Member Info for DRB83

The naysayers that said we wouldn't hear anything until April, do you think we'll hear anything else before April?

Byp, I have been focusing on bringing my average down because the fundamentals are very strong here imo and the value gap just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I don't see this as throwing good money after bad. I expect to be rewarded handsomely in the future. It's been tough and my exposure here is way bigger than I ever imagined it would get but I've done my research and my head was telling me this will come good so I've put my money where my mouth is so to speak and been fortunate enough to average down. Having said that I'm still heavily underwater here although if we revisit the heights of December then I'll be a happy man.

I don't have access to Telegram so no I haven't seen the letter.

£12 was in the heights of covid and the market got carried away. GM pulled a masterstroke and got his test in first and was handsomely rewarded. He was lucky that the LTIP concluded in Nov20 as 6 months later he would have had a nasty taste in his mouth. This is how business works. Sometimes you get lucky. GM got lucky with the timing.

It would be extremely unfair in my opinion to challenge the current bod with getting back to those heights or £15 in 3 years now that Covid has subsided and we have a dispute hanging over our heads that could go either way. The target has to be seen as achievable to get DA to buy into it. Now I'm not saying £12 isn't achievable in 3 years but the LTIP certainly shouldn't be set at that amount. £7.77 is easily doable with a favourable wind but that's just the minimum to ensure the bod are rewarded for successfully steering us through the upcoming transition to non covid. It won't stop at £7.77. DA will have 358k shares in play at that point which is a huge incentive to get ncyt to midcap imo. It will be a ride if you can last it.

Byp, it's unclear bet even if that was the case then it would be unlikely that the bod would look to keep the SP low and then just ramp the hell out of it in FY24. Too risky and to be frank just no point.

By the time FY24 or for that matter possibly this year II's will be looking at getting on board and that coupled with possibly M&A activity will mean the bod will consistently look to be growing the SP and communicating with market. There is no longer any motivation for the bod to want the SP low and certainly no motivation to neglect the SP purposely. The LTIP is a positive step for me and should indicate a turn in our fortunes.

Sounds about right to me Wilson. Assuming we don't already have the shares to one side (don't recall seeing any tbh) then we would issue the shares in Feb 25 diluting our holdings by 1.4% or 10/11p

No.

FY22 £4.60
FY23 £5.98
FY24 £7.77

If the SP at the end of FY22 is £6 then great but the £5.98 target still stands for FY23.

A good LTIP does not punish good performance.

£3.54 X 1.3 X 1.3 X 1.3

Chris, byp is being erratic and making little sense.

I'll repost just for you byp. Your theory of restating the baseline annually is counter productive and makes no sense. Please read below. Plenty of examples of why resetting the base just wouldn't work

The base is unlikely to reset after year 1 so the end target is likely known now. £7.77. It would be counter productive if after Yr 1 the share price rose to £6 because say the dispute got favourably resolved and that became the new base for Yr 2, so the new target would then become £7.80 by end of yr 2. Your good performance in year 1 has just cost you a year of time off the LTIP. It counter productive and doesn't make sense.

Also, what happened if the SP didn't reach the 10% increase (£3.90) by end of this year. That would mean the entire LTIP is void as the target is 10% PER ANNUM. So let's be sensible and see that the base line has been drawn at £3.54 and the 30% per annum growth is all bases on the base line. So we know that to get their shares the bod have to grow the SP to £7.77 by end of Dec24 (Dec average closing price). That unlocks the shares.

Pebble, we've already had the RNS about Co-prep going to be launched. When it's actually launched we'll get an RNS imo. We'll also get some nice information about what it does and how it works and what it means to our customers and sales. Also, since when have ncyt ever released an R&D update with just one product on it. I wonder what else the team have developed in the last 7/8 months. Must be quite a bit I would think.

DA is going to need that cash to get the £7.77m. He's going to want it now. If the dispute has been holding our investment strategy back then be assured DA will want it resolving sooner rather than later. Once that particular shackle had been released then M&A is bound to be in the cards. I feel a bit like I've just boarded a rollercoaster ride and now waiting patiently for the green light. The rollercoaster goes up and down but the exit is well north of here. GLA

Hydr, you underestimate the power of II's buying in.

Byp, it may be low £7.77 but I don't think anyone cares. LTH's and the bod are now alligned. They will be doing what they can to get the SP to £7.77 and beyond. They've got £100m cash to do it.

A switch a just been flipped. The bod have gone from 'not stopping the decline' to 'we want that sp up'. The switch has been flipped and the light is shining.

You can't compare this LTIP to the highs of Nov 20 pre vaccine. The world is different now. The challenge DA has is to transition from covid to non covid. He has £100m to make it happen. If he can get ncyt to a baseline £27.5m annual profit then at a 20 p/e he's smashed it.

£27.5m PAT. Once that is achieved then onwards and upwards. £100m cash. If he manages to sort the dispute even 50:50 with replacement co prep and PROmate or whatever they want tbh then thank you very much another £73m to play with.

It's likely that given the bod know the ins and outs of the dispute negotiations that they will be unable to trade in shares until the dispute is resolved. Another reason for the the bod to get it over the line.

Shell, you have no credibility on this board so you are comfortable pulling numbers out of fresh air and pinning your name on them. Its trending down so there is always a good chance you'll be right, and if you're wrong it doesn't matter because you have no credibility to lose. You're a bit like a nose wart. Congratulations you achieved your life dream lol

Co prep delayed launch linked with a dispute resolution?

It's a reach but not beyond the realms of possibility.

Let's not forget that the UK is only 45% of our business. Co-prep launch should not hinder on the PROmate approval imo.

Byp, educated guesses.

Ncyt told us the open cash
Ncyt told us the H2 EBITDA
Ncyt told us the 80% cash conversion (the missing 20% being tax, which we won't be paying as profit will be minimal and we have off setting losses accrued)
I read somewhere in the accounts that the LTIP would be paid in Nov21.

If I was being really pedantic then we have 4 outstanding significant concerns in the near future:

1. We lose the dispute and cash reduces by £28m
2. We don't get anymore product approved on CTDA and we can only sell Genesig in the UK.
3. AR skirted a little too close to the ethics line which ultimately cost him his job and we may be liable for something in the near future.
4. The world says covid is over and testing is going to stop from spring

Measure how likely these are to happen and ask yourself, are these already priced in. Imo some certainly are.

I'm not going to list all the positives again but there's about 30.

Byp,

Cash at June £77m
H2 EBITDA £13m
Cash conversion 100% as tax wouldn't have been paid yet
Cash from H2 therefore £13m
Sub total £90m
LTIP payment would have been paid in November so take off £5m
New sub total £85m.
That means movements in the balance sheet would equate to £102m-85m = £17m

This could be a mixture of:
Tax rebates
Reduction in stock
Reduction in trade debtors
Increase in trade payables
A whole host of other things.

My honest opinion is that we have already received at least some of the tax rebates. What is ultimately important is the £102m cash. It's ours.

Wow, a few people on here really are showing themselves to be the lowest of the low. Ramp when it suits them, deramp when it suits them. Lowest of the low imo.

Where are all the SP targets coming from. I've seen £7.08, £9.57 or something. The base line is £3.54. 30% yoy growth is £7.77. A nice easy number to remember.

The base is unlikely to reset on after year 1 so I believe the end target is known now. £7.77. It would be counter productive if after Yr 1 the share price rose to £6 because say the dispute got favourably resolved and that became the new base for Yr 2, so the new target would then become £7.80 by end of yr 2. Your good performance in year 1 has just cost you a year of time off the LTIP. It counter productive and doesn't make sense.

Also, what happened if the SP didn't reach the 10% increase (£3.90) by end of this year. That would mean the entire LTIP is void as the target is 10% PER ANNUM. So let's be sensible and see that the base line has been drawn at £3.54 and the 30% per annum growth is all bases on the base line. So we know that to get their shares the bod have to grow the SP to £7.77 by end of Dec24 (Dec average closing price). That unlocks the shares.

The bod exc DA JM can then sell them if they want on the open market for what ever the sell rate is at the time. DA and JM can sell c50% initially but must hold the test until end of Yr 4 which means the bod are incentivised now to increase the SP by as much as possible for at least the next 4 years. Great news.

Until now it could have been argued that the bod were not incentivised or maybe actually incentivised to see the SP drop. They did a good job. That is all irrelevant now. This is what I've been waiting for. GLA LTH.