Member Info for DRB83

Of course they are. Are you knew to this game. Bless.

Blue, I'd be very disappointed if they let the EBITDA margin dwindle to 10%. They will inevitably let the temporary contracts expire and cut other costs where possible without having too much impact on the top line. I went with 30% to allow for some of the costs remaining but most going.

Oh my days. This is crazier than crazy

Ok shell. I obviously don't know anything about you're upbringing but when addressing someone I was brought up to at least use their correct name. It's just courtesy. Going forward if you do want to engage then use my username. Otherwise, anything you say will fall on deaf ears. I already know your response so I guess I won't be hearing from you again. Sweet!

Jollyspeculator, 24k posts. Wow, that's alot of investor money you've stolen. Family must be proud.

Hi Shellybaby. Why the need for a 2nd account I wonder. Lol

What was also a big relief was the £4.7m contract we got from the DHSC mid last year several months after the dispute. Proves the relationship is still there and further supports the opinion that a further deal may come out of the dispute should it be in the interest of both parties.

Captain Swag, your post of 11:16. The £20m has already been provided for so theretically already lost.

In terms of the accounts. Here is my 10 pence.

£129m + £49m is dispute. So £178m This includes VAT
DHSC have not paid £24m (of the £129m) and £49m.
This means they have paid £105m of which £87.5m is non vat.

Therefore if we did have to pay back everything in one go (never going to happen but I'll play along) then we would pay back £105m but I expect we would then be due a refund from the VAT man of around £17.5m. Then there would be a huge corporate tax refund due as the revenue would be wiped off the FY20 bottom line. Tax liability at end of FY20 was £15m so I'd expect to get all of that back, so even absolute worse case we would have £30m cash left to take the business forward.

Remember, the trolls don't do homework and don't understand accounts. Shell says so herself and just looks at the chart, sees its trending down so goes and trolls the board. That's why you won't ever see them backing up their claims. Finger in the wind style. Sickly.

Cont....
and the balance sheet has provided £90m for the dispute so we pretty much have the worse case factored in.

"I am invested here but unlike you lot I trade it and have done well, I do regularly express opinions around where I think the SP will be but they are just my opinions!" - you're just kidding yourself

Shelly, that's alot of negative sentiment all in one go. Let's break it down and try to sprinkle a little positive energy onto each point:

"You forget they missed their own revenue targets when all around announced overs because of the strength of the market. Tells me their tests aren’t all they are cracked up to be" - I am by no means happy with the £96m (£42m H2), it certainly doesn't paint a good picture BUT these are GM's numbers. Apparently, the previous strategy was to make a product and push it onto the customer. It clearly didn't work so DA is changing it up. What does the market want, then make it. We'll see how it goes but with a new captain (sales background and proven track record), great R&D team, huge direct sales team and distribution channels and £100m cash to play with then things are going to be different in FY22. That's for sure.

"they only sold what they did because they probably had stock of reagents etc not because customers actually wanted the products through choice" - an obvious troll comment with no substance so warrants no reply

"They have fallen behind the competition who now have superior products." - examples would be nice to support your claim or is it just another uneducated opinion. The first mover advantage has clearly gone yes but that doesn't necessarily mean we've fallen behind, just our lead has been reduced. £95m revenue in a year whilst valued less than ODX and Abingdon isn't exactly 'bad value'

"DA couldn’t say anything cos he had nothing good to say about current or future opportunities." - DA has drawn a line in the sand, his tenure in terms of the numbers starts Jan 1st. The line he has drawn is very prudent and one I believe he believes will be smashed in FY22. He takes all the glory. It's an obvious thing to do. We are now valued based on £60m revenue and £20m profit. I think he knows he'll smash it.

"They have failed to crack on with alternative income streams so have ended up a one trick pony." - the pandemic is still the hot topic. The transition starts FY22 all being well (no more variants), FY21 was never going to be the transition back to non covid as we had a new captain coming on board mid year. A new strategy takes time. We now have one almost complete. Again, our non covid business is bigger than both ODX and ABDX's entire revenue yet we are valued less than them. Basically, lots of growth expected from our non covid business and that is what investors look for.

"The cash!!!
OMG the cash
FFS they are holding it until they have to give it back, they dare not touch it." - This may be the case, certainly something is stopping them spending it. However, it is extremely unlikely that a full cash refund will be given. It is more than likely that a mutual agreement will happen that is more in the middle. Who knows, a new agreement may come out of the dispute. What is known however is that the market has already valued us at more than a 100% loss so and the balance sheet has prov

On a more positive note. The 30% gross margin has been maintained. Antonio did promise us 50% at some point but I'm assuming that was including the benefit of economies of scale which haven't materialised yet.

If our Admin expenses are £1.5m for 6 months, let's round that to £2m for additional heads etc. That's £4m for the year. If we maintain our 30% gross margin then We need £13m revenue per annum to break even. It is certainly doable, I just can't be too optimistic following the dishonesty and poor set of H1 results.

If with added volume comes lower costs per unit and Antonio delivers his 50% margin then we only need £8m revenue.

This is assuming no options are added to the reserves.

