Member Info for DRB83

Woody,Capri. You seem to interpret a prediction and a hoping as 1 of the same thing.

I predict a lot of bad things will happen in 2022. I don't want a lot of bad things to happen. There is a clear difference Woody, one of which you seem to be unable to comprehend. Maybe best to keep quiet then.

Pandemic cost the global economy many trillions of dollars. I expect many billions will be spent to spot the next one well before it becomes a pandemic. Early pandemic warning systems.

Also, another variant is coming. Does it evade antibodies, does it cause severe illness? Let's hope not but one is coming.

Finally, ncyt isn't just any covid stock. It's the best Covid stock.

Not particularly Shell. Been pre occupied with one of the other resident trolls.

It would be nice to get an update on it from the bod. After all £30m is about 20% of our balance sheet. Most Aim stocks couldn't dream of having £30m tied up in stock, nevermind bad stock. Would love to know the ins and outs.

Wilson, take a gander

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-test-validation-approved-products

Yes Kitty, a very prudent approach. As per RNS below, the company will continue to look for ways to use this stock. £30m of test kits, materials and possibly machines. 4 months on and we've not heard anything. What the hell is wrong with that stock that makes it so difficult to shift when the world is screaming out for tests.

The Company is also taking an exceptional one-off cost of £28.9m to write down inventory that the Company had built in anticipation of further DHSC demand and to terminate supply commitments with third parties in respect of this supply that are no longer required. This inventory build was Novacyt's direct response to support the UK Government's call for UK manufacturers to build manufacturing capacity and supply chain flexibility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and was based on likely demand indicated by DHSC. The Company will continue to look for ways to use this inventory.

20 January 2022
Removed Oxford Nanopore Diagnostics' LamPORE COVID-19 test kit from protocol list.

Sweden to relax isolation rules, tells people working from home not to take tests due to test kit shortage

You would think, anyone with tests in a warehouse would have already sold them. I'd like an update on our £30m of Exsig tests.

Poor form Capri. Denying the obvious.

PI100, sentiment and traders are driving the SP. Fundamentals are sound. I appreciate next week will be an anxious wait but I'm comfortable the accounts will be strong. The Outlook is the key and if they don't give clear guidance then the SP wont sustain any gains. However, just because the guidance might be unclear doesn't mean ncyt won't be growing. Imo they have all the right ingredients to grow massively in 2022.

Just the way its going to be for a while Woody. When your only a 5% profit margin business like spoons it doesn't take a big impact on the top line to send you red. If 20% of your customers decide to stay away for a bit that will hurt. Inflation rising, bills come first so expect some regulars to become irregulars. VAT rate rising soon. Tax rate rising but I don't expect you'll be seeing any profit anytime soon so that's fine.

On the other hand, UK will probably start reducing testing in the Spring/summer. Hell, if BJ's doing away with self isolation then what is going to be the point of testing right. We are world leaders in prematurely treating this pandemic as endemic but it will take months and months if not years for this to become globally endemic. 2 thirds of our business is conducted overseas. It's called risk diversification. Spoons are bound to the policies and culture of one government.

Don't forget the seasonal ramp up of testing come October, oh and the testing ramp up for the next variant.

I'll say it here and now. Expect another VOC by April.

Private eye hasn't had any bearing on the SP at all imo. You give it too much credit. Traders are trading. I for one said only yesterday that if 280 support fails then 250 is next. Well 280 failed yesterday and low and behold 250 catches it. Everything is against ncyt at the moment and with no news for 5 more sessions don't be surprised if 250 fails and it drops quickly to 220.

LTH's shouldn't be worrying imo. These are just short term movements that have no relation to the internal metrics of ncyt. Buy the dip imo dyor

Maybe so, what does the market see though. A covid free UK with economy booming and everyone jetting off on fun filled holidays. Spoons jam packed. No more risks of variants. Everyone just cracking on as if 2020/21 didn't happen. UK immune to what is happening in the rest of the world. If so, then yes I see a nice little bull run on sentiment. However, it is a very unlikely situation in my eyes. Call me pessimistic or realistic but a new variant of concern is mutating as we speak and regardless of its qualities the world will likely fall straight back into mayhem. That is where a strong balance sheet will come in. Spoons bs is going to be dipping under £300m very soon. What is your mcap again?

Market is endless. A nice tie up with Deepverge would be a nice entry point.

I don't short Capri so no. Any ideas how loss making Spoons are funding the day to day working capital. Back in July they only had £45m cash, which covers just over a month of wages. I bet they can feel those loan covenants breathing down their necks. The economy can't open quick enough for spoons. Just hope everyone is happy mixing with Covid positive people when their vaccines wear off. Tim's hopeful though.

Byp, just

If there really was any skulduggery going off within the ncyt and DHSC deal do you really think they would have gone to town on each other with the potential for a court hearing. They'd want to keep it low profile surely. Sort it out backstage and move on.

I would be extremely disappointed if there was a special dividend. The opportunities£100m cash can bring is endless. Don't dare give me a dividend ncyt.

It has to been seen as a top up opportunity imo.

Balance sheet strong
Thousands of machines out there
POC market set to grow significantly
Hundreds of tests to CE mark
R&D constantly working on the next big thing
Bioinformatics dept ensuring no quality issues.
Global distribution chain already established
In with the NHS
In with WHO
In with UNICEF
70% op margin
40-50% EBITDA margin
35-40% PAT margin
32% cash conversion
Cash burn is minimal (biggest spend is people)
Dispute mostly priced into balance sheet (nothing favourable priced in, yet very good chance we'll get something favourable)
Two thirds of total sales in ROTW so no longer bound by 1 nation and 1 customer.
ATH global covid testing
Our top 2 products approved and selling in UK. More to come.
Soon to be released self test LFT
BJ on the ropes, a new leader may want to restore faith in British diagnostics, security against global shortage.
Very competitive on price
Very competitive on quality (good combination)
Plans commenced on US growth strategy
World will learn to live with covid but not in 2022/23.
Highly likely that a new variant will pop up somewhere and cause a new wave of testing demand. Likely this will be repeated.
Mcap of £180m with £100m in cash and £40-50m annual profit.

CEO still needs to prove himself
Even at £180m mcap, where are the director buys
What happened with DA options
Absolutely shocking IR

Price follows the crowd so be silly not to keep an eye on the crowd. Had you not been aware you may have wanted to top up in the 3's and be kicking yourself now.