Member Info for DRB83

Thanks chaps. So still no on when the options will be set. What could be the hold up. I would think they'd set the options before any potential bonanza news otherwise they'll be shooting themselves in the foot. Until those options are set then I would think shareholders and the bod are on different teams at the moment. Any thoughts?

The end goal or the route may not be clear but what is for sure is that the bod are no longer incentivised to allow the SP to drop and are now incentivised to grow the SP 2,3,4 5+ bags from here. That bit is clear.

Just checking back in here after a while. I can't seem to find a RNS detailing the recent stock options. Have the details be released yet? Do we know the exercise price etc?

It's not clear Wilson unfortunately.

If they hit the following growth:

FY22 35%
FY23 10%
FY24 20%

Does that mean they get:

FY22 100% of a third of shares
FY23 25% of a third of shares
FY24 62.5% of a third of shares

What's also unclear is the base point for each year. I believe the relevant base points are:

FY22 354
FY23 460
FY24 598

But byp was stating that it could be wherever the SP finishes on each 31 Dec.

As clear as mud really. Would be great if someone could ask Mandy. The information has been rns'd so she should be able to simply clarify.

Byp, I'll humour you for a little longer.

Can't compare the sentiment of going into a pandemic with that of coming out of one so please keep it reasonable.

DA has been given shares currently worth £600k. If he does the business he could get north of £3m. If he doesn't he could get nothing. That's an opportunity cost of £3m. If the SP is at £2 come Sep24 then under your meaning of the LTIP he seriously risks losing it all so those last 3 months he better 3 bag that share. Yeah I'm thinking that would give me sleepless nights. Not to mention all the £'s of my colleagues I'm risking. It's just a silly scenario. Why would anyone leave it all to the last minute. He's got 3 years to being it home. The clocks ticking now. Let's also not forget that if he gets the SP to £20 then he sells and makes £8m ish. He's already working on increasing that SP.

I excluded the DHSC because it distorts the figures and would not have proven your point.

£100m, £72m. Doesn't really matter what he has because he has more than enough to grow us from here.

The SP is not affected by comments on a BB, I agree with you there. What is affected is people's moods. People will listen more to you if you find a balance. A month ago you were well on the pro side. Now you've swung to the complete negative side. There's plenty of positives to discuss but you manage to find a silly scenario that would make it a negative.

Byp, firstly, I and others come on here to have a balanced discussion about our investment. If you look deep enough then most things will have a possible negative to them but to keep banging on about them and only about the negatives is imo just as damaging as the rampers we get on here.

Revenue, yes I can. Let's exclude DHSC as that was nothing to do with the level of covid in society:

2019 £0
2020 £73m
2021 £82m
2022 £41m
2023 £20m
2024 £10m

We are valued less than NAV with no need for a placing anytime soon so yes I see this as a slow decline. GM's time was 100% focussed on Covid so it doesn't surprise me that non covid revenue was only flat.

DA is shifting focus to non covid and has £100m to play with not to mention the platform that Covid has left behind to build from. We need a sales man in charge. 20% growth will prove to be miniscule. Not this year but 2023 I expect growth to be significantly higher.

R&D, the products going through CTDA have already brought in £250-300m of sales in less than 2 years. They'll continue to bring in millions throughout FY22 onwards. CTDA is just the UK, we have 55% of our sales ROTW. You also miss the point that these tests and instruments and transferable to non covid. I imagine the bulk of the R&D resource has already been spent on the likes of PROmate and Co-prep so now we can just leverage these in other markets. Huge potential and what we've all been talking about for several months. The R&D team proved they were too tier during covid. Soon they'll move to other arenas where they'll be required to replicate the exact same practices. They did it once, why doubt them this time.

Your comment on LTIP is ludicrous. Even if there was such a flaw in the plan, why would they let that happen. It would take one hell of a ramp to 7 bag in a few months. Oh and a lot of sleepless nights. That is you putting your Uber negative slant on everything. It's much more reasonable to believe that the 30% pa actually means pa. So yr 1 target of £4.60, Yr 2 £5.98 Yr 3 £7.77. That makes much more sense all round and easier to achieve and manage.

