage in FY21 but given the increase in testing in FY21 and that FY20 was only 9 months at best does anyone feel that £100m guidance for FY21 was waaaaaay too prudent.

This is from the FY21 accounts. Obviously this is the DHSC.

Reliance on major customers and concentration risk

Primerdesign's revenue includes approximately £190,000,000 (2019: £nil) from sales to the Group's largest customer. No other customers contributed 10% or more to the Group's revenue in 2020.

So this means £87m was non DHSC. It kind of makes the £100m this year look a little flat given our focus completely shifted to selling through non DHSC channels.

2/3's of our sales are non UK.

Also, from our H1 accounts:

Reliance on major customers and concentration risk

Primerdesign's revenue includes approximately £9,264,000 (H1 2020: £nil) from sales to the Group's largest customer. One other customer contributed 10% or more to the Group's revenue in the reporting period.

9.2m = 17% of total sales
5.4m = 10% of total sales
So that is at least 27% of our total sales with 2 customers. Anyone want to hazard a guess who they are?

The fact that ncyt haven't responded just shows how small time PE are. A bit like us calling the authorities on Woody. Having said that, defamatory comments built on lies that are then released into the public perceiving to be genuine should not go unpunished.

The general consensus is that PE know as much as Joe public and twisted everything into a bad light. Why?

Why would someone make that up? Why would someone want the SP to fall. Short or looking for the best possible entry before results.

Dyor is very important. Happy to hold here personally. Looking to top up next week depending on sp.

H1 = £13m loss
H2
Revenue £50m
EBITDA 43% £21m

FY21 EBITDA £13m loss add £21m = £8m

Also SPQ. £25m EBITDA seems high to me. I'm assuming you are including the dispute. H1 was a loss of £13m so I'm expecting FY21 to be in the region of £10m unless we get a nice surprise about the dispute.

If mine was Disney Land. That's out of this world

Disney Land? The logic is all there. At least share your logic that suggests this will go to 150 which is £106m mcap. I'd love to rip it to pieces.

Wba, reign it in.

June £77m
Sales of say £50m in H2 with a cash conversion of 32% so
£15m
£17m potential tax refund

These figures assume no movement in stock, debtors or creditors and no capex spend.

No way near £70m though imo

Imo cash worse case is £92m, best case is £120m

My thoughts exactly Neil. £70m cash? What is your calc?

Hi Shell, all this from someone who thought writing off the stock will impact out cash pile. Lol.

Everything you wrote is speculation and can be easily counted so pick a number and get in line. 4 sessions till news.

It appears gallders contribution to this board is coming on and name calling. Anyone else you want to call a naughty word. Jeez it's too easy to lie about your age on social media.

I call it now that by the end of March or possibly even February the UK will be one of the first if not the first of the advanced nations to stop publicly reporting covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths etc.

My reasoning being, Boris is hell bent on getting over covid. Forget the sufferers of long covid, forget hospitalisations, forget deaths, what Boris wants to see is reduced unemployment figures, increased GDP, a controlled inflation rate.

From next week we have no legal restrictions in place, just advice, except for self isolation. Subject to no further VOC's the legal requirement to self isolate will be abolished. Both if these things along with waning vaccine immunity and waning antibodies from previous infection will mean covid will be very active in society and unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths will be significantly higher than they have to be.

If it is constantly on our screens reminding us about covid then it will put certain groups of people off from going out and mixing and shopping etc. Therefore, in Boris' mind the answer will be to stop reporting the numbers. What you can't see won't hurt you kind of philosophy. Gradually, confidence builds in society and by summer things are back to pre covid levels.

This is what I believe BJ's plan is. It is fraught with risks. Imo it is riskier than investing your money on AIM, the difference being it's not BJ's money he's playing with, it's ours and our families and friends lives he's playing with. If he loses, he loses his job (he keeps the millions of back handers hes received during his tenure), what do we lose?

The pandemic will become endemic eventually but forcing it is going to cause irreversible damage for a hell of a lot of people.

Potential.

550+ assays. Work already commenced on CE mark and making compatible with g machines. Thousands of machines already out in the field. A tried and tested global distribution network awaits. You buy today based on potential. If they already had the non covid revenue streaming in then we would already be £10. You buy today because you believe they will get the non covid revenue streams. £100m+ to make it happen. When you invest in aim, you're not investing in today's ready made done and dusted company. You invest in tomorrows ready made done and dusted company. Ncyt is the closest you'll find to that in AIM and at dirt cheap prices down here. Imo dyor. We'll all know more this time next week.