Member Info for DRB83

It certainly doesn't feel like it would be good but I do disagree with byp. There are many scenarios where people will buy tests. Many businesses will want to be seen as putting their employees and customers first. Many people have vulnerable loved ones at home and will want reassurances from work that thats not covid the person next to them is coughing around the office. BJ is trying to change the culture surrounding covid that it is just like flu and should be treated as such. We're not there yet. Culture takes a while to change. Even if 80% of people don't care for testing then that leaves 14m people in the UK that do.

We need to slowly build out revenues away from Covid but Covid will continue to generate us cash for years to come imo.

Heightened tensions in Ukraine - red day
Living with Covid plan revealed - red day
Speculation of Bio investment - blue day
R&D update - blue day
Another Bio RNS - blue day

The RNS's are still very significant whether bought off market or on. Bio aren't a fund or trader, they are building a stake not just to sell and make a few million, they are building for another reason. That may be positioning themselves for a hostile takeover and building their votes at a very low cost, or as part of a merger/JV.

If the buying stops then we can assume the merger agreement was for Bio to invest 4%

If the buying continues then it would be a fair assumption that a takeover attempt could be in play. How they got their 4% is irrelevant imo.

Will we see some Comms from ncyt next week to update us on what they know?

If it's a surprise to ncyt then will we see a defense play out? We have plenty of cash to defend a hostile takeover.

Either way, we'll hear more next week which is good news imo.

Thanks Larry, surely if Vatel do notify ncyt then the SP falls and Vatel get less for their remaining holding. Therefore best for them not to say anything. However, why not let the market know once you have done selling?

Secondly, ncyt clearly know that Vatel no longer have 4% (no longer showing on the website) so Vatel must have notified ncyt at some point, so where is the RNS? Have ncyt made a booboo? Don't really know a great deal about this kind of thing so it is a genuine question. Thanks

I imagine some II's will be sitting up in their seats wondering what Bio's angle is. I'm sure some will see that now is the time to buy. Could we have a snow ball effect. Imo

Assuming Bio are accumulating to hold which I think is a fairly strong assumption then what it is also doing is transferring shares from traders, short lenders, and fickle investors into Uber sticky hands and at a Uber fast rate. That to me signals a bottom and hopefully a end to all this volatility in the near future.

Excitement has perked up again.

Bio validating us lth's belief that ncyt is going places. The trolls had their way for a long time but we held strong knowing that sooner or later the tide would turn.

Is it a takeover? Is it a partnership? Have they finished at 4% or is there more to come? Whatever the answer, I'm sure we've lots more excitement to come next week. Well done lth's

If it was a hostile attempt then the cheaper they build up on the open market the more they will be will to pay once they were to make an offer. The weighted average effect.

What ever the SP action is pretty irrelevant at this point. What we do know following this week is that we have another successful company showing a lot of interest in us and we have one more test available for sale in the UK come March. It's all good

RBM, the term "priced in" doesn't mean the sp won't or can't go any lower. Its more of a reference to the mcap being less than the sum of its parts. The term has been used largely when we have been valued less than NAV. I agree that sentiment can cause huge disparities between mcaps and fundamentals as as happened here. It opens the doors for huge opportunities in the markets. That's why we are here.

I also agree that the value in ncyt is post covid. That's not to say covid won't be cash generating for some years to come. We are also in a very enviable position when it comes to post covid. Just waiting on DA to unlock the potential. It will come imo.

Exsig is the product in dispute.

The shorts, the trolls, the traders will always tell you that the bought a couple % from the bottom and sold a couple of % from the top. It's pointless them saying it as no one believes a word that comes out of their mouths.

Oh, I forgot to mention the small matter of a VOC in Spring that ignites pandemonium into a system that is no longer prepared for one. First place the gov will look is the CTDA register. POC testing, coming to a setting near you.

Also missed a potential update on our LFT products. Home antigen test and next gen antibody test. Back in Sept we were told of a upto 6 month delay. That is about 6 weeks away.

Covid testing isn't going to zero.

NHS and private care settings will still require them for both patients and staff. Both LFT's and PCR POC will be required imo. Pillar 1 testing which is NHS is currently around 100k tests per day.

There's always going to be a host of travel destinations requiring negative tests before entering their country.

There will be numerous businesses that want to keep control of covid outbreaks and protect their customers/employees i.e dentists, film, sport

People who visit vulnerable family will want to know or at least have some assurance that that sniffle they have is not something that could potentially kill or seriously harm their loved one. There's millions of vulnerable people in the UK who have millions more family members so that's millions more tests required.

There is still a huge market for LFT, LFT home tests and POC PCR tests. We are in 1 of the 3 at the moment in the UK. Hopefully we'll have news on the LFT front soon.

It's certainly better to be in the small amount of approved tests than out of it and zero covid revenue.

Sharabel, yes I missed the DHSC contract extension. It may or may not happen but worth keeping it at the fore.

B2, good question and I don't know. I suspect it would be a relatively high %. Probably easier to agree a merge or JV, assuming ncyt would want to.

I know several on here were spouting "no news until April", a pretty bold statement it was and a very unrealistic one at that so not sure what their angle was. Can't be trusted certainly.

Since then we have received 3 excellent updates. What's left?

More CTDA approvals
Dispute resolution update
News on bio
More TR1's
R&D update

Still plenty to come that will help propel us north of here.

It had to come byp. Better than not having it.

Demand has dropped for sure but it will still be there throughout the year in some form, come the 28th Feb supply is also going to drop significantly. Better to at least have the option to sell.

When the next VOC arrives in a couple of months imo then demand will again outstrip the severely restricted supply chain. They'll have to buy all they need from the handful of approved products.

Lewis, We and the market have known about it since November. It's not news.

What is news is that PROmate 2g is now approved for use post Feb 28th and

The PROmate® COVID-19 2G test is the first direct-to-PCR product to be added to the CTDA register of approved products

So since the "we'll get no news until April" crew arrived, we've had 3 great ones and zero bad ones. Not a great sixth sense you chaps have.

Not enough volume for a 1% increase in holdings imo. At best they may have bought an extra 710k by end of yesterday which means we would get a TR1 beginning of next week. Certainly not expecting one this week. Not from Bio anyway.

RBM, if you a referencing my post earlier about PI100 then your barking up the wrong tree. PI is Uber cautious and not backward about letting us know. However, my post was referencing this particular statement from PI

"I have been here many times, been burned by rampers"

He says he's not blaming the rampers but quotes that he got burned BY the rampers. Sounds like he's still bitter about it and sounds like blame to me, hence my post which was only about taking responsibility. Nothing to do with his Uber cautious approach.

Maybe PI's negative tone at 170 along with the likes of others on here cost a lot of PI's the opportunity of a 30%-40% gain. Maybe he's best just giving no advice at all because let's face it, no one knows what the SP will do from one day to the next.