The BB has spoken. My positive post received 9 recommends Vs your negative posts 1. People here are aware of the risks and accepted them. Time for you to do the same I feel.

Thank you for your opinions byp.

Here's mine:
There's lots to be positive about this company. Why pretend otherwise. It's really not healthy to hold and be negative for such a long time, especially being a loose cannon trying to spread your negativity amongst fellow investors.

Covid income will never completely vanish but it will significantly reduce but SLOWLY. We have this covered in the forecast and in the SP. Rest assured it's priced in now.

DA has plans to switch it to non covid in the coming months. Work probably already started. £100m to make it happen. PROmate and Co-prep interchangeable between non covid and covid. Also 500+ non covid tests for him to prioritize and pick say 10-20 to CE mark. CE mark registration will cost money. This is no longer a barrier to entry like it is for other junior diagnostic companies. DA going to work on his sales department, after all it is is speciality. Growth potential here is enormous. You can wait until the future is spelled out to you or you can sniff the opportunity before it arises. By all means wait until we're back at £4-5, there'll still be plenty of growth from there.

Dispute could be years, could be months, could be weeks. A 100% loss is priced in so no major surprises from this SP level.

The LTIP means everything. If you can't understand that then, well I'll leave you with it.

New people, new roles. Yes they need bedding in but the more positive investors will believe that ncyt have proven they have a good track record for hiring top candidates (with the odd exception)

We have a huge pipeline if R&D from which we are due an update anytime, hopefully this month. We have an excellent track record at R&D so taking a swipe here stinks of desperation.

Hope? AIM is built on hope, but I'd rather put my hope into a profit making, cash rich, drastically undervalued company with huge growth potential. Aka ncyt.

I'm comfortable with my investment. You being uncomfortable with yours is a little draining for the rest of us genuine lth's.

What's people's thoughts on a JV with the silver or PGM to and then pump the cash into DSO so we can fast track Han**** and Brockman. Full production on both within 18 months churning 20mt per annum.

Need to beat BROCKMAN MINING to production if we can. They plan to pump 30mt pa through Port Hedland. That may suppress the iron ore price. In the short term however I see DSO exceeding $200 per tonne.

Get it whilst it's hot and all that.

Who knows. Maybe an internal review of past performance. Maybe new targets are perceived to be unachievable by some in the sales team. If some can achieve them then they are achievable so we just need the right people in the right positions. A new captain can lead to an increased in staff turnover. A good sign potentially but unfortunately we don't know enough.

Ok Phil, didn't intend to come across negative just trying to weigh up all sides where I can. Like I said before, it's another building block in place. GL

Phil, Robots and next gen warehousing does seem like it could be expensive imo, that's why I said it. I've then gone one step further and explained why I think it would be expensive. Some people disagree for various reasons which is fine but based on what I know and my logic then it will be the level of volume that determines how expensive or in fact how cheap it will be. Small volumes = expensive. Large volumes = cheap. We and the market are still to see the volumes so for now the markets sees it as potentially expensive. If we get an RNS next week saying we have received orders totalling £2m for January and £3m for February then we'll start seeing the cost benefit. Market still uncertain currently.

Phil, CM made many points that I agree with. I did not catch the low distribution costs comment. Correct me if I'm wrong but we don't know the distribution costs. We assume 50% of the RRP I believe. My point is pretty simple so not sure why your picking me up on the miniscule detail.

A robotics warehouse whilst saves on labour is very capital intensive with high maintenance and I.T costs and the idea whilst several years old is still somewhat a novelty which always comes with a premium price. Same/next day delivery will come with a premium price also. Like everyone else I don't know the costs but I made an assumption that it sounds expensive.

From Fabrics perspective the likely deal will involve a large fixed cost element to protect themselves from low volumes + a small variable cost per unit packed. That is business sense. Therefore, if Chill can only feed a small amount of volume through the system then the fixed costs will burn them. Hence my comment on the large volumes required.