Apologies, that was meant to read, cash has increased by £1.7m

So cash has increases by £350k in the 6 months. This is despite receiving £5.7m from the placing back in May. So we have spent £4m ish of that placing money in 6 months. Where did it go? Well

£1.3m was spent on operating activities
£1m was given to a friend
£1.2m was spent on Chill.com
£0.6m by the looks of it on the £1.2m LDA Capital agreement

Hold on. Antonio said in May that the full £1.2m would be settled shortly after the placing as per below:

Concurrent with the Subscription, the Company has agreed with LDA Capital Limited ("LDA Capital") the termination of the Financing Agreement announced (and as defined) on 9 March 2021. Pursuant to a settlement agreement dated 4 May 2021 (the "Settlement Agreement") Zoetic will pay LDA Capital £1,200,000 to terminate the Financing Agreement. Zoetic intends to make this payment shortly after Admission.

Secondly, I'd love to know who our friend is and who sanctioned that loan.

Lastly, so whilst our placing money does appear to have evaporated pretty quickly, the underlying cash burn is actually only £1.3m for 6 months. We had £2m at 30 Sept. 4 months ago. Assuming a similar cash burn we know have £1.1m left.

We do however unfortunately still have £600k to settle with LDA, when is that due? Antonio knows. We will receive a couple hundred grand back from our friend but we have a few high profile appointments recently that won't come cheap. Unless sales pick up significantly and immediately then a placing is coming, and I mean imminently. Where possibly talking single digits.

I'm long here and really hope that long term the bod can deliver but I'm losing faith and Antonio lieing to us is not helping at all.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I get from note 7 that we borrowed some of our cash, at least £1m to a shareholder and charged basically no interest and they get to pay it back over the course of the next 15 or so months.

We have £2m in the bank and likely to have much less now. Wow. Since when did we become a lender and more to the point a charity.

I'm sure this will go down well, particularly with the 60p placing crew. Who is this shareholder? £1m interest free loan over what 2 years. It's not what you know it's who you know.

NOTE 7 - NOTE RECEIVABLE - RELATED PARTY



During the six month period ended 30 September 2021, the Group entered into a note agreement with a related party. The note receivable consists of a note from an entity owned and operated by a shareholder of the Group. The note carries interest on the unpaid principal balance of 0% interest from 30 September 2021 through 31 January 2022 and shall bear interest at the short term rate of 0.18 percent per annum from 1 February 2022 until the note is paid in full on 1 May 2023. The total balance due from the related parties note receivable at 30 September 2021 was £943,874.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-adult-care-homes/covid-19-care-home-testing-guidance-for-regular-and-outbreak-testing-of-staff-and-residents

Outbreak testing
Definition of a care home outbreak
An outbreak consists of 2, or more, positive (or clinically suspected) cases of COVID-19 during a 14-day period. This applies to both staff and residents and includes PCR and rapid lateral flow test results. If you have one or more positive cases (or multiple symptomatic individuals), please contact your health protection team (HPT) for advice. One positive test result may be the first sign of an outbreak, so you should also contact your HPT for advice in this instance.

The testing process is as follows:

Book couriers for collecting PCR tests on day 1 and days 4 to 7.

Conduct PCR tests for all staff and residents, once on day 1 of the outbreak and once between days 4 and 7.

Start (or continue, depending on your circumstances) daily rapid lateral flow testing of all staff, until there has not been a positive result for 5 consecutive days.

When you carry out the outbreak PCR test for residents (day 1 and once again between days 4 to 7), also test the resident with a rapid lateral flow test on the same day. If either test is positive, assume the resident has COVID-19.

Test any newly symptomatic residents, with a PCR.

Continue to isolate and ensure contact tracing has been completed.

Your HPT may decide to differ from this process based on their professional judgement, and where possible you should follow their instructions. For example, based on their risk assessment and professional judgement, they may decide that if no further positives are found through the PCR outbreak testing that the outbreak restrictions can be lifted.

So in summary, if 2 positive cases are found in a care home that has 90 residents and staff then all 90 have to be PCR tested twice. Unbelievably, these 180 tests are sent off to a central lab for processing. 24 hours later (I assume) the results are issued back to the care home. What on earth are the gov playing at. POC testing is available. Jeez, if you have an outbreak, 1 q32 machine could have you tested in under 3 hours. 3 machines and under 1 hour. Care homes are the very places where we need the very best POC testing capabilities yet the gov are asking the staff to pack them up, label them, record them, sort deliveries and collections, then wait 24 hours for the results. Ffs.

Pi100, I don't think it comes down to worry. They along with multiple other countries have ran out of ways and money to control Covid so have basically given up. I actually believe they will be very worried as they have been forced to let covid run free. Who knows what that means for the next 3 months. I predict a VOC by spring. I am also hoping that DA and his sales team can muster up some more government contracts. Testing has become a cancer to the markets hence the negative sentiment. The market hasn't figured out yet that the world needs testing to live with Covid and any other infectious disease that might rear its head. Looking forward to seeing Sajid Javid's plan.

Agreed Hydr. I think DA has intentionally low balled the forecast and camouflaged it under the 'covid is uncertain and difficult to predict' umbrella. Im confident he can use his experience, the cash and our Covid platform to grow ncyt into a much bigger organisation than today.

The case count doesn't currently include reinfections. Most people who catch covid now are a reinfection. The case count will be interesting come Feb 1st.

Yes growth helps but you have to cement your base first. If you can prove consistent sales and bottom line then that's the first step. Consistent growth and you'll be commanding higher than industry standard pe rates. You'll be in the realms of 20-30 imo

We're currently at less than 1. Forecast is less than 1.5.

I'm happy to give DA a chance to see what he can do.