Can Antonio and Trev see large orders on the horizon? This deal would suggest so. However, until the market sees hard evidence then this deal carries high risk.

FactoryPhil, it just sounds expensive. The kind of deal that would need volume to make it work.

Agree totally with what you say Citizen. Another building block in place for when the orders arrive. A confident step by the bod? Let's hope those orders arrive soon and then we can rerate from here.

The core objective of our partnership with Fabric is to maximise the online revenue stream. The market has responded slowly this morning. We don't know the terms of the deal. It sounds expensive so may eat into our margins initially. The benefit will come from feeding mass volumes through the system. Certainly a positive step but we still need to see the orders flowing before the market accepts that this is actually another positive RNS. Personally, I'm not topping up until I see the orders. Once the orders come, they'll be plenty of growth here.

The difficulty is that when this gets to 10p we'll likely be paying dividends, and lots of them. You'd have to factor that into what your shares are worth to you.

That's a decent budget. Good to know we are rubbing shoulders with the WHO.

A global initiative to get Covid-19 tests, treatments and vaccines to poorer nations is “running on fumes” because of a budget shortfall.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and other aid groups, the initiative has only received 5% of the donations sought to deliver on its aims this year.

Reuters reports that the Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator budgeted $23.4 billion (£17.27 billion) for its efforts from October 2021 to September 2022, of which it hoped $16.8 billion (£12.4 billion) would come in the form of grants from richer countries.

However, so far it has had just $814 million (£601 million) pledged, leaders of the initiative told a media briefing on Tuesday.

The ACT-Accelerator hub encompasses the COVAX initiative, which has focused on equitable access to vaccines. It also involves providing tests and treatments to low and middle-income countries, as well as personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers.

In addition to the WHO, the project is backed by organisations including the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, The Global Fund, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

WHO’s global ambassador for health financing and former UK prime minister Gordon Brown said: “That’s just a minuscule 5% of what we require. It is time to awaken the conscience of the world.”

Bruce Aylward, a senior WHO official who acts as coordinator for the initiative, said: “The global response is running on fumes.”

On Wednesday, a number of world leaders are set to support publicly the push for more funding, calling for the investment to end the emergency phase of the Covid-19 pandemic this year.

Imo and a few others here we don't need a JV to get Han**** producing. £30m capex. At today's Iron Ore prices that's 400,000 tonnes of Ore. That's about 4 months production. Build a bit of slack into it and let's say 6 months off take agreement and you have your capex sorted. We keep 100% of profits. Lavly jably

You can bet your bottom dollar that when Borris hears of this he'll be mopping them up by the billions. No need to validate, the Chinese have been doing this kind of thing for years so they'll be fine. Get 3 or 4 boat loads to get us going.

Chinese scientists develop new Covid test which they say is accurate as a PCR
Scientists in China say they have developed a new coronavirus test as accurate as a PCR test that gives results within four minutes.

PCR tests are seen as the most accurate and sensitive method of checking for Covid, but usually it takes several hours to get results.

Researchers at Fudan university in Shanghai say they have a solution, reports AFP, in the form of a sensor that uses microelectronics to analyse genetic material from swabs.

The findings were published in a peer-reviewed article published on Monday in the Nature Biomedical Engineering journal.

“We implemented an electromechanical biosensor for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 into an integrated and portable prototype device, and show that it detected (virus RNA) in less than four minutes,” the paper said.

The trial took samples from 33 people in Shanghai who were infected with Covid and were also tested using PCRs.

Thanks Max. I wasn't aware

Iron ore shovel ready in 12 months.
$143 per tonne currently
Costs less than $60
Let's assume $50 per tonne net profit
1.25mt pa
$62.5m annual cash flow
1p dividend say $40m
Reinvest remaining $20m into other projects
Rinse repeat

Once Han**** and Brockman fully explored and bashing out 15mt pa then that's $750m pa net cash flow. Now we're close to the 16p dividend.

Now add on EH
Now add on Munni Munni
Now add on Mexico

20p > 30p dividend

What else is he going to do with all that money.

